Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Excelsior v PSV Eindhoven

Inicio: 2026-08-15 18:00 UTC

Final: Excelsior 1–2 PSV Eindhoven

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Excelsior (Local)

Predicción 15.30%6.54momio equitativo
EV +7.71%
Ventaja +1.09%
Kelly +1.28%
Crecimiento +0.098%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.04

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.67%15.32%15.25%17.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.006.186.007.0420.00%16.19%16.67%14.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

PSV Eindhoven (Visitante)

Predicción 65.93%1.52momio equitativo
EV -2.43%
Ventaja -1.64%
Kelly -5.06%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.48

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
63.11%65.85%65.99%68.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.331.411.421.4875.19%70.78%70.67%67.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 18.77%5.33momio equitativo
EV -1.44%
Ventaja -0.274%
Kelly -0.339%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.63%18.83%18.76%20.66%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.354.854.805.2522.99%20.64%20.83%19.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Excelsior (Local): 15.30%; PSV Eindhoven (Visitante): 65.93%; Empate: 18.77%. Para Excelsior (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.54. 13 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 7.04, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +7.71%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯7.04I 14.20%NM 13.67%EV +7.71%E +1.09%K +1.28%G +0.098%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.78%EV -6.38%E -4.50%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 18.55%EV -2.57%E -0.494%K -0.612%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-15 17:45
BetOnline.ag🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.77%EV +7.09%E +1.01%K +1.18%G +0.084%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -6.38%E -4.50%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.36%EV -1.44%E -0.274%K -0.339%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 17:25
LowVig.ag🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.77%EV +7.09%E +1.01%K +1.18%G +0.084%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -6.38%E -4.50%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.36%EV -1.44%E -0.274%K -0.339%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 17:25
BetUS🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.77%EV +7.09%E +1.01%K +1.18%G +0.084%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -6.38%E -4.50%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.36%EV -1.44%E -0.274%K -0.339%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 17:24
BetAnything🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.77%EV +7.09%E +1.01%K +1.18%G +0.084%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -6.38%E -4.50%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.36%EV -1.44%E -0.274%K -0.339%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 17:24
Unibet (NL)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.35%EV +3.27%E +0.484%K +0.569%G +0.019%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.89%EV -3.09%E -2.10%K -6.57%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.77%EV -8.01%E -1.63%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 17:54
Svenska Spel🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.16%EV +3.27%E +0.484%K +0.569%G +0.019%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.92%EV -4.41%E -3.04%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.91%EV -9.89%E -2.06%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-15 17:54
ATG (SE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.16%EV +3.27%E +0.484%K +0.569%G +0.019%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.92%EV -4.41%E -3.04%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.91%EV -9.89%E -2.06%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-15 17:55
Coolbet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.07%EV +3.27%E +0.484%K +0.569%G +0.019%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.84%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV -1.44%E -0.274%K -0.339%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 17:19
Bovada🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV +3.27%E +0.484%K +0.569%G +0.019%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.51%EV -8.36%E -6.02%K -21.44%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.58%EV -5.19%E -1.03%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 17:54
SportsBet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.86%EV +3.27%E +0.484%K +0.569%G +0.019%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.80%EV -9.02%E -6.54%K -23.74%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -4.26%E -0.834%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 17:24
Tipico (DE)🎯6.70I 14.93%NM 13.93%EV +2.50%E +0.374%K +0.439%G +0.011%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.12%EV -9.68%E -7.07%K -26.16%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -2.38%E -0.457%K -0.566%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 16:59
1xBet🎯6.65I 15.04%NM 14.57%EV +1.74%E +0.262%K +0.308%G +0.005%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.48%EV -2.43%E -1.64%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.94%EV -8.76%E -1.80%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-15 17:54
Betr (AU)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -0.555%E -0.085%K -0.101%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -1.44%E -0.274%K -0.339%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 17:15
Grosvenor🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -0.555%E -0.085%K -0.101%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -5.06%E -3.52%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -11.77%E -2.50%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 17:54
FanDuel🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -0.555%E -0.085%K -0.101%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.83%EV -9.68%E -7.07%K -26.16%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.87%EV -2.38%E -0.457%K -0.566%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 17:22
Bet Right🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.20%EV -0.555%E -0.085%K -0.101%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.35%EV -9.68%E -7.07%K -26.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -6.13%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 17:15
betfred_uk🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -0.555%E -0.085%K -0.101%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -10.34%E -7.60%K -28.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -6.13%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 17:53
BetRivers🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.96%EV -0.555%E -0.085%K -0.101%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -10.34%E -7.60%K -28.72%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -11.77%E -2.50%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 17:29
NordicBet🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.75%EV -2.09%E -0.326%K -0.386%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.57%EV -5.06%E -3.52%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.67%EV -9.89%E -2.06%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯6.35I 15.75%NM 14.69%EV -2.85%E -0.449%K -0.533%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.68%EV -6.38%E -4.50%K -15.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -10.83%E -2.28%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 17:54
Casumo🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -4.38%E -0.701%K -0.834%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -5.72%E -4.00%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -13.64%E -2.97%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 17:54
Unibet (SE)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -4.38%E -0.701%K -0.834%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -5.72%E -4.00%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -13.64%E -2.97%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 17:55
betPARX🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -4.38%E -0.701%K -0.834%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -5.72%E -4.00%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -13.64%E -2.97%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 17:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.81%EV -4.38%E -0.701%K -0.834%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.56%EV -9.68%E -7.07%K -26.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.63%EV -1.44%E -0.274%K -0.339%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-15 17:45
Codere (IT)🎯6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -5.14%E -0.830%K -0.989%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.73%EV -7.04%E -4.99%K -17.18%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -2.38%E -0.457%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 17:30
Unibet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.10%EV -6.67%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.42%EV -5.72%E -4.00%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -15.52%E -3.45%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 17:55
Bet Victor🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.06%E -3.52%K -11.51%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV -1.44%E -0.274%K -0.339%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 17:53
betano_uk🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.06%E -3.52%K -11.51%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV -1.44%E -0.274%K -0.339%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 17:55
DraftKings🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.19%EV -5.06%E -3.52%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.16%EV -8.01%E -1.63%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 17:54
Fanatics🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -6.38%E -4.50%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -6.13%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 17:55
Betway🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -5.06%E -3.52%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -10.83%E -2.28%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 17:54
PlayUp🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.12%EV -6.38%E -4.50%K -15.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.47%EV -10.83%E -2.28%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 17:54
PMU (FR)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.29%EV -7.04%E -4.99%K -17.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -17.40%E -3.95%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 17:54
TABtouch🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.29%EV -7.04%E -4.99%K -17.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -17.40%E -3.95%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 17:54
888sport🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -15.52%E -3.45%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 17:55
William Hill🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -15.52%E -3.45%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -15.52%E -3.45%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -15.52%E -3.45%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 17:55
Sky Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -10.34%E -7.60%K -28.72%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -13.64%E -2.97%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 17:24
Paddy Power🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.59%EV -12.32%E -9.26%K -37.32%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.65%EV -10.83%E -2.28%K -2.89%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-15 17:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.59%EV -12.32%E -9.26%K -37.32%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.65%EV -10.83%E -2.28%K -2.89%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-15 17:45
Betsson🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 16.02%EV -9.73%E -1.65%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.29%EV -3.09%E -2.10%K -6.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -9.89%E -2.06%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 17:55
NetBet (FR)🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.18%EV -9.73%E -1.65%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 65.36%EV -9.68%E -7.07%K -26.16%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -13.64%E -2.97%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-15 17:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.44%EV -11.26%E -1.94%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.97%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.59%EV -18.34%E -4.22%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-15 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.44%EV -11.26%E -1.94%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.97%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.59%EV -18.34%E -4.22%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-15 17:54
LiveScore Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.44%EV -11.26%E -1.94%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.97%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.59%EV -18.34%E -4.22%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-15 17:54
Unibet (UK)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%EV -12.03%E -2.09%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.84%EV -4.41%E -3.04%K -9.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -6.13%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 17:54
Betclic (FR)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -14.32%E -2.56%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.11%EV -5.06%E -3.52%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -17.40%E -3.95%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 17:55
Coral🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -15.85%E -2.88%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.89%EV -2.43%E -1.64%K -5.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -6.13%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 17:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -15.85%E -2.88%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.89%EV -2.43%E -1.64%K -5.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -6.13%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 17:55
BetMGM🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -15.85%E -2.88%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.89%EV -2.43%E -1.64%K -5.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -6.13%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 17:54
Unibet (FR)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -15.85%E -2.88%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.55%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.25%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.02%EV -10.83%E -2.28%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 17:54
Winamax (DE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.19%EV -18.91%E -3.57%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.60%EV -7.04%E -4.99%K -17.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -6.13%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-15 17:54
Winamax (FR)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.23%EV -20.44%E -3.93%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 64.48%EV -8.36%E -6.02%K -21.44%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.29%EV -8.01%E -1.63%K -2.05%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 17:54
BoyleSports🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.45%EV -23.50%E -4.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.17%EV -10.34%E -7.60%K -28.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.37%EV -10.83%E -2.28%K -2.89%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-15 17:18
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.78%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.50%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-08-15 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.78%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.50%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-08-15 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.78%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.50%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-08-15 17:55
Kalshi◎7.14I 14.01%NM 13.87%1.45I 68.97%NM 68.31%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.82%1.0%2026-08-15 17:50
Matchbook◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.73%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.26%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.01%1.1%2026-08-15 17:55
Smarkets◎7.00I 14.29%NM 14.05%1.46I 68.49%NM 67.38%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.56%1.6%2026-08-15 17:55