Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Excelsior v FC Utrecht

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 10:15 UTC

Final: Excelsior 1–2 FC Utrecht

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Excelsior (Local)

Prediction 42.66%2.34fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.33%42.65%42.68%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.182.202.2848.78%45.88%45.45%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Utrecht (Visit)

Prediction 31.88%3.14fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.377%
Kelly -0.557%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.89%31.90%31.89%32.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.932.943.1037.04%34.16%34.07%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.45%3.93fair odd
EV +1.82%
Edge +0.454%
Kelly +0.606%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.94%25.44%25.43%26.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.643.604.0030.30%27.46%27.78%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Excelsior (Local): 42.66%; FC Utrecht (Visit): 31.88%; Draw: 25.45%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.93. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.82%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.17%EV -9.55%E -4.51%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.89%EV -1.17%E -0.377%K -0.557%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.94%EV +1.82%E +0.454%K +0.606%G +0.011%4.4%2026-09-13 10:10
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.53%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.92%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.55%EV -0.728%E -0.187%K -0.251%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-13 10:09
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.53%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.92%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.55%EV -0.728%E -0.187%K -0.251%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-13 10:09
BetUS🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.49%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -0.728%E -0.187%K -0.251%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 10:10
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.39%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.79%EV -2.00%E -0.520%K -0.702%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 10:06
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.14%EV -4.00%E -1.78%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.31%EV -1.17%E -0.377%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -3.27%E -0.861%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-13 10:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.14%EV -4.00%E -1.78%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.31%EV -1.17%E -0.377%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -3.27%E -0.861%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-13 10:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.14%EV -4.00%E -1.78%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.31%EV -1.17%E -0.377%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -3.27%E -0.861%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-13 10:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.02%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.08%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -3.27%E -0.861%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-13 09:55
Pinnacle🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.39%EV -2.72%E -1.20%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.90%EV -3.40%E -1.12%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.71%EV -4.29%E -1.14%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-13 10:01
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.88%EV -5.28%E -2.38%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.73%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-13 10:01
LowVig.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.88%EV -5.28%E -2.38%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.73%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-13 10:00
BetAnything🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.88%EV -5.28%E -2.38%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.73%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-13 10:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.20%EV -4.43%E -1.98%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.59%EV -7.55%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.21%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 10:01
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.99%EV -4.00%E -1.78%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.81%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.20%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 09:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.03%EV -7.55%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-13 10:11
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.82%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 10:06
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.82%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 09:50
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.82%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 09:50
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.82%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 09:50
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.73%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -5.82%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 09:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -5.82%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 09:55
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.49%EV -10.40%E -4.95%K -9.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.49%EV -7.55%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.02%EV -7.09%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-13 10:06
Marathon Bet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.62%EV -6.56%E -3.00%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.74%EV -6.27%E -2.13%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.64%EV -7.35%E -2.02%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 10:06
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -4.00%E -1.78%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-13 10:00
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.65%EV -5.28%E -2.38%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.05%EV -2.76%E -0.906%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-13 10:05
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.65%EV -5.28%E -2.38%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.05%EV -2.76%E -0.906%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-13 10:05
Bovada🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.90%EV -4.43%E -1.98%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.03%EV -6.59%E -2.25%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 10:09
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 10:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -6.99%E -3.21%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.52%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 10:05
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -6.99%E -3.21%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.52%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 10:06
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -6.99%E -3.21%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.52%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 10:05
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -7.55%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-13 09:56
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -10.73%E -3.83%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-13 10:05
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -10.73%E -3.83%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-13 10:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -10.73%E -3.83%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-13 10:06
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -10.73%E -3.83%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-13 10:06
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 10:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.52%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -9.14%E -3.21%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-13 09:56
Betclic (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.11%EV -11.68%E -5.64%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.10%EV -11.37%E -4.09%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 09:54
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -12.54%E -6.12%K -11.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -10.73%E -3.83%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 09:56
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.05%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.90%EV -7.55%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -9.64%E -2.71%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 10:11
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.61%EV -7.42%E -3.42%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.34%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -9.64%E -2.71%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-13 10:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.71%EV -10.40%E -4.95%K -9.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.03%EV -10.73%E -3.83%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -9.64%E -2.71%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-13 09:55
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-13 10:00
BetRivers🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -8.70%E -4.06%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 10:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -8.70%E -4.06%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 10:06
PMU (FR)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -8.70%E -4.06%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 10:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -8.70%E -4.06%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 10:05
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -8.70%E -4.06%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 10:06
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.65%EV -10.40%E -4.95%K -9.46%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.76%EV -10.10%E -3.58%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.59%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-13 10:10
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -10.40%E -4.95%K -9.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -13.92%E -5.16%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-13 09:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.63%EV -10.40%E -4.95%K -9.46%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.41%EV -9.14%E -3.21%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -12.18%E -3.53%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-13 10:05
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -13.46%E -3.96%K -5.61%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 10:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -13.46%E -3.96%K -5.61%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 10:00
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.73%E -3.83%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -16.00%E -4.85%K -6.96%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-13 10:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.36I 42.37%NM 42.19%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.61%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.20%0.4%2026-09-13 10:11
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 42.52%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.75%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%0.9%2026-09-13 10:06
Smarkets2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%0.9%2026-09-13 10:11
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%0.9%2026-09-13 10:11
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%0.9%2026-09-13 10:11
Matchbook2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%0.9%2026-09-13 10:11