Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Excelsior v FC Utrecht

Inicio: 2026-09-13 10:15 UTC

Final: Excelsior 1–2 FC Utrecht

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Excelsior (Local)

Predicción 42.66%2.34momio equitativo
EV -2.72%
Ventaja -1.20%
Kelly -2.13%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.28

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.33%42.65%42.68%45.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.052.182.202.2848.78%45.88%45.45%43.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

FC Utrecht (Visitante)

Predicción 31.88%3.14momio equitativo
EV -1.17%
Ventaja -0.377%
Kelly -0.557%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.89%31.90%31.89%32.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.932.943.1037.04%34.16%34.07%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.45%3.93momio equitativo
EV +1.82%
Ventaja +0.454%
Kelly +0.606%
Crecimiento +0.011%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.94%25.44%25.43%26.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.643.604.0030.30%27.46%27.78%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Excelsior (Local): 42.66%; FC Utrecht (Visitante): 31.88%; Empate: 25.45%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.93. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.82%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.17%EV -9.55%E -4.51%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.89%EV -1.17%E -0.377%K -0.557%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.94%EV +1.82%E +0.454%K +0.606%G +0.011%4.4%2026-09-13 10:10
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.53%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.92%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.55%EV -0.728%E -0.187%K -0.251%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-13 10:09
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.53%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.92%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.55%EV -0.728%E -0.187%K -0.251%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-13 10:09
BetUS🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.49%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -0.728%E -0.187%K -0.251%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 10:10
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.39%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.79%EV -2.00%E -0.520%K -0.702%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 10:06
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.14%EV -4.00%E -1.78%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.31%EV -1.17%E -0.377%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -3.27%E -0.861%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-13 10:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.14%EV -4.00%E -1.78%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.31%EV -1.17%E -0.377%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -3.27%E -0.861%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-13 10:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.14%EV -4.00%E -1.78%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.31%EV -1.17%E -0.377%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -3.27%E -0.861%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-13 10:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.02%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.08%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -3.27%E -0.861%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-13 09:55
Pinnacle🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.39%EV -2.72%E -1.20%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.90%EV -3.40%E -1.12%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.71%EV -4.29%E -1.14%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-13 10:01
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.88%EV -5.28%E -2.38%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.73%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-13 10:01
LowVig.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.88%EV -5.28%E -2.38%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.73%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-13 10:00
BetAnything🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.88%EV -5.28%E -2.38%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.73%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-13 10:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.20%EV -4.43%E -1.98%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.59%EV -7.55%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.21%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 10:01
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.99%EV -4.00%E -1.78%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.81%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.20%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 09:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.03%EV -7.55%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-13 10:11
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.82%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 10:06
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.82%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 09:50
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.82%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 09:50
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.82%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 09:50
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.73%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -5.82%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 09:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -5.82%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 09:55
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.49%EV -10.40%E -4.95%K -9.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.49%EV -7.55%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.02%EV -7.09%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-13 10:06
Marathon Bet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.62%EV -6.56%E -3.00%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.74%EV -6.27%E -2.13%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.64%EV -7.35%E -2.02%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 10:06
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -4.00%E -1.78%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-13 10:00
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.65%EV -5.28%E -2.38%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.05%EV -2.76%E -0.906%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-13 10:05
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.65%EV -5.28%E -2.38%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.05%EV -2.76%E -0.906%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-13 10:05
Bovada🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.90%EV -4.43%E -1.98%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.03%EV -6.59%E -2.25%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 10:09
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -4.36%E -1.45%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 10:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -6.99%E -3.21%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.52%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 10:05
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -6.99%E -3.21%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.52%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 10:06
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -6.99%E -3.21%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.52%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 10:05
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -7.55%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-13 09:56
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -10.73%E -3.83%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-13 10:05
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -10.73%E -3.83%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-13 10:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -10.73%E -3.83%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-13 10:06
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -10.73%E -3.83%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-13 10:06
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 10:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.52%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -9.14%E -3.21%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-13 09:56
Betclic (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.11%EV -11.68%E -5.64%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.10%EV -11.37%E -4.09%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 09:54
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -12.54%E -6.12%K -11.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -10.73%E -3.83%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -8.36%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 09:56
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.05%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.90%EV -7.55%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -9.64%E -2.71%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 10:11
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.61%EV -7.42%E -3.42%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.34%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -9.64%E -2.71%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-13 10:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.71%EV -10.40%E -4.95%K -9.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.03%EV -10.73%E -3.83%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -9.64%E -2.71%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-13 09:55
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-13 10:00
BetRivers🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -8.70%E -4.06%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 10:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -8.70%E -4.06%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 10:06
PMU (FR)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -8.70%E -4.06%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 10:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -8.70%E -4.06%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 10:05
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -8.70%E -4.06%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 10:06
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.65%EV -10.40%E -4.95%K -9.46%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.76%EV -10.10%E -3.58%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.59%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-13 10:10
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -10.40%E -4.95%K -9.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -13.92%E -5.16%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-13 09:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.63%EV -10.40%E -4.95%K -9.46%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.41%EV -9.14%E -3.21%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -12.18%E -3.53%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-13 10:05
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -13.46%E -3.96%K -5.61%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 10:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -13.46%E -3.96%K -5.61%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 10:00
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.73%E -3.83%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -16.00%E -4.85%K -6.96%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-13 10:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.19%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.61%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.20%0.4%2026-09-13 10:11
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.52%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.75%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%0.9%2026-09-13 10:06
Smarkets◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%0.9%2026-09-13 10:11
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%0.9%2026-09-13 10:11
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%0.9%2026-09-13 10:11
Matchbook◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%0.9%2026-09-13 10:11