Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.17
assuming max odds 18.00
assuming max odds 9.70
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AZ Alkmaar (Local): 82.61%; Willem II (Visit): 6.24%; Draw: 11.15%. For Willem II (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 16.03. 19 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 18.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.26%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.15%EV -5.00%E -4.35%K -33.33%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV +12.26%E +0.681%K +0.721%G +0.088% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-09 06:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.15%EV -5.00%E -4.35%K -33.33%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV +12.26%E +0.681%K +0.721%G +0.088% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-09 06:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.49%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.20%EV +12.26%E +0.681%K +0.721%G +0.088% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV +0.386%E +0.043%K +0.048%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-08 18:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.53%EV -4.17%E -3.60%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.70%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.77%EV +0.386%E +0.043%K +0.048%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-08 01:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.01%EV -4.17%E -3.60%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.33%EV -5.19%E -0.611%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-08 01:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.01%EV -4.17%E -3.60%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.33%EV -5.19%E -0.611%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-08 01:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.37%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023% | 9.65I 10.36%NM 9.97%EV +7.64%E +0.791%K +0.883%G +0.067% | 4.0% | 2026-09-09 17:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.36%EV -6.65%E -5.89%K -51.17%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.03%EV +5.96%E +0.628%K +0.701%G +0.042% | 4.9% | 2026-09-08 12:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -5.19%E -0.611%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 12:33 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -5.19%E -0.611%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 12:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.13%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.49%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +0.386%E +0.043%K +0.048%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 22:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.13%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.49%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +0.386%E +0.043%K +0.048%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 21:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.13%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.49%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +0.386%E +0.043%K +0.048%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 12:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.68%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.48%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.84%EV -19.13%E -2.64%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-09 11:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.61%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000% | 16.85I 5.93%NM 5.62%EV +5.09%E +0.302%K +0.321%G +0.016% | 9.70I 10.31%NM 9.77%EV +8.19%E +0.845%K +0.942%G +0.077% | 5.5% | 2026-09-09 03:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.61%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000% | 16.85I 5.93%NM 5.62%EV +5.09%E +0.302%K +0.321%G +0.016% | 9.70I 10.31%NM 9.77%EV +8.19%E +0.845%K +0.942%G +0.077% | 5.5% | 2026-09-09 03:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.61%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000% | 16.85I 5.93%NM 5.62%EV +5.09%E +0.302%K +0.321%G +0.016% | 9.70I 10.31%NM 9.77%EV +8.19%E +0.845%K +0.942%G +0.077% | 5.5% | 2026-09-09 03:44 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.61%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000% | 16.85I 5.93%NM 5.62%EV +5.09%E +0.302%K +0.321%G +0.016% | 9.70I 10.31%NM 9.77%EV +8.19%E +0.845%K +0.942%G +0.077% | 5.5% | 2026-09-09 13:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.33%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000% | 16.65I 6.01%NM 5.67%EV +3.84%E +0.231%K +0.245%G +0.009% | 9.45I 10.58%NM 9.99%EV +5.40%E +0.572%K +0.640%G +0.035% | 5.9% | 2026-09-08 13:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.84%EV -5.00%E -4.35%K -33.33%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.95%EV -0.213%E -0.013%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.21%EV -5.19%E -0.611%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-08 01:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.68%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.89%EV -0.213%E -0.013%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.43%EV -7.98%E -0.967%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-09 13:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.96%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.88%EV -0.213%E -0.013%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.17%EV +3.17%E +0.343%K +0.385%G +0.012% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 14:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.39%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.87%EV -0.213%E -0.013%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-09 07:44 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.16%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.01%EV -3.33%E -0.215%K -0.230%G +0.000% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 10.83%EV -4.08%E -0.474%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-09 17:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.15%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV -6.45%E -0.430%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV +0.386%E +0.043%K +0.048%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-06 13:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.53%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.27%EV -6.45%E -0.430%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.20%EV -6.31%E -0.751%K -0.852%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-09 07:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -6.45%E -0.430%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-08 01:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -6.45%E -0.430%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-08 01:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -6.45%E -0.430%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-08 01:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -6.45%E -0.430%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-06 13:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.20%EV -6.65%E -5.89%K -51.17%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -6.45%E -0.430%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 18:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -6.45%E -0.430%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-09 13:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -9.13%E -8.30%K -91.30%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -6.45%E -0.430%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -5.19%E -0.611%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 18:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.61%EV -3.35%E -2.86%K -19.69%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.82%EV -12.69%E -0.906%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.57%EV -7.98%E -0.967%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-09 07:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.70%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV -12.69%E -0.906%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-08 01:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.40%EV -6.65%E -5.89%K -51.17%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV -12.69%E -0.906%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -5.19%E -0.611%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-09 06:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.21%EV -6.65%E -5.89%K -51.17%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -12.69%E -0.906%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-09 13:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.46%EV -3.35%E -2.86%K -19.69%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.33%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.21%EV -5.19%E -0.611%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-09 07:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.89%EV -3.35%E -2.86%K -19.69%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-09 07:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.35%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV +0.386%E +0.043%K +0.048%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-09 08:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.15%EV -5.00%E -4.35%K -33.33%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 10:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.29%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-07 15:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.29%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-07 15:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.29%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-07 15:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.80%EV -6.65%E -5.89%K -51.17%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-08 01:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.80%EV -6.65%E -5.89%K -51.17%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-08 01:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.80%EV -6.65%E -5.89%K -51.17%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-08 01:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.08%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.49%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.92%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-08 01:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.08%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.49%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.92%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-08 01:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.08%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.49%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.92%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-08 01:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 81.96%EV -9.96%E -9.13%K -110.62%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.87%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.17%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-09 12:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 81.36%EV -9.96%E -9.13%K -110.62%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.82%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.82%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-08 18:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 79.93%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.49%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.39%EV -25.16%E -2.10%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -21.92%E -3.13%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-09 07:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 80.95%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.49%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.81%EV -28.28%E -2.46%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.23%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-09 07:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 80.07%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.49%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.08%EV -31.40%E -2.85%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-09 07:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 79.78%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000% | 10.75I 9.30%NM 8.31%EV -32.96%E -3.07%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-09 07:48 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 86.03% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.99% | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.98% | 0.2% | 2026-09-09 13:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.03% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.70% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.27% | 1.4% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.03% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.70% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.27% | 1.4% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.65% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.91% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.45% | 1.8% | 2026-09-09 17:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.10% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.74% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.16% | 2.5% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |