Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

AZ Alkmaar v Willem II

Início: 2026-09-11 18:00 UTC

Final: AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Willem II

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

AZ Alkmaar (Local)

Previsão 82.61%1.21odd justa
EV -3.35%
Vantagem -2.86%
Kelly -19.69%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.17

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
79.78%82.52%82.56%84.61%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.091.131.131.1791.74%88.47%88.50%85.47%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Willem II (Visitante)

Previsão 6.24%16.03odd justa
EV +12.26%
Vantagem +0.681%
Kelly +0.721%
Crescimento +0.088%

pressupondo odds máximas de 18.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
5.20%6.36%6.25%8.31%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
10.7514.9315.0018.009.30%6.70%6.67%5.56%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 11.15%8.97odd justa
EV +8.19%
Vantagem +0.845%
Kelly +0.942%
Crescimento +0.077%

pressupondo odds máximas de 9.70

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
9.77%11.11%11.19%12.84%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
7.008.308.009.7014.29%12.05%12.50%10.31%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: AZ Alkmaar (Local): 82.61%; Willem II (Visitante): 6.24%; Empate: 11.15%. Para Willem II (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 16.03. 19 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 18.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +12.26%.

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Betsson🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.15%EV -5.00%E -4.35%K -33.33%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV +12.26%E +0.681%K +0.721%G +0.088%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-09 06:59
NordicBet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.15%EV -5.00%E -4.35%K -33.33%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV +12.26%E +0.681%K +0.721%G +0.088%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-09 06:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.49%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.20%EV +12.26%E +0.681%K +0.721%G +0.088%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV +0.386%E +0.043%K +0.048%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-08 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 83.53%EV -4.17%E -3.60%K -26.08%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.70%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.77%EV +0.386%E +0.043%K +0.048%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-08 01:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 83.01%EV -4.17%E -3.60%K -26.08%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.33%EV -5.19%E -0.611%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-08 01:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 83.01%EV -4.17%E -3.60%K -26.08%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.33%EV -5.19%E -0.611%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-08 01:40
1xBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.37%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023%9.65I 10.36%NM 9.97%EV +7.64%E +0.791%K +0.883%G +0.067%4.0%2026-09-09 17:15
Coolbet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.36%EV -6.65%E -5.89%K -51.17%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.03%EV +5.96%E +0.628%K +0.701%G +0.042%4.9%2026-09-08 12:15
Bet Victor🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -5.19%E -0.611%K -0.692%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 12:33
betano_uk🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -5.19%E -0.611%K -0.692%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 12:30
SportsBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.13%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.49%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +0.386%E +0.043%K +0.048%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 22:00
FanDuel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.13%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.49%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +0.386%E +0.043%K +0.048%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 21:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.13%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.49%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +0.386%E +0.043%K +0.048%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 12:25
PlayUp🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.68%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.48%EV +6.02%E +0.354%K +0.376%G +0.023%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.84%EV -19.13%E -2.64%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 11:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.61%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000%16.85I 5.93%NM 5.62%EV +5.09%E +0.302%K +0.321%G +0.016%9.70I 10.31%NM 9.77%EV +8.19%E +0.845%K +0.942%G +0.077%5.5%2026-09-09 03:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.61%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000%16.85I 5.93%NM 5.62%EV +5.09%E +0.302%K +0.321%G +0.016%9.70I 10.31%NM 9.77%EV +8.19%E +0.845%K +0.942%G +0.077%5.5%2026-09-09 03:45
BetUS🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.61%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000%16.85I 5.93%NM 5.62%EV +5.09%E +0.302%K +0.321%G +0.016%9.70I 10.31%NM 9.77%EV +8.19%E +0.845%K +0.942%G +0.077%5.5%2026-09-09 03:44
BetAnything🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.61%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000%16.85I 5.93%NM 5.62%EV +5.09%E +0.302%K +0.321%G +0.016%9.70I 10.31%NM 9.77%EV +8.19%E +0.845%K +0.942%G +0.077%5.5%2026-09-09 13:49
Pinnacle🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.33%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000%16.65I 6.01%NM 5.67%EV +3.84%E +0.231%K +0.245%G +0.009%9.45I 10.58%NM 9.99%EV +5.40%E +0.572%K +0.640%G +0.035%5.9%2026-09-08 13:30
Grosvenor🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.84%EV -5.00%E -4.35%K -33.33%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.95%EV -0.213%E -0.013%K -0.014%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.21%EV -5.19%E -0.611%K -0.692%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-08 01:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.68%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.89%EV -0.213%E -0.013%K -0.014%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.43%EV -7.98%E -0.967%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 13:30
Bovada🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.96%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.88%EV -0.213%E -0.013%K -0.014%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.17%EV +3.17%E +0.343%K +0.385%G +0.012%6.3%2026-09-06 14:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.39%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.87%EV -0.213%E -0.013%K -0.014%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 07:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.16%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.01%EV -3.33%E -0.215%K -0.230%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.83%EV -4.08%E -0.474%K -0.536%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 17:14
Fanatics🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.15%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV -6.45%E -0.430%K -0.461%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV +0.386%E +0.043%K +0.048%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-06 13:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.53%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.27%EV -6.45%E -0.430%K -0.461%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.20%EV -6.31%E -0.751%K -0.852%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 07:50
Casumo🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -6.45%E -0.430%K -0.461%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 01:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -6.45%E -0.430%K -0.461%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 01:40
betPARX🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -6.45%E -0.430%K -0.461%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 01:40
BoyleSports🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -6.45%E -0.430%K -0.461%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 13:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.20%EV -6.65%E -5.89%K -51.17%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -6.45%E -0.430%K -0.461%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-06 18:20
betfred_uk🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -6.45%E -0.430%K -0.461%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-09 13:30
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -9.13%E -8.30%K -91.30%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -6.45%E -0.430%K -0.461%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -5.19%E -0.611%K -0.692%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 18:05
BetMGM🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.61%EV -3.35%E -2.86%K -19.69%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.82%EV -12.69%E -0.906%K -0.976%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.57%EV -7.98%E -0.967%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-09 07:45
Unibet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.70%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV -12.69%E -0.906%K -0.976%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 01:40
DraftKings🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.40%EV -6.65%E -5.89%K -51.17%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV -12.69%E -0.906%K -0.976%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -5.19%E -0.611%K -0.692%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 06:55
Bet Right🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.21%EV -6.65%E -5.89%K -51.17%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -12.69%E -0.906%K -0.976%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 13:30
Coral🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.46%EV -3.35%E -2.86%K -19.69%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.33%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.21%EV -5.19%E -0.611%K -0.692%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 07:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.89%EV -3.35%E -2.86%K -19.69%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-09 07:44
Betway🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.35%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV +0.386%E +0.043%K +0.048%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 08:50
William Hill🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.15%EV -5.00%E -4.35%K -33.33%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 10:09
888sport🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.29%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-07 15:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.29%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-07 15:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.29%EV -5.83%E -5.11%K -41.61%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-07 15:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.80%EV -6.65%E -5.89%K -51.17%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-08 01:40
TABtouch🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.80%EV -6.65%E -5.89%K -51.17%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-08 01:40
BetRivers🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.80%EV -6.65%E -5.89%K -51.17%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-08 01:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.08%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.92%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-08 01:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.08%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.92%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-08 01:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.08%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.92%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-08 01:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 81.96%EV -9.96%E -9.13%K -110.62%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.87%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.17%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-09 12:35
Sky Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 81.36%EV -9.96%E -9.13%K -110.62%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.82%EV -18.92%E -1.46%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.82%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-08 18:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 79.93%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.49%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.39%EV -25.16%E -2.10%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -21.92%E -3.13%K -3.65%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-09 07:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 80.95%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.49%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.81%EV -28.28%E -2.46%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.23%EV -10.77%E -1.35%K -1.54%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-09 07:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 80.07%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.49%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.08%EV -31.40%E -2.85%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-09 07:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.78%EV -7.48%E -6.68%K -62.31%G +0.000%10.75I 9.30%NM 8.31%EV -32.96%E -3.07%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -16.35%E -2.18%K -2.51%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-09 07:48
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎1.16I 86.21%NM 86.03%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.99%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.98%0.2%2026-09-09 13:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.03%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.70%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.27%1.4%2026-09-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.03%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.70%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.27%1.4%2026-09-09 17:40
Smarkets◎1.16I 86.21%NM 84.65%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.91%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.45%1.8%2026-09-09 17:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 84.10%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.74%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.16%2.5%2026-09-09 17:40