Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.40
assuming max odds 9.00
assuming max odds 6.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AZ Alkmaar (Local): 69.35%; Heracles Almelo (Visit): 12.95%; Draw: 17.69%. For Heracles Almelo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.72. 20 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.59%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.02%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.79%EV +16.59%E +1.84%K +2.07%G +0.344% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.19%EV +6.15%E +1.02%K +1.23%G +0.076% | 3.0% | 2026-03-15 12:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.74%EV -5.68%E -4.17%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 8.70I 11.49%NM 10.90%EV +12.70%E +1.46%K +1.65%G +0.210% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.36%EV -13.31%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-15 13:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.74%EV -5.68%E -4.17%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 8.70I 11.49%NM 10.90%EV +12.70%E +1.46%K +1.65%G +0.210% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.36%EV -13.31%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.01%EV -7.06%E -5.27%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.35%EV +10.11%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.136% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.64%EV +2.61%E +0.450%K +0.543%G +0.014% | 3.6% | 2026-03-15 12:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.01%EV -7.06%E -5.27%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.35%EV +10.11%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.136% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.64%EV +2.61%E +0.450%K +0.543%G +0.014% | 3.6% | 2026-03-15 12:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.21%EV -8.45%E -6.40%K -26.41%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.21%EV +10.11%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.136% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV +1.72%E +0.300%K +0.363%G +0.006% | 4.9% | 2026-03-15 12:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -9.84%E -7.57%K -32.80%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +10.11%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.136% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV +1.72%E +0.300%K +0.363%G +0.006% | 6.1% | 2026-03-15 12:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -9.84%E -7.57%K -32.80%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +10.11%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.136% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV +1.72%E +0.300%K +0.363%G +0.006% | 6.1% | 2026-03-15 12:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -9.84%E -7.57%K -32.80%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +10.11%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.136% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV +1.72%E +0.300%K +0.363%G +0.006% | 6.1% | 2026-03-15 12:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -9.84%E -7.57%K -32.80%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +10.11%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.136% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV +1.72%E +0.300%K +0.363%G +0.006% | 6.1% | 2026-03-15 12:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.35%EV -10.53%E -8.16%K -36.32%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV +10.11%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.136% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -0.931%E -0.166%K -0.202%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-15 12:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.35%EV -10.53%E -8.16%K -36.32%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV +10.11%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.136% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -0.931%E -0.166%K -0.202%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-15 12:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.35%EV -10.53%E -8.16%K -36.32%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV +10.11%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.136% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -0.931%E -0.166%K -0.202%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-15 12:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV +3.64%E +0.455%K +0.519%G +0.019% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -2.70%E -0.491%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-15 13:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.17%EV -11.92%E -9.39%K -44.15%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV +3.64%E +0.455%K +0.519%G +0.019% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -0.931%E -0.166%K -0.202%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-15 12:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.12%EV -12.61%E -10.01%K -48.51%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV +3.64%E +0.455%K +0.519%G +0.019% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.52%EV -2.70%E -0.491%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-15 12:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.12%EV -12.61%E -10.01%K -48.51%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV +3.64%E +0.455%K +0.519%G +0.019% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.52%EV -2.70%E -0.491%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-15 12:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.61%EV -8.45%E -6.40%K -26.41%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.80%EV +2.34%E +0.296%K +0.339%G +0.008% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV -6.24%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.44%EV -6.37%E -4.72%K -18.20%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.27%EV +0.398%E +0.051%K +0.059%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -2.70%E -0.491%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-15 13:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.16%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.87%EV +0.398%E +0.051%K +0.059%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.97%EV -14.20%E -2.93%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.72%EV -4.29%E -3.11%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.50%EV -0.250%E -0.032%K -0.037%G +0.000% | 5.41I 18.48%NM 17.78%EV -4.29%E -0.793%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-15 13:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.07%EV -4.29%E -3.11%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 7.56I 13.23%NM 12.79%EV -2.06%E -0.273%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 5.64I 17.73%NM 17.14%EV -0.223%E -0.040%K -0.048%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.54%EV -3.60%E -2.59%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.89%EV -2.84%E -0.379%K -0.437%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.57%EV -2.70%E -0.491%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-15 13:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.54%EV -3.60%E -2.59%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.89%EV -2.84%E -0.379%K -0.437%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.57%EV -2.70%E -0.491%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-15 13:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.00%EV -5.68%E -4.17%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -2.84%E -0.379%K -0.437%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV -2.70%E -0.491%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-15 13:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.58%EV -6.37%E -4.72%K -18.20%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -2.84%E -0.379%K -0.437%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-15 13:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.13%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -2.84%E -0.379%K -0.437%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.43%EV -5.35%E -1.00%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.37%E -4.72%K -18.20%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -2.84%E -0.379%K -0.437%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-15 12:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -2.84%E -0.379%K -0.437%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-15 13:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -2.84%E -0.379%K -0.437%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-15 13:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -2.84%E -0.379%K -0.437%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-15 13:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.33%EV -9.15%E -6.98%K -29.50%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -2.84%E -0.379%K -0.437%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.38%EV -6.24%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-15 13:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.13%EV -5.68%E -4.17%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -6.08%E -0.839%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-15 13:23 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.13%EV -5.68%E -4.17%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -6.08%E -0.839%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.68%EV -8.45%E -6.40%K -26.41%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.96%EV -6.73%E -0.934%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.37%EV +0.838%E +0.147%K +0.178%G +0.001% | 7.2% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.18%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-15 13:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.18%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-15 13:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -4.98%E -3.64%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -4.98%E -3.64%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-15 13:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.36%EV -6.37%E -4.72%K -18.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-15 13:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.36%EV -6.37%E -4.72%K -18.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-15 13:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -9.84%E -7.57%K -32.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-15 13:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 67.30%EV -9.84%E -7.57%K -32.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.20%EV -23.40%E -5.40%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-03-15 13:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.14%EV -8.45%E -6.40%K -26.41%G +0.000% | 6.95I 14.39%NM 13.13%EV -9.97%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 17.72%EV -8.89%E -1.73%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-15 13:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.72%EV -4.98%E -3.64%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.85%EV -11.91%E -1.75%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -4.47%E -0.828%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.84%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.07%EV -12.56%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-15 13:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -15.80%E -2.43%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -15.97%E -3.36%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-15 12:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 67.86%EV -9.84%E -7.57%K -32.80%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.57%EV -15.80%E -2.43%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -15.97%E -3.36%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-03-15 13:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 69.18%EV -16.77%E -13.98%K -83.87%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 12.77%EV -15.80%E -2.43%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 18.05%EV -18.62%E -4.05%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 20.5% | 2026-03-15 13:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 68.18%EV -9.15%E -6.98%K -29.50%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.96%EV -17.09%E -2.67%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 68.60%EV -11.92%E -9.39%K -44.15%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.61%EV -17.09%E -2.67%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.78%EV -13.31%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-03-15 13:24 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 67.84%EV -10.53%E -8.16%K -36.32%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.12%EV -19.68%E -3.17%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.04%EV -14.20%E -2.93%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.74%EV -7.06%E -5.27%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -22.27%E -3.71%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.13%EV -6.24%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 67.03%EV -9.15%E -6.98%K -29.50%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.41%EV -26.16%E -4.59%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.56%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.86% | 0.5% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.91% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.28% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.82% | 0.8% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.41% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.78% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.81% | 0.8% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.51% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.77% | 1.0% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.17% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.91% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.92% | 1.9% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.86% | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.65% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.50% | 3.1% | 2026-03-15 13:25 |