L’École des cotes

AZ Alkmaar v Heracles Almelo

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-15 13:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

AZ Alkmaar (Local)

Prévision 69.35%1.44cote équitable
EV -2.90%
Avantage -2.07%
Kelly -7.26%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
67.03%69.35%69.40%73.02%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.201.331.331.4083.33%75.22%75.19%71.43%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Heracles Almelo (Visiteur)

Prévision 12.95%7.72cote équitable
EV +16.59%
Avantage +1.84%
Kelly +2.07%
Croissance +0.344%

avec la cote maximale 9.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
10.79%12.92%12.93%15.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
5.707.487.509.0017.54%13.37%13.33%11.11%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 17.69%5.65cote équitable
EV +6.15%
Avantage +1.02%
Kelly +1.23%
Croissance +0.076%

avec la cote maximale 6.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
16.19%17.73%17.67%20.20%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.335.285.256.0023.09%18.93%19.05%16.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet (NL)1.33I 75.19%NM 73.02%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.79%EV +16.59%E +1.84%K +2.07%G +0.344%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.19%EV +6.15%E +1.02%K +1.23%G +0.076%3.0%2026-03-15 12:40
Betsson1.36I 73.53%NM 69.74%EV -5.68%E -4.17%K -15.77%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.90%EV +12.70%E +1.46%K +1.65%G +0.210%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.36%EV -13.31%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 13:24
NordicBet1.36I 73.53%NM 69.74%EV -5.68%E -4.17%K -15.77%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.90%EV +12.70%E +1.46%K +1.65%G +0.210%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.36%EV -13.31%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 13:25
Svenska Spel1.34I 74.63%NM 72.01%EV -7.06%E -5.27%K -20.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.35%EV +10.11%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.136%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.64%EV +2.61%E +0.450%K +0.543%G +0.014%3.6%2026-03-15 12:30
ATG (SE)1.34I 74.63%NM 72.01%EV -7.06%E -5.27%K -20.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.35%EV +10.11%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.136%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.64%EV +2.61%E +0.450%K +0.543%G +0.014%3.6%2026-03-15 12:35
Unibet (SE)1.32I 75.76%NM 72.21%EV -8.45%E -6.40%K -26.41%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.21%EV +10.11%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.136%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV +1.72%E +0.300%K +0.363%G +0.006%4.9%2026-03-15 12:30
Casumo1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -9.84%E -7.57%K -32.80%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +10.11%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.136%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV +1.72%E +0.300%K +0.363%G +0.006%6.1%2026-03-15 12:30
Unibet1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -9.84%E -7.57%K -32.80%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +10.11%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.136%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV +1.72%E +0.300%K +0.363%G +0.006%6.1%2026-03-15 12:35
LeoVegas1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -9.84%E -7.57%K -32.80%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +10.11%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.136%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV +1.72%E +0.300%K +0.363%G +0.006%6.1%2026-03-15 12:35
betPARX1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -9.84%E -7.57%K -32.80%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +10.11%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.136%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV +1.72%E +0.300%K +0.363%G +0.006%6.1%2026-03-15 12:35
BetRivers1.29I 77.52%NM 72.35%EV -10.53%E -8.16%K -36.32%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV +10.11%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.136%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -0.931%E -0.166%K -0.202%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 12:35
TABtouch1.29I 77.52%NM 72.35%EV -10.53%E -8.16%K -36.32%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV +10.11%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.136%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -0.931%E -0.166%K -0.202%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 12:30
Grosvenor1.29I 77.52%NM 72.35%EV -10.53%E -8.16%K -36.32%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV +10.11%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.136%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -0.931%E -0.166%K -0.202%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 12:30
Bet Victor1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV +3.64%E +0.455%K +0.519%G +0.019%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -2.70%E -0.491%K -0.600%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-15 13:24
LeoVegas (SE)1.27I 78.74%NM 72.17%EV -11.92%E -9.39%K -44.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV +3.64%E +0.455%K +0.519%G +0.019%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -0.931%E -0.166%K -0.202%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-15 12:35
LiveScore Bet1.26I 79.37%NM 72.12%EV -12.61%E -10.01%K -48.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV +3.64%E +0.455%K +0.519%G +0.019%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.52%EV -2.70%E -0.491%K -0.600%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-15 12:35
Virgin Bet1.26I 79.37%NM 72.12%EV -12.61%E -10.01%K -48.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV +3.64%E +0.455%K +0.519%G +0.019%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.52%EV -2.70%E -0.491%K -0.600%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-15 12:35
Marathon Bet1.32I 75.76%NM 70.61%EV -8.45%E -6.40%K -26.41%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.80%EV +2.34%E +0.296%K +0.339%G +0.008%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV -6.24%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-15 13:25
Coolbet1.35I 74.07%NM 70.44%EV -6.37%E -4.72%K -18.20%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.27%EV +0.398%E +0.051%K +0.059%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -2.70%E -0.491%K -0.600%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-15 13:20
PlayUp1.33I 75.19%NM 69.16%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.87%EV +0.398%E +0.051%K +0.059%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.97%EV -14.20%E -2.93%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-15 13:25
Pinnacle1.38I 72.46%NM 69.72%EV -4.29%E -3.11%K -11.29%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.50%EV -0.250%E -0.032%K -0.037%G +0.000%5.41I 18.48%NM 17.78%EV -4.29%E -0.793%K -0.973%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-15 13:15
1xBet1.38I 72.46%NM 70.07%EV -4.29%E -3.11%K -11.29%G +0.000%7.56I 13.23%NM 12.79%EV -2.06%E -0.273%K -0.315%G +0.000%5.64I 17.73%NM 17.14%EV -0.223%E -0.040%K -0.048%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-15 13:25
LowVig.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 69.54%EV -3.60%E -2.59%K -9.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.89%EV -2.84%E -0.379%K -0.437%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.57%EV -2.70%E -0.491%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-15 13:10
BetOnline.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 69.54%EV -3.60%E -2.59%K -9.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.89%EV -2.84%E -0.379%K -0.437%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.57%EV -2.70%E -0.491%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-15 13:10
Fanatics1.36I 73.53%NM 70.00%EV -5.68%E -4.17%K -15.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -2.84%E -0.379%K -0.437%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV -2.70%E -0.491%K -0.600%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-15 13:00
Betr (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.58%EV -6.37%E -4.72%K -18.20%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -2.84%E -0.379%K -0.437%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 13:20
BetUS1.33I 75.19%NM 70.13%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -2.84%E -0.379%K -0.437%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.43%EV -5.35%E -1.00%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-15 13:25
Everygame1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.37%E -4.72%K -18.20%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -2.84%E -0.379%K -0.437%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-15 12:55
Bet Right1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -2.84%E -0.379%K -0.437%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-15 13:00
PointsBet (AU)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -2.84%E -0.379%K -0.437%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-15 13:00
SportsBet1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -2.84%E -0.379%K -0.437%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-15 13:00
FanDuel1.31I 76.34%NM 70.33%EV -9.15%E -6.98%K -29.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -2.84%E -0.379%K -0.437%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.38%EV -6.24%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-15 13:20
Bovada1.36I 73.53%NM 69.13%EV -5.68%E -4.17%K -15.77%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -6.08%E -0.839%K -0.973%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-15 13:23
BetAnything1.36I 73.53%NM 69.13%EV -5.68%E -4.17%K -15.77%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -6.08%E -0.839%K -0.973%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-15 13:25
Tipico (DE)1.32I 75.76%NM 70.68%EV -8.45%E -6.40%K -26.41%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.96%EV -6.73%E -0.934%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.37%EV +0.838%E +0.147%K +0.178%G +0.001%7.2%2026-03-15 13:25
Ladbrokes (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.26%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.18%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-15 13:20
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.26%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.18%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-15 13:00
Unibet (UK)1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -4.98%E -3.64%K -13.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-15 13:25
DraftKings1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -4.98%E -3.64%K -13.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-15 13:05
William Hill1.35I 74.07%NM 68.36%EV -6.37%E -4.72%K -18.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-15 13:24
Betway1.35I 74.07%NM 68.36%EV -6.37%E -4.72%K -18.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-15 13:24
888sport1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-15 13:25
Mr Green (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-15 13:25
888sport (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-15 13:25
Paddy Power1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -9.84%E -7.57%K -32.80%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-15 13:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.30I 76.92%NM 67.30%EV -9.84%E -7.57%K -32.80%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -9.32%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.20%EV -23.40%E -5.40%K -7.03%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-15 13:20
Fliff1.32I 75.76%NM 69.14%EV -8.45%E -6.40%K -26.41%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.13%EV -9.97%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.72%EV -8.89%E -1.73%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-15 13:20
Codere (IT)1.37I 72.99%NM 68.72%EV -4.98%E -3.64%K -13.47%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.85%EV -11.91%E -1.75%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -4.47%E -0.828%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-15 13:25
BetMGM1.40I 71.43%NM 67.84%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.26%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.07%EV -12.56%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-15 13:15
BoyleSports1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -7.76%E -5.83%K -23.51%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -15.80%E -2.43%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -15.97%E -3.36%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-15 12:55
Sky Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 67.86%EV -9.84%E -7.57%K -32.80%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.57%EV -15.80%E -2.43%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -15.97%E -3.36%K -4.26%G +0.000%13.4%2026-03-15 13:20
PMU (FR)1.20I 83.33%NM 69.18%EV -16.77%E -13.98%K -83.87%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 12.77%EV -15.80%E -2.43%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.05%EV -18.62%E -4.05%K -5.17%G +0.000%20.5%2026-03-15 13:20
Betclic (FR)1.31I 76.34%NM 68.18%EV -9.15%E -6.98%K -29.50%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.96%EV -17.09%E -2.67%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-15 13:25
NetBet (FR)1.27I 78.74%NM 68.60%EV -11.92%E -9.39%K -44.15%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.61%EV -17.09%E -2.67%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.78%EV -13.31%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-15 13:24
Parions Sport (FR)1.29I 77.52%NM 67.84%EV -10.53%E -8.16%K -36.32%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.12%EV -19.68%E -3.17%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.04%EV -14.20%E -2.93%K -3.69%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-15 13:25
Winamax (DE)1.34I 74.63%NM 67.74%EV -7.06%E -5.27%K -20.78%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -22.27%E -3.71%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.13%EV -6.24%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-15 13:25
Winamax (FR)1.31I 76.34%NM 67.03%EV -9.15%E -6.98%K -29.50%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.41%EV -26.16%E -4.59%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.56%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-15 13:25
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.86%0.5%2026-03-15 13:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.38I 72.46%NM 71.91%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.28%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.82%0.8%2026-03-15 13:25
Matchbook1.37I 72.99%NM 72.41%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.78%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.81%0.8%2026-03-15 13:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.51%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.77%1.0%2026-03-15 13:25
Smarkets1.36I 73.53%NM 72.17%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.91%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.92%1.9%2026-03-15 13:25
Kalshi1.35I 74.07%NM 71.86%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.65%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.50%3.1%2026-03-15 13:25