Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.79
assuming max odds 4.46
assuming max odds 4.40
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AZ Alkmaar (Local): 55.23%; Heerenveen (Visit): 22.61%; Draw: 22.16%. For Heerenveen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.42. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.46, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.841%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.06%EV -5.55%E -3.25%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 4.46I 22.42%NM 21.49%EV +0.841%E +0.189%K +0.243%G +0.002% | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.45%EV -5.40%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.02%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.99%EV -2.10%E -0.485%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.99%EV -4.07%E -0.939%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 13:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.93%EV -7.76%E -4.65%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.57%EV -2.10%E -0.485%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.50%EV -8.05%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.42%EV -1.13%E -0.632%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66%EV -2.78%E -0.646%K -0.841%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.92%EV -5.84%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-04-12 14:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -2.78%E -0.646%K -0.841%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -4.73%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 14:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -2.78%E -0.646%K -0.841%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -4.73%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.13%EV -1.13%E -0.632%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.80%EV -3.91%E -0.919%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.07%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-12 14:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.13%EV -1.13%E -0.632%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.80%EV -3.91%E -0.919%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.07%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-12 14:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.41%EV -3.89%E -2.24%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.68%EV -3.91%E -0.919%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.91%EV -2.51%E -0.572%K -0.740%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.34%E -1.91%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.26%EV -5.00%E -2.91%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.63%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV -4.73%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.24%EV -3.34%E -1.91%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 14:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.44%E -2.57%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.39%EV -3.89%E -2.24%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-12 14:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.55%E -3.25%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.41%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -5.84%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -7.76%E -4.65%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75%EV -4.73%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-12 14:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -7.76%E -4.65%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75%EV -4.73%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-12 14:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.76%E -4.65%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -8.31%E -5.01%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-12 14:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -5.55%E -3.25%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -4.73%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.89%E -2.24%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-12 14:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.89%E -2.24%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-12 14:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.89%E -2.24%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.96%EV -5.55%E -3.25%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.11%EV -5.84%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-12 14:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.96%EV -5.55%E -3.25%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.11%EV -5.84%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -4.44%E -2.57%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-12 14:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -5.55%E -3.25%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%EV -5.00%E -2.91%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-12 14:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%EV -5.00%E -2.91%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-12 14:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -7.21%E -4.29%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.71%EV -9.97%E -6.12%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-12 14:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -5.84%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-12 14:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-12 14:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.19%EV -7.21%E -4.29%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.49%E -3.16%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 14:18 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.19%EV -7.21%E -4.29%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.49%E -3.16%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 14:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.19%EV -7.21%E -4.29%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.49%E -3.16%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 14:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.10%EV -8.86%E -5.37%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-12 14:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -10.52%E -6.49%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-12 14:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.77%EV -4.44%E -2.57%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -10.69%E -2.71%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.77%EV -4.44%E -2.57%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -10.69%E -2.71%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.71%EV -12.73%E -8.06%K -21.95%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.28%EV -10.69%E -2.71%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.01%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.92%EV -8.31%E -5.01%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.38%EV -11.82%E -3.03%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.93%EV -10.52%E -6.49%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.82%EV -11.82%E -3.03%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.25%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-04-12 14:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.44%EV -10.52%E -6.49%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.52%EV -15.21%E -4.06%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 52.77%EV -10.52%E -6.49%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.80%EV -15.21%E -4.06%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.43%EV -22.46%E -6.42%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -7.76%E -4.65%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -18.60%E -5.17%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.97% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 0.9% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.52% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.98% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50% | 1.1% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.52% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.98% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50% | 1.1% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.52% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.98% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50% | 1.1% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.86% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.55% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.58% | 1.8% | 2026-04-12 14:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.97% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.26% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.77% | 2.1% | 2026-04-12 14:20 |