La escuela de los momios

AZ Alkmaar v Heerenveen

Inicio: 2026-04-12 14:45 UTC

Final: AZ Alkmaar 3–0 Heerenveen

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

AZ Alkmaar (Local)

Predicción 55.23%1.81momio equitativo
EV -1.13%
Ventaja -0.632%
Kelly -1.43%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.79

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.77%55.09%55.26%56.06%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.581.701.701.7963.29%58.86%58.82%55.87%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Heerenveen (Visitante)

Predicción 22.61%4.42momio equitativo
EV +0.841%
Ventaja +0.189%
Kelly +0.243%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.46

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.49%22.70%22.63%24.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.604.094.104.4627.78%24.42%24.39%22.42%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 22.16%4.51momio equitativo
EV -2.51%
Ventaja -0.572%
Kelly -0.740%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.36%22.21%22.11%24.43%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.504.134.104.4028.57%24.22%24.39%22.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.06%EV -5.55%E -3.25%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.49%EV +0.841%E +0.189%K +0.243%G +0.002%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.45%EV -5.40%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-12 14:30
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 56.02%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.99%EV -2.10%E -0.485%K -0.630%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.99%EV -4.07%E -0.939%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 13:59
Marathon Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 55.93%EV -7.76%E -4.65%K -11.58%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.57%EV -2.10%E -0.485%K -0.630%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.50%EV -8.05%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 14:30
Unibet (NL)1.79I 55.87%NM 54.42%EV -1.13%E -0.632%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66%EV -2.78%E -0.646%K -0.841%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.92%EV -5.84%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.7%2026-04-12 14:20
NordicBet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -2.78%E -0.646%K -0.841%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -4.73%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 14:20
Betsson1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -2.78%E -0.646%K -0.841%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -4.73%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 14:00
Svenska Spel1.79I 55.87%NM 54.13%EV -1.13%E -0.632%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.80%EV -3.91%E -0.919%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.07%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-12 14:20
ATG (SE)1.79I 55.87%NM 54.13%EV -1.13%E -0.632%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.80%EV -3.91%E -0.919%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.07%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-12 14:20
Pinnacle1.74I 57.47%NM 55.41%EV -3.89%E -2.24%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.68%EV -3.91%E -0.919%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.91%EV -2.51%E -0.572%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-12 14:30
Coral1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.34%E -1.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-12 14:00
Coolbet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.26%EV -5.00%E -2.91%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.63%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV -4.73%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 14:30
Unibet (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.24%EV -3.34%E -1.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 14:19
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.44%E -2.57%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 14:01
Unibet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.39%EV -3.89%E -2.24%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 14:20
Codere (IT)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.55%E -3.25%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 14:00
Unibet (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.41%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -5.84%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 14:00
FanDuel1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -7.76%E -4.65%K -11.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75%EV -4.73%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 14:19
Tipico (DE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -7.76%E -4.65%K -11.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75%EV -4.73%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 14:20
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.76%E -4.65%K -11.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-12 14:01
SportsBet1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -8.31%E -5.01%K -12.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 14:20
DraftKings1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -5.55%E -3.25%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -4.73%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 14:00
Casumo1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.89%E -2.24%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 14:20
betPARX1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.89%E -2.24%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 14:20
BetMGM1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.89%E -2.24%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 14:00
BetUS1.71I 58.48%NM 54.96%EV -5.55%E -3.25%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.11%EV -5.84%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 14:20
BetAnything1.71I 58.48%NM 54.96%EV -5.55%E -3.25%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.11%EV -5.84%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 14:00
BetRivers1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -4.44%E -2.57%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 14:20
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:30
Everygame1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:00
Fanatics1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -5.55%E -3.25%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 14:00
Grosvenor1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%EV -5.00%E -2.91%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-12 14:19
TABtouch1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%EV -5.00%E -2.91%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-12 14:19
Bet Right1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 14:30
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -7.21%E -4.29%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 14:00
Betclic (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 55.71%EV -9.97%E -6.12%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 14:19
PointsBet (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -5.84%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 14:30
888sport1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 14:01
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 14:01
888sport (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 14:01
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 14:19
LeoVegas1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 14:19
PMU (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.19%EV -7.21%E -4.29%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.49%E -3.16%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 14:18
Virgin Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 54.19%EV -7.21%E -4.29%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.49%E -3.16%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 14:20
LiveScore Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 54.19%EV -7.21%E -4.29%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.49%E -3.16%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 14:20
Unibet (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.10%EV -8.86%E -5.37%K -13.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-12 14:20
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -10.52%E -6.49%K -16.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-12 14:20
LowVig.ag1.73I 57.80%NM 53.77%EV -4.44%E -2.57%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -10.69%E -2.71%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-12 14:01
BetOnline.ag1.73I 57.80%NM 53.77%EV -4.44%E -2.57%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -10.69%E -2.71%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -9.16%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-12 14:00
NetBet (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 55.71%EV -12.73%E -8.06%K -21.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.28%EV -10.69%E -2.71%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.01%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-12 14:00
Winamax (DE)1.66I 60.24%NM 54.92%EV -8.31%E -5.01%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.38%EV -11.82%E -3.03%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-12 14:01
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 54.93%EV -10.52%E -6.49%K -16.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.82%EV -11.82%E -3.03%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.25%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-12 14:20
Winamax (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 54.44%EV -10.52%E -6.49%K -16.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.52%EV -15.21%E -4.06%K -5.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -11.38%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-12 14:01
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 52.77%EV -10.52%E -6.49%K -16.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.80%EV -15.21%E -4.06%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.43%EV -22.46%E -6.42%K -8.98%G +0.000%17.0%2026-04-12 14:30
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -7.76%E -4.65%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -18.60%E -5.17%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -6.95%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-12 14:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.77I 56.50%NM 55.97%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%0.9%2026-04-12 14:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.52%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.98%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50%1.1%2026-04-12 14:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.52%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.98%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50%1.1%2026-04-12 14:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.52%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.98%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50%1.1%2026-04-12 14:30
Kalshi1.79I 55.87%NM 54.86%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.55%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.58%1.8%2026-04-12 14:20
Smarkets1.75I 57.14%NM 55.97%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.26%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.77%2.1%2026-04-12 14:20