Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

AZ Alkmaar v Go Ahead Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 16:45 UTC

Final: AZ Alkmaar 5–2 Go Ahead Eagles

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AZ Alkmaar (Local)

Prediction 70.49%1.42fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -2.51%
Kelly -9.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.58%70.36%70.57%73.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.321.321.3778.13%75.63%75.76%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Go Ahead Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 12.61%7.93fair odd
EV +13.51%
Edge +1.50%
Kelly +1.69%
Growth +0.228%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.61%12.55%12.65%14.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.487.509.0016.00%13.37%13.33%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.90%5.92fair odd
EV +1.41%
Edge +0.235%
Kelly +0.283%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.82%17.09%16.78%19.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.455.506.0020.83%18.36%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AZ Alkmaar (Local): 70.49%; Go Ahead Eagles (Visit): 12.61%; Draw: 16.90%. For Go Ahead Eagles (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.93. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
betano_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.90%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.61%EV +13.51%E +1.50%K +1.69%G +0.228%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV +1.41%E +0.235%K +0.283%G +0.004%4.7%2026-08-29 16:40
NordicBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.93%EV -4.85%E -3.59%K -13.84%G +0.000%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.61%EV +12.25%E +1.38%K +1.55%G +0.190%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.46%EV -18.02%E -3.72%K -4.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 16:40
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.93%EV -4.85%E -3.59%K -13.84%G +0.000%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.61%EV +12.25%E +1.38%K +1.55%G +0.190%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.46%EV -18.02%E -3.72%K -4.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 16:40
1xBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.57%EV -4.85%E -3.59%K -13.84%G +0.000%8.65I 11.56%NM 11.17%EV +9.10%E +1.05%K +1.19%G +0.108%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.25%EV -5.35%E -0.955%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-29 16:35
BetUS🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -6.25%E -4.70%K -18.95%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV +7.21%E +0.848%K +0.961%G +0.069%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -7.04%E -1.28%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 15:55
Bet Victor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.01%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.90%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.17%EV +7.21%E +0.848%K +0.961%G +0.069%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.82%EV +1.41%E +0.235%K +0.283%G +0.004%5.4%2026-08-29 16:34
Coolbet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.96%EV -6.96%E -5.27%K -21.75%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.51%EV +4.06%E +0.492%K +0.559%G +0.023%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.52%EV -2.81%E -0.489%K -0.592%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 16:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.75%EV -4.85%E -3.59%K -13.84%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.11%EV +0.902%E +0.113%K +0.129%G +0.001%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.14%EV +1.41%E +0.235%K +0.283%G +0.004%3.2%2026-08-29 16:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.90%EV -5.55%E -4.14%K -16.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.04%EV +0.902%E +0.113%K +0.129%G +0.001%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.06%EV +1.41%E +0.235%K +0.283%G +0.004%3.8%2026-08-29 16:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.90%EV -5.55%E -4.14%K -16.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.04%EV +0.902%E +0.113%K +0.129%G +0.001%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.06%EV +1.41%E +0.235%K +0.283%G +0.004%3.8%2026-08-29 16:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.71%EV -6.96%E -5.27%K -21.75%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV +0.902%E +0.113%K +0.129%G +0.001%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -2.81%E -0.489%K -0.592%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 16:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.91%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.90%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV +0.902%E +0.113%K +0.129%G +0.001%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.40%EV -3.66%E -0.642%K -0.778%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-29 16:06
SportsBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.72%EV -6.96%E -5.27%K -21.75%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV +0.902%E +0.113%K +0.129%G +0.001%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.61%EV -10.42%E -1.97%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 16:15
FanDuel🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.88%EV -7.66%E -5.85%K -24.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV +0.902%E +0.113%K +0.129%G +0.001%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -10.42%E -1.97%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 16:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.80%EV -9.78%E -7.64%K -34.93%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV +0.902%E +0.113%K +0.129%G +0.001%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -7.04%E -1.28%K -1.56%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 16:25
Pinnacle🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.77%EV -4.14%E -3.04%K -11.50%G +0.000%7.99I 12.52%NM 12.05%EV +0.776%E +0.097%K +0.111%G +0.001%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.19%EV -5.35%E -0.955%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-29 16:30
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.56%EV -6.25%E -4.70%K -18.95%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.94%EV -2.25%E -0.290%K -0.333%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -15.49%E -3.10%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-29 16:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.17%EV -3.44%E -2.51%K -9.28%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.82%EV -5.40%E -0.721%K -0.831%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 17.01%EV -4.50%E -0.797%K -0.968%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-29 14:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.17%EV -3.44%E -2.51%K -9.28%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.82%EV -5.40%E -0.721%K -0.831%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 17.01%EV -4.50%E -0.797%K -0.968%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-29 14:50
BetAnything🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.17%EV -3.44%E -2.51%K -9.28%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.82%EV -5.40%E -0.721%K -0.831%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 17.01%EV -4.50%E -0.797%K -0.968%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-29 14:50
DraftKings🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.84%EV -5.55%E -4.14%K -16.32%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.66%EV -5.40%E -0.721%K -0.831%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.51%EV -2.81%E -0.489%K -0.592%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 16:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.99%EV -6.25%E -4.70%K -18.95%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -5.40%E -0.721%K -0.831%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -2.81%E -0.489%K -0.592%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 16:20
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.99%EV -6.25%E -4.70%K -18.95%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -5.40%E -0.721%K -0.831%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -2.81%E -0.489%K -0.592%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 16:40
Casumo🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -6.96%E -5.27%K -21.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -5.40%E -0.721%K -0.831%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV -5.35%E -0.955%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 16:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -6.96%E -5.27%K -21.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -5.40%E -0.721%K -0.831%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV -5.35%E -0.955%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 16:40
betPARX🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -6.96%E -5.27%K -21.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -5.40%E -0.721%K -0.831%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV -5.35%E -0.955%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 16:40
Bovada🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.24%EV -6.25%E -4.70%K -18.95%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -5.40%E -0.721%K -0.831%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -8.73%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-29 16:39
Fanatics🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.30%EV -7.66%E -5.85%K -24.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -5.40%E -0.721%K -0.831%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.24%EV -2.81%E -0.489%K -0.592%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 16:10
betfred_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.90%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -5.40%E -0.721%K -0.831%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -7.04%E -1.28%K -1.56%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-29 16:30
Bet Right🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.38%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.90%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -5.40%E -0.721%K -0.831%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -11.26%E -2.15%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-29 16:30
Paddy Power🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -9.07%E -7.03%K -31.29%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -5.40%E -0.721%K -0.831%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -15.49%E -3.10%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-29 16:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -9.07%E -7.03%K -31.29%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -5.40%E -0.721%K -0.831%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -15.49%E -3.10%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-29 16:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.97%EV -6.25%E -4.70%K -18.95%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.76%EV -6.67%E -0.901%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.27%EV -1.97%E -0.339%K -0.410%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 16:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.61%EV -6.96%E -5.27%K -21.75%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.60%EV -6.67%E -0.901%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 16.79%EV -6.19%E -1.12%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 16:20
BetMGM🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.37%EV -4.85%E -3.59%K -13.84%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.10%EV -8.56%E -1.18%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.52%EV -2.81%E -0.489%K -0.592%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 16:08
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.05%EV -4.85%E -3.59%K -13.84%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.45%EV -2.81%E -0.489%K -0.592%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 16:06
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.05%EV -4.85%E -3.59%K -13.84%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.45%EV -2.81%E -0.489%K -0.592%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 16:05
Betway🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.53%EV -4.85%E -3.59%K -13.84%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -7.04%E -1.28%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 16:31
Unibet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.00%EV -6.96%E -5.27%K -21.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -7.04%E -1.28%K -1.56%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-29 16:40
BetRivers🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -6.96%E -5.27%K -21.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -11.26%E -2.15%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 16:05
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -6.25%E -4.70%K -18.95%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -15.49%E -3.10%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-29 14:50
William Hill🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -6.25%E -4.70%K -18.95%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -15.49%E -3.10%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-29 14:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -6.25%E -4.70%K -18.95%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -15.49%E -3.10%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-29 14:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -6.25%E -4.70%K -18.95%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -15.49%E -3.10%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-29 14:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.88%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.14%EV -10.42%E -1.97%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-29 16:40
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -11.26%E -2.15%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-29 16:35
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -15.49%E -3.10%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-29 16:20
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -11.71%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -18.87%E -3.93%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-29 16:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.30%EV -9.78%E -7.64%K -34.93%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.04%EV -12.97%E -1.88%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.66%EV -8.73%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-29 16:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.60%EV -9.07%E -7.03%K -31.29%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.30%EV -14.86%E -2.20%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.10%EV -11.26%E -2.15%K -2.65%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-29 16:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.60%EV -9.07%E -7.03%K -31.29%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.30%EV -14.86%E -2.20%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.10%EV -11.26%E -2.15%K -2.65%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-29 16:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.60%EV -9.07%E -7.03%K -31.29%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.30%EV -14.86%E -2.20%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.10%EV -11.26%E -2.15%K -2.65%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-29 16:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.02%EV -8.37%E -6.44%K -27.90%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -18.02%E -2.77%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.97%EV -3.66%E -0.642%K -0.778%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-29 16:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.58%EV -5.55%E -4.14%K -16.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -18.02%E -2.77%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.48%EV -17.18%E -3.51%K -4.41%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-29 16:23
NetBet (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 68.33%EV -7.66%E -5.85%K -24.72%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.77%EV -18.02%E -2.77%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.90%EV -15.49%E -3.10%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-29 16:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.40%EV -9.07%E -7.03%K -31.29%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.32%EV -21.17%E -3.39%K -4.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.28%EV -7.04%E -1.28%K -1.56%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-29 16:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.38I 72.46%NM 71.83%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.78%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%0.9%2026-08-29 16:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.38I 72.46%NM 71.83%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.78%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%0.9%2026-08-29 16:35
Matchbook1.38I 72.46%NM 71.83%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.78%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%0.9%2026-08-29 16:31
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.38I 72.46%NM 71.61%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.74%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65%1.2%2026-08-29 16:40
Kalshi1.37I 72.99%NM 71.56%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.77%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.67%2.0%2026-08-29 16:05
Smarkets1.37I 72.99%NM 71.41%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.12%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.47%2.2%2026-08-29 16:35