Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

AZ Alkmaar v Fortuna Sittard

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 16:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AZ Alkmaar (Local)

Prediction 72.23%1.38fair odd
EV -1.76%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -4.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.17%72.14%72.20%76.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.281.281.3683.33%78.25%78.13%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fortuna Sittard (Visit)

Prediction 11.40%8.77fair odd
EV +19.69%
Edge +1.88%
Kelly +2.07%
Growth +0.408%

assuming max odds 10.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.24%11.34%11.50%13.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.758.678.5410.5014.81%11.53%11.72%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.37%6.11fair odd
EV +10.48%
Edge +1.55%
Kelly +1.82%
Growth +0.191%

assuming max odds 6.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.37%16.52%16.29%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.735.756.7522.22%17.46%17.39%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AZ Alkmaar (Local): 72.23%; Fortuna Sittard (Visit): 11.40%; Draw: 16.37%. For Fortuna Sittard (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.77. 25 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.69%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.82%EV -7.54%E -5.89%K -26.93%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.24%EV +19.69%E +1.88%K +2.07%G +0.408%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.93%EV +6.39%E +0.983%K +1.16%G +0.074%3.0%2026-04-04 16:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.82%EV -7.54%E -5.89%K -26.93%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.24%EV +19.69%E +1.88%K +2.07%G +0.408%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.93%EV +6.39%E +0.983%K +1.16%G +0.074%3.0%2026-04-04 16:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.39%EV -8.26%E -6.51%K -30.61%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.24%EV +19.69%E +1.88%K +2.07%G +0.408%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.37%EV +10.48%E +1.55%K +1.82%G +0.191%3.1%2026-04-04 16:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.74%EV -9.71%E -7.77%K -38.83%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.47%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV +4.75%E +0.743%K +0.880%G +0.042%5.6%2026-04-04 16:40
Unibet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.74%EV -9.71%E -7.77%K -38.83%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.47%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV +4.75%E +0.743%K +0.880%G +0.042%5.6%2026-04-04 16:39
Casumo🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.89%EV -10.43%E -8.41%K -43.46%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV +4.75%E +0.743%K +0.880%G +0.042%6.3%2026-04-04 16:40
betPARX🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.89%EV -10.43%E -8.41%K -43.46%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV +4.75%E +0.743%K +0.880%G +0.042%6.3%2026-04-04 16:40
TABtouch🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -11.15%E -9.07%K -48.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV +2.30%E +0.368%K +0.438%G +0.010%7.3%2026-04-04 16:40
BetRivers🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -11.15%E -9.07%K -48.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV +2.30%E +0.368%K +0.438%G +0.010%7.3%2026-04-04 16:39
Grosvenor🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -11.15%E -9.07%K -48.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV +2.30%E +0.368%K +0.438%G +0.010%7.3%2026-04-04 16:39
LeoVegas🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.92%EV -11.88%E -9.73%K -53.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.82%EV +2.30%E +0.368%K +0.438%G +0.010%8.0%2026-04-04 16:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.92%EV -11.88%E -9.73%K -53.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.82%EV +2.30%E +0.368%K +0.438%G +0.010%8.0%2026-04-04 16:39
Coolbet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.03%EV -6.82%E -5.29%K -23.51%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.05%EV +8.29%E +0.873%K +0.975%G +0.081%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -1.79%E -0.299%K -0.359%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 16:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.58%EV -13.32%E -11.10%K -66.60%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV +8.29%E +0.873%K +0.975%G +0.081%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.87%EV -0.157%E -0.026%K -0.031%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 16:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.58%EV -13.32%E -11.10%K -66.60%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV +8.29%E +0.873%K +0.975%G +0.081%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.87%EV -0.157%E -0.026%K -0.031%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 16:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.58%EV -13.32%E -11.10%K -66.60%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV +8.29%E +0.873%K +0.975%G +0.081%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.87%EV -0.157%E -0.026%K -0.031%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 16:39
NordicBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.05%EV -4.65%E -3.52%K -14.54%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.34%EV +4.87%E +0.529%K +0.594%G +0.029%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.61%EV -11.61%E -2.15%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 16:39
Betsson🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.05%EV -4.65%E -3.52%K -14.54%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.34%EV +4.87%E +0.529%K +0.594%G +0.029%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.61%EV -11.61%E -2.15%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 16:39
1xBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 71.33%EV -1.76%E -1.30%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.18I 10.89%NM 10.57%EV +4.64%E +0.506%K +0.568%G +0.026%5.36I 18.66%NM 18.10%EV -12.27%E -2.29%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-04 16:39
Bet Victor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.61%EV +2.59%E +0.288%K +0.324%G +0.008%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -1.79%E -0.299%K -0.359%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 16:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.53%EV -8.26%E -6.51%K -30.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +2.59%E +0.288%K +0.324%G +0.008%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.10%EV -5.07%E -0.874%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 16:10
Bet Right🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -8.99%E -7.13%K -34.56%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV +2.59%E +0.288%K +0.324%G +0.008%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -1.79%E -0.299%K -0.359%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 16:30
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV +2.59%E +0.288%K +0.324%G +0.008%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 16:14
LowVig.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.84%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.91%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.01%EV +0.311%E +0.035%K +0.040%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.15%EV -1.79%E -0.299%K -0.359%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 16:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.84%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.91%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.01%EV +0.311%E +0.035%K +0.040%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.15%EV -1.79%E -0.299%K -0.359%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 16:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.05%EV -7.54%E -5.89%K -26.93%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.69%EV -0.259%E -0.030%K -0.033%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.26%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 16:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.32%EV -6.82%E -5.29%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.72%EV -0.829%E -0.095%K -0.108%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.96%EV -9.98%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 16:39
Pinnacle🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.52%EV -4.65%E -3.52%K -14.54%G +0.000%8.57I 11.67%NM 11.17%EV -2.31%E -0.270%K -0.305%G +0.000%5.87I 17.04%NM 16.31%EV -3.92%E -0.668%K -0.805%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-04 16:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.82%EV -7.54%E -5.89%K -26.93%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV -3.11%E -0.366%K -0.414%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 16:19
SportsBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.29%EV -7.54%E -5.89%K -26.93%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -3.11%E -0.366%K -0.414%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -9.98%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 16:39
BetMGM🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.81%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.91%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.58%EV -5.96%E -0.722%K -0.822%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.61%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 16:30
BetUS🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.43%EV -6.82%E -5.29%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.32%EV -5.96%E -0.722%K -0.822%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 12:35
BetAnything🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.43%EV -6.82%E -5.29%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.32%EV -5.96%E -0.722%K -0.822%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 12:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.55%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 16:39
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.55%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.55%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 16:30
DraftKings🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.86%EV -5.37%E -4.10%K -17.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 16:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.12%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.16%EV -5.07%E -0.874%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 16:19
Bovada🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.55%EV -5.37%E -4.10%K -17.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.74%EV -8.34%E -1.49%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 16:35
Fanatics🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -6.82%E -5.29%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 16:30
Everygame🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -9.98%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 16:20
FanDuel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.38%EV -8.26%E -6.51%K -30.61%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.13%EV -6.70%E -1.18%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 16:39
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 16:30
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 16:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 16:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 16:30
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -9.71%E -7.77%K -38.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-04 16:40
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -14.51%E -1.93%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -9.98%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 16:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 71.90%EV -10.43%E -8.41%K -43.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.89%EV -14.51%E -1.93%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.21%EV -9.98%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-04 16:18
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -9.71%E -7.77%K -38.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -14.51%E -1.93%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-04 16:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 71.00%EV -10.43%E -8.41%K -43.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.74%EV -14.51%E -1.93%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.26%EV -16.53%E -3.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-04 16:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 69.23%EV -9.71%E -7.77%K -38.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.54%EV -14.51%E -1.93%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.23%EV -26.35%E -5.85%K -7.53%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-04 16:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 70.77%EV -10.43%E -8.41%K -43.46%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 12.36%EV -19.07%E -2.69%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.87%EV -14.89%E -2.86%K -3.54%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-04 16:39
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -20.21%E -2.89%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-04 16:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.51%EV -7.54%E -5.89%K -26.93%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.37%EV -23.06%E -3.42%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.12%EV -8.34%E -1.49%K -1.81%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-04 16:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.47%EV -8.26%E -6.51%K -30.61%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.26%EV -23.06%E -3.42%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.27%EV -9.98%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-04 16:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.93%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%0.7%2026-04-04 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.93%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%0.7%2026-04-04 16:40
Matchbook1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.93%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%0.7%2026-04-04 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.34I 74.63%NM 74.07%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%0.8%2026-04-04 16:40
Kalshi1.35I 74.07%NM 73.29%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.88%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.83%1.1%2026-04-04 16:40
Smarkets1.34I 74.63%NM 73.47%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.84%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.69%1.6%2026-04-04 16:40