L’École des cotes

AZ Alkmaar v Fortuna Sittard

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-04 16:45 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

AZ Alkmaar (Local)

Prévision 72.23%1.38cote équitable
EV -1.76%
Avantage -1.30%
Kelly -4.90%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.36

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
69.17%72.14%72.20%76.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.201.281.281.3683.33%78.25%78.13%73.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Fortuna Sittard (Visiteur)

Prévision 11.40%8.77cote équitable
EV +19.69%
Avantage +1.88%
Kelly +2.07%
Croissance +0.408%

avec la cote maximale 10.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
9.24%11.34%11.50%13.37%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
6.758.678.5410.5014.81%11.53%11.72%9.52%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 16.37%6.11cote équitable
EV +10.48%
Avantage +1.55%
Kelly +1.82%
Croissance +0.191%

avec la cote maximale 6.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
14.37%16.52%16.29%19.23%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.505.735.756.7522.22%17.46%17.39%14.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
ATG (SE)1.28I 78.13%NM 75.82%EV -7.54%E -5.89%K -26.93%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.24%EV +19.69%E +1.88%K +2.07%G +0.408%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.93%EV +6.39%E +0.983%K +1.16%G +0.074%3.0%2026-04-04 16:39
Svenska Spel1.28I 78.13%NM 75.82%EV -7.54%E -5.89%K -26.93%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.24%EV +19.69%E +1.88%K +2.07%G +0.408%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.93%EV +6.39%E +0.983%K +1.16%G +0.074%3.0%2026-04-04 16:40
Unibet (NL)1.27I 78.74%NM 76.39%EV -8.26%E -6.51%K -30.61%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.24%EV +19.69%E +1.88%K +2.07%G +0.408%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.37%EV +10.48%E +1.55%K +1.82%G +0.191%3.1%2026-04-04 16:39
Unibet (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 75.74%EV -9.71%E -7.77%K -38.83%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.47%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV +4.75%E +0.743%K +0.880%G +0.042%5.6%2026-04-04 16:40
Unibet1.25I 80.00%NM 75.74%EV -9.71%E -7.77%K -38.83%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.47%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV +4.75%E +0.743%K +0.880%G +0.042%5.6%2026-04-04 16:39
Casumo1.24I 80.65%NM 75.89%EV -10.43%E -8.41%K -43.46%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV +4.75%E +0.743%K +0.880%G +0.042%6.3%2026-04-04 16:40
betPARX1.24I 80.65%NM 75.89%EV -10.43%E -8.41%K -43.46%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV +4.75%E +0.743%K +0.880%G +0.042%6.3%2026-04-04 16:40
TABtouch1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -11.15%E -9.07%K -48.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV +2.30%E +0.368%K +0.438%G +0.010%7.3%2026-04-04 16:40
BetRivers1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -11.15%E -9.07%K -48.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV +2.30%E +0.368%K +0.438%G +0.010%7.3%2026-04-04 16:39
Grosvenor1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -11.15%E -9.07%K -48.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV +2.30%E +0.368%K +0.438%G +0.010%7.3%2026-04-04 16:39
LeoVegas1.22I 81.97%NM 75.92%EV -11.88%E -9.73%K -53.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.82%EV +2.30%E +0.368%K +0.438%G +0.010%8.0%2026-04-04 16:39
LeoVegas (SE)1.22I 81.97%NM 75.92%EV -11.88%E -9.73%K -53.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.82%EV +2.30%E +0.368%K +0.438%G +0.010%8.0%2026-04-04 16:39
Coolbet1.29I 77.52%NM 74.03%EV -6.82%E -5.29%K -23.51%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.05%EV +8.29%E +0.873%K +0.975%G +0.081%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -1.79%E -0.299%K -0.359%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 16:20
PMU (FR)1.20I 83.33%NM 75.58%EV -13.32%E -11.10%K -66.60%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV +8.29%E +0.873%K +0.975%G +0.081%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.87%EV -0.157%E -0.026%K -0.031%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 16:40
Virgin Bet1.20I 83.33%NM 75.58%EV -13.32%E -11.10%K -66.60%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV +8.29%E +0.873%K +0.975%G +0.081%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.87%EV -0.157%E -0.026%K -0.031%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 16:39
LiveScore Bet1.20I 83.33%NM 75.58%EV -13.32%E -11.10%K -66.60%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV +8.29%E +0.873%K +0.975%G +0.081%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.87%EV -0.157%E -0.026%K -0.031%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 16:39
NordicBet1.32I 75.76%NM 72.05%EV -4.65%E -3.52%K -14.54%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.34%EV +4.87%E +0.529%K +0.594%G +0.029%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.61%EV -11.61%E -2.15%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 16:39
Betsson1.32I 75.76%NM 72.05%EV -4.65%E -3.52%K -14.54%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.34%EV +4.87%E +0.529%K +0.594%G +0.029%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.61%EV -11.61%E -2.15%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 16:39
1xBet1.36I 73.53%NM 71.33%EV -1.76%E -1.30%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.18I 10.89%NM 10.57%EV +4.64%E +0.506%K +0.568%G +0.026%5.36I 18.66%NM 18.10%EV -12.27%E -2.29%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-04 16:39
Bet Victor1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.61%EV +2.59%E +0.288%K +0.324%G +0.008%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -1.79%E -0.299%K -0.359%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 16:40
Tipico (DE)1.27I 78.74%NM 73.53%EV -8.26%E -6.51%K -30.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +2.59%E +0.288%K +0.324%G +0.008%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.10%EV -5.07%E -0.874%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 16:10
Bet Right1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -8.99%E -7.13%K -34.56%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV +2.59%E +0.288%K +0.324%G +0.008%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -1.79%E -0.299%K -0.359%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 16:30
PlayUp1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV +2.59%E +0.288%K +0.324%G +0.008%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 16:14
LowVig.ag1.33I 75.19%NM 72.84%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.91%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.01%EV +0.311%E +0.035%K +0.040%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.15%EV -1.79%E -0.299%K -0.359%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 16:40
BetOnline.ag1.33I 75.19%NM 72.84%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.91%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.01%EV +0.311%E +0.035%K +0.040%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.15%EV -1.79%E -0.299%K -0.359%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 16:40
Betr (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 73.05%EV -7.54%E -5.89%K -26.93%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.69%EV -0.259%E -0.030%K -0.033%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.26%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 16:20
Marathon Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 72.32%EV -6.82%E -5.29%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.72%EV -0.829%E -0.095%K -0.108%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.96%EV -9.98%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 16:39
Pinnacle1.32I 75.76%NM 72.52%EV -4.65%E -3.52%K -14.54%G +0.000%8.57I 11.67%NM 11.17%EV -2.31%E -0.270%K -0.305%G +0.000%5.87I 17.04%NM 16.31%EV -3.92%E -0.668%K -0.805%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-04 16:35
PointsBet (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 72.82%EV -7.54%E -5.89%K -26.93%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV -3.11%E -0.366%K -0.414%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 16:19
SportsBet1.28I 78.13%NM 72.29%EV -7.54%E -5.89%K -26.93%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -3.11%E -0.366%K -0.414%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -9.98%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 16:39
BetMGM1.33I 75.19%NM 71.81%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.91%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.58%EV -5.96%E -0.722%K -0.822%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.61%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 16:30
BetUS1.29I 77.52%NM 72.43%EV -6.82%E -5.29%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.32%EV -5.96%E -0.722%K -0.822%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 12:35
BetAnything1.29I 77.52%NM 72.43%EV -6.82%E -5.29%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.32%EV -5.96%E -0.722%K -0.822%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 12:34
Unibet (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 71.55%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 16:39
Coral1.33I 75.19%NM 71.55%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 71.55%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 16:30
DraftKings1.31I 76.34%NM 71.86%EV -5.37%E -4.10%K -17.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 16:40
Codere (IT)1.30I 76.92%NM 72.12%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.16%EV -5.07%E -0.874%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 16:19
Bovada1.31I 76.34%NM 71.55%EV -5.37%E -4.10%K -17.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.74%EV -8.34%E -1.49%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 16:35
Fanatics1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -6.82%E -5.29%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 16:30
Everygame1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -9.98%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 16:20
FanDuel1.27I 78.74%NM 72.38%EV -8.26%E -6.51%K -30.61%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.13%EV -6.70%E -1.18%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 16:39
888sport1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 16:30
William Hill1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 16:30
Mr Green (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 16:30
888sport (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 16:30
Paddy Power1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -9.71%E -7.77%K -38.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-04 16:40
Betway1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -14.51%E -1.93%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -9.98%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 16:35
Betclic (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 71.90%EV -10.43%E -8.41%K -43.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.89%EV -14.51%E -1.93%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.21%EV -9.98%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-04 16:18
Sky Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -9.71%E -7.77%K -38.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -14.51%E -1.93%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-04 16:40
NetBet (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 71.00%EV -10.43%E -8.41%K -43.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.74%EV -14.51%E -1.93%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.26%EV -16.53%E -3.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-04 16:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 69.23%EV -9.71%E -7.77%K -38.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.54%EV -14.51%E -1.93%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.23%EV -26.35%E -5.85%K -7.53%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-04 16:09
Unibet (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 70.77%EV -10.43%E -8.41%K -43.46%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 12.36%EV -19.07%E -2.69%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.87%EV -14.89%E -2.86%K -3.54%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-04 16:39
BoyleSports1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -20.21%E -2.89%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-04 16:39
Winamax (DE)1.28I 78.13%NM 70.51%EV -7.54%E -5.89%K -26.93%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.37%EV -23.06%E -3.42%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.12%EV -8.34%E -1.49%K -1.81%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-04 16:39
Winamax (FR)1.27I 78.74%NM 70.47%EV -8.26%E -6.51%K -30.61%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.26%EV -23.06%E -3.42%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.27%EV -9.98%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-04 16:39
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.93%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%0.7%2026-04-04 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.93%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%0.7%2026-04-04 16:40
Matchbook1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.93%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%0.7%2026-04-04 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.34I 74.63%NM 74.07%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%0.8%2026-04-04 16:40
Kalshi1.35I 74.07%NM 73.29%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.88%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.83%1.1%2026-04-04 16:40
Smarkets1.34I 74.63%NM 73.47%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.84%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.69%1.6%2026-04-04 16:40