La escuela de los momios

AZ Alkmaar v Fortuna Sittard

Inicio: 2026-04-04 16:45 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

AZ Alkmaar (Local)

Predicción 72.23%1.38momio equitativo
EV -1.76%
Ventaja -1.30%
Kelly -4.90%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.36

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
69.17%72.14%72.20%76.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.201.281.281.3683.33%78.25%78.13%73.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Fortuna Sittard (Visitante)

Predicción 11.40%8.77momio equitativo
EV +19.69%
Ventaja +1.88%
Kelly +2.07%
Crecimiento +0.408%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 10.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
9.24%11.34%11.50%13.37%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.758.678.5410.5014.81%11.53%11.72%9.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 16.37%6.11momio equitativo
EV +10.48%
Ventaja +1.55%
Kelly +1.82%
Crecimiento +0.191%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.37%16.52%16.29%19.23%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.505.735.756.7522.22%17.46%17.39%14.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)1.28I 78.13%NM 75.82%EV -7.54%E -5.89%K -26.93%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.24%EV +19.69%E +1.88%K +2.07%G +0.408%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.93%EV +6.39%E +0.983%K +1.16%G +0.074%3.0%2026-04-04 16:39
Svenska Spel1.28I 78.13%NM 75.82%EV -7.54%E -5.89%K -26.93%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.24%EV +19.69%E +1.88%K +2.07%G +0.408%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.93%EV +6.39%E +0.983%K +1.16%G +0.074%3.0%2026-04-04 16:40
Unibet (NL)1.27I 78.74%NM 76.39%EV -8.26%E -6.51%K -30.61%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.24%EV +19.69%E +1.88%K +2.07%G +0.408%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.37%EV +10.48%E +1.55%K +1.82%G +0.191%3.1%2026-04-04 16:39
Unibet (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 75.74%EV -9.71%E -7.77%K -38.83%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.47%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV +4.75%E +0.743%K +0.880%G +0.042%5.6%2026-04-04 16:40
Unibet1.25I 80.00%NM 75.74%EV -9.71%E -7.77%K -38.83%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.47%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV +4.75%E +0.743%K +0.880%G +0.042%5.6%2026-04-04 16:39
Casumo1.24I 80.65%NM 75.89%EV -10.43%E -8.41%K -43.46%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV +4.75%E +0.743%K +0.880%G +0.042%6.3%2026-04-04 16:40
betPARX1.24I 80.65%NM 75.89%EV -10.43%E -8.41%K -43.46%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV +4.75%E +0.743%K +0.880%G +0.042%6.3%2026-04-04 16:40
TABtouch1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -11.15%E -9.07%K -48.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV +2.30%E +0.368%K +0.438%G +0.010%7.3%2026-04-04 16:40
BetRivers1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -11.15%E -9.07%K -48.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV +2.30%E +0.368%K +0.438%G +0.010%7.3%2026-04-04 16:39
Grosvenor1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -11.15%E -9.07%K -48.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV +2.30%E +0.368%K +0.438%G +0.010%7.3%2026-04-04 16:39
LeoVegas1.22I 81.97%NM 75.92%EV -11.88%E -9.73%K -53.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.82%EV +2.30%E +0.368%K +0.438%G +0.010%8.0%2026-04-04 16:39
LeoVegas (SE)1.22I 81.97%NM 75.92%EV -11.88%E -9.73%K -53.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +13.99%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.217%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.82%EV +2.30%E +0.368%K +0.438%G +0.010%8.0%2026-04-04 16:39
Coolbet1.29I 77.52%NM 74.03%EV -6.82%E -5.29%K -23.51%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.05%EV +8.29%E +0.873%K +0.975%G +0.081%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -1.79%E -0.299%K -0.359%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 16:20
PMU (FR)1.20I 83.33%NM 75.58%EV -13.32%E -11.10%K -66.60%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV +8.29%E +0.873%K +0.975%G +0.081%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.87%EV -0.157%E -0.026%K -0.031%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 16:40
Virgin Bet1.20I 83.33%NM 75.58%EV -13.32%E -11.10%K -66.60%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV +8.29%E +0.873%K +0.975%G +0.081%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.87%EV -0.157%E -0.026%K -0.031%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 16:39
LiveScore Bet1.20I 83.33%NM 75.58%EV -13.32%E -11.10%K -66.60%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV +8.29%E +0.873%K +0.975%G +0.081%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.87%EV -0.157%E -0.026%K -0.031%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 16:39
NordicBet1.32I 75.76%NM 72.05%EV -4.65%E -3.52%K -14.54%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.34%EV +4.87%E +0.529%K +0.594%G +0.029%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.61%EV -11.61%E -2.15%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 16:39
Betsson1.32I 75.76%NM 72.05%EV -4.65%E -3.52%K -14.54%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.34%EV +4.87%E +0.529%K +0.594%G +0.029%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.61%EV -11.61%E -2.15%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 16:39
1xBet1.36I 73.53%NM 71.33%EV -1.76%E -1.30%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.18I 10.89%NM 10.57%EV +4.64%E +0.506%K +0.568%G +0.026%5.36I 18.66%NM 18.10%EV -12.27%E -2.29%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-04 16:39
Bet Victor1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.61%EV +2.59%E +0.288%K +0.324%G +0.008%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -1.79%E -0.299%K -0.359%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 16:40
Tipico (DE)1.27I 78.74%NM 73.53%EV -8.26%E -6.51%K -30.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +2.59%E +0.288%K +0.324%G +0.008%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.10%EV -5.07%E -0.874%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 16:10
Bet Right1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -8.99%E -7.13%K -34.56%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV +2.59%E +0.288%K +0.324%G +0.008%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -1.79%E -0.299%K -0.359%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 16:30
PlayUp1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV +2.59%E +0.288%K +0.324%G +0.008%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 16:14
LowVig.ag1.33I 75.19%NM 72.84%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.91%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.01%EV +0.311%E +0.035%K +0.040%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.15%EV -1.79%E -0.299%K -0.359%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 16:40
BetOnline.ag1.33I 75.19%NM 72.84%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.91%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.01%EV +0.311%E +0.035%K +0.040%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.15%EV -1.79%E -0.299%K -0.359%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 16:40
Betr (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 73.05%EV -7.54%E -5.89%K -26.93%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.69%EV -0.259%E -0.030%K -0.033%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.26%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 16:20
Marathon Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 72.32%EV -6.82%E -5.29%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.72%EV -0.829%E -0.095%K -0.108%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.96%EV -9.98%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 16:39
Pinnacle1.32I 75.76%NM 72.52%EV -4.65%E -3.52%K -14.54%G +0.000%8.57I 11.67%NM 11.17%EV -2.31%E -0.270%K -0.305%G +0.000%5.87I 17.04%NM 16.31%EV -3.92%E -0.668%K -0.805%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-04 16:35
PointsBet (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 72.82%EV -7.54%E -5.89%K -26.93%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV -3.11%E -0.366%K -0.414%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 16:19
SportsBet1.28I 78.13%NM 72.29%EV -7.54%E -5.89%K -26.93%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -3.11%E -0.366%K -0.414%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -9.98%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 16:39
BetMGM1.33I 75.19%NM 71.81%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.91%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.58%EV -5.96%E -0.722%K -0.822%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.61%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 16:30
BetUS1.29I 77.52%NM 72.43%EV -6.82%E -5.29%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.32%EV -5.96%E -0.722%K -0.822%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 12:35
BetAnything1.29I 77.52%NM 72.43%EV -6.82%E -5.29%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.32%EV -5.96%E -0.722%K -0.822%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 12:34
Unibet (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 71.55%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 16:39
Coral1.33I 75.19%NM 71.55%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 71.55%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 16:30
DraftKings1.31I 76.34%NM 71.86%EV -5.37%E -4.10%K -17.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 16:40
Codere (IT)1.30I 76.92%NM 72.12%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.16%EV -5.07%E -0.874%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 16:19
Bovada1.31I 76.34%NM 71.55%EV -5.37%E -4.10%K -17.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.74%EV -8.34%E -1.49%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 16:35
Fanatics1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -6.82%E -5.29%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 16:30
Everygame1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -9.98%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 16:20
FanDuel1.27I 78.74%NM 72.38%EV -8.26%E -6.51%K -30.61%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.13%EV -6.70%E -1.18%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 16:39
888sport1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 16:30
William Hill1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 16:30
Mr Green (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 16:30
888sport (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 16:30
Paddy Power1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -9.71%E -7.77%K -38.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -8.81%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-04 16:40
Betway1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -14.51%E -1.93%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -9.98%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 16:35
Betclic (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 71.90%EV -10.43%E -8.41%K -43.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.89%EV -14.51%E -1.93%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.21%EV -9.98%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-04 16:18
Sky Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -9.71%E -7.77%K -38.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -14.51%E -1.93%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-04 16:40
NetBet (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 71.00%EV -10.43%E -8.41%K -43.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.74%EV -14.51%E -1.93%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.26%EV -16.53%E -3.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-04 16:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 69.23%EV -9.71%E -7.77%K -38.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.54%EV -14.51%E -1.93%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.23%EV -26.35%E -5.85%K -7.53%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-04 16:09
Unibet (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 70.77%EV -10.43%E -8.41%K -43.46%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 12.36%EV -19.07%E -2.69%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.87%EV -14.89%E -2.86%K -3.54%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-04 16:39
BoyleSports1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -6.10%E -4.69%K -20.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -20.21%E -2.89%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -18.16%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-04 16:39
Winamax (DE)1.28I 78.13%NM 70.51%EV -7.54%E -5.89%K -26.93%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.37%EV -23.06%E -3.42%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.12%EV -8.34%E -1.49%K -1.81%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-04 16:39
Winamax (FR)1.27I 78.74%NM 70.47%EV -8.26%E -6.51%K -30.61%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.26%EV -23.06%E -3.42%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.27%EV -9.98%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-04 16:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.93%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%0.7%2026-04-04 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.93%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%0.7%2026-04-04 16:40
Matchbook1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.93%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%0.7%2026-04-04 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.34I 74.63%NM 74.07%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%0.8%2026-04-04 16:40
Kalshi1.35I 74.07%NM 73.29%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.88%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.83%1.1%2026-04-04 16:40
Smarkets1.34I 74.63%NM 73.47%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.84%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.69%1.6%2026-04-04 16:40