Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.75
assuming max odds 4.60
assuming max odds 4.44
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ajax (Local): 55.14%; Sparta Rotterdam (Visit): 21.98%; Draw: 22.88%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.37. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.44, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.59%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.73%EV -5.71%E -3.34%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 4.53I 22.08%NM 21.42%EV -0.442%E -0.098%K -0.125%G +0.000% | 4.44I 22.52%NM 21.85%EV +1.59%E +0.359%K +0.464%G +0.007% | 3.1% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.25%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.63%EV -1.10%E -0.245%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.12%EV +0.680%E +0.154%K +0.200%G +0.001% | 2.8% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.11%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57%EV -1.10%E -0.245%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%EV -0.464%E -0.107%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.11%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57%EV -1.10%E -0.245%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%EV -0.464%E -0.107%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.26%EV -3.50%E -2.00%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.98%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.76%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-14 19:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.26%EV -3.50%E -2.00%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.98%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.76%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-14 19:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.82%EV -4.40%E -1.01%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.34%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.13%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.68%EV -4.40%E -1.01%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.19%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.99%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -5.50%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.99%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -5.50%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.99%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -5.50%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.54%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.75%EV -3.90%E -0.928%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 19:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.20%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.06%EV -4.84%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -3.90%E -0.928%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 19:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.10%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -1.10%E -0.245%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.71%EV -3.90%E -0.928%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 19:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -3.90%E -0.928%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-14 19:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.00%EV -8.47%E -5.10%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -3.90%E -0.928%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.00%EV -8.47%E -5.10%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -3.90%E -0.928%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.76%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 4.56I 21.93%NM 21.16%EV +0.217%E +0.048%K +0.061%G +0.000% | 4.18I 23.92%NM 23.08%EV -4.35%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.78%EV -5.04%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-14 19:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.78%EV -5.04%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-14 19:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%EV -4.05%E -2.33%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -5.50%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 05:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.19%EV -5.71%E -3.34%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.79%EV -4.84%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-14 19:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -5.71%E -3.34%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -5.50%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-14 19:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.67%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-14 19:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.11%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-14 19:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-14 19:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.53%EV -9.02%E -5.47%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -1.10%E -0.245%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-14 19:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.99%EV -9.57%E -5.83%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.61%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.49%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.18%EV -13.19%E -3.34%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-14 19:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.00%EV -10.12%E -6.21%K -16.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-14 19:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.00%EV -10.12%E -6.21%K -16.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.51%EV -6.81%E -4.03%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.16%EV -7.33%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-14 19:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.51%EV -6.81%E -4.03%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.16%EV -7.33%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-14 19:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.51%EV -6.81%E -4.03%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.16%EV -7.33%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-14 19:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.52%EV -4.84%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.01%EV -7.33%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-14 19:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.02%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.60%EV -4.84%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-14 19:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -9.02%E -5.47%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +1.10%E +0.238%K +0.304%G +0.003% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-14 19:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-14 19:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.06%EV -8.47%E -5.10%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -1.10%E -0.245%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-14 19:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.12%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-14 19:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-14 19:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-14 19:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.39%EV -9.02%E -5.47%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-14 19:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-14 19:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-14 19:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-14 19:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.09%EV -10.67%E -6.59%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.31%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.59%EV -9.62%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-14 19:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.13%EV -10.67%E -6.59%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.38%EV -17.58%E -4.69%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.49%EV -10.76%E -2.76%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-03-14 19:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.16%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.92%EV -11.91%E -3.09%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-14 19:45 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 54.93%EV -11.77%E -7.36%K -19.62%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.25%EV -13.19%E -3.34%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.83%EV -11.91%E -3.09%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-03-14 19:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 55.39%EV -13.43%E -8.55%K -23.56%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.02%EV -13.19%E -3.34%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.59%EV -11.91%E -3.09%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-03-14 19:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.09%EV -9.02%E -5.47%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.99%EV -4.84%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -13.05%E -3.43%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-14 19:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.85%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -13.05%E -3.43%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-14 19:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.01%EV -10.67%E -6.59%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -14.19%E -3.78%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-14 19:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 55.12%EV -16.19%E -10.65%K -31.13%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 20.94%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 23.94%EV -19.91%E -5.69%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 19.4% | 2026-03-14 19:50 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.92% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.92% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.16% | 0.4% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.69% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.07% | 0.8% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.69% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.07% | 0.8% | 2026-03-14 19:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.60% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.58% | 1.0% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.92% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.51% | 2.1% | 2026-03-14 19:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.86% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.56% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.57% | 3.5% | 2026-03-14 19:55 |