L’École des cotes

Ajax v Sparta Rotterdam

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-14 20:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Ajax (Local)

Prévision 55.14%1.81cote équitable
EV -3.50%
Avantage -2.00%
Kelly -4.67%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
53.85%55.19%55.17%56.73%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.521.681.681.7565.79%59.51%59.52%57.14%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Sparta Rotterdam (Visiteur)

Prévision 21.98%4.55cote équitable
EV +1.10%
Avantage +0.238%
Kelly +0.304%
Croissance +0.003%

avec la cote maximale 4.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.25%21.90%22.01%23.38%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.754.274.304.6026.67%23.44%23.26%21.74%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 22.88%4.37cote équitable
EV +1.59%
Avantage +0.359%
Kelly +0.464%
Croissance +0.007%

avec la cote maximale 4.44

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.85%22.92%22.82%23.94%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.504.084.104.4428.57%24.51%24.39%22.52%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
1xBet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.73%EV -5.71%E -3.34%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 21.42%EV -0.442%E -0.098%K -0.125%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.85%EV +1.59%E +0.359%K +0.464%G +0.007%3.1%2026-03-14 19:55
Unibet (NL)1.73I 57.80%NM 56.25%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.63%EV -1.10%E -0.245%K -0.315%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.12%EV +0.680%E +0.154%K +0.200%G +0.001%2.8%2026-03-14 19:55
ATG (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 56.11%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57%EV -1.10%E -0.245%K -0.315%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%EV -0.464%E -0.107%K -0.139%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-14 19:55
Svenska Spel1.73I 57.80%NM 56.11%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57%EV -1.10%E -0.245%K -0.315%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%EV -0.464%E -0.107%K -0.139%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-14 19:55
LowVig.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 55.26%EV -3.50%E -2.00%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.98%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.76%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-14 19:40
BetOnline.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 55.26%EV -3.50%E -2.00%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.98%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.76%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-14 19:40
Unibet (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.82%EV -4.40%E -1.01%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.34%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 19:55
Unibet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.13%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.68%EV -4.40%E -1.01%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.19%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 19:55
LeoVegas1.68I 59.52%NM 55.99%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -5.50%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 19:55
Casumo1.68I 59.52%NM 55.99%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -5.50%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 19:55
betPARX1.68I 59.52%NM 55.99%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -5.50%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 19:55
Coolbet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.54%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.75%EV -3.90%E -0.928%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-14 19:45
Coral1.73I 57.80%NM 55.20%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.06%EV -4.84%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -3.90%E -0.928%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-14 19:40
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 56.10%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -1.10%E -0.245%K -0.315%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.71%EV -3.90%E -0.928%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 19:39
Unibet (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -3.90%E -0.928%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 19:35
Grosvenor1.66I 60.24%NM 56.00%EV -8.47%E -5.10%K -12.83%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -3.90%E -0.928%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 19:55
TABtouch1.66I 60.24%NM 56.00%EV -8.47%E -5.10%K -12.83%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -3.90%E -0.928%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 19:55
Pinnacle1.73I 57.80%NM 55.76%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 21.16%EV +0.217%E +0.048%K +0.061%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 23.08%EV -4.35%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-14 19:55
Betsson1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.78%EV -5.04%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 19:44
NordicBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.78%EV -5.04%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 19:45
Fanatics1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%EV -4.05%E -2.33%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -5.50%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 05:24
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 55.19%EV -5.71%E -3.34%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.79%EV -4.84%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 19:45
DraftKings1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -5.71%E -3.34%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -5.50%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 19:35
Codere (IT)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.67%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 19:35
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.11%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 19:45
BetRivers1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 19:05
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.53%EV -9.02%E -5.47%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -1.10%E -0.245%K -0.315%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 19:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.99%EV -9.57%E -5.83%K -14.95%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.61%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 19:55
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.49%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.18%EV -13.19%E -3.34%K -4.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-14 19:35
Virgin Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 56.00%EV -10.12%E -6.21%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 19:54
LiveScore Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 56.00%EV -10.12%E -6.21%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 19:55
Bovada1.69I 59.17%NM 55.51%EV -6.81%E -4.03%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.16%EV -7.33%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 19:50
BetUS1.69I 59.17%NM 55.51%EV -6.81%E -4.03%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.16%EV -7.33%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 19:50
BetAnything1.69I 59.17%NM 55.51%EV -6.81%E -4.03%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.16%EV -7.33%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 19:50
Marathon Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.52%EV -4.84%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.01%EV -7.33%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 19:45
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.02%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.60%EV -4.84%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-14 19:40
FanDuel1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -9.02%E -5.47%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +1.10%E +0.238%K +0.304%G +0.003%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 19:50
PointsBet (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 19:35
SportsBet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.06%EV -8.47%E -5.10%K -12.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -1.10%E -0.245%K -0.315%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 19:50
Everygame1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.12%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 19:35
Betway1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 19:40
Bet Right1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 19:45
Fliff1.65I 60.61%NM 55.39%EV -9.02%E -5.47%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-14 19:55
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 19:50
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 19:50
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 19:50
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 19:50
Betclic (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 55.09%EV -10.67%E -6.59%K -17.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.31%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.59%EV -9.62%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-14 19:34
Winamax (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 54.13%EV -10.67%E -6.59%K -17.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.38%EV -17.58%E -4.69%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.49%EV -10.76%E -2.76%K -3.71%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-14 19:35
PlayUp1.70I 58.82%NM 54.16%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.92%EV -11.91%E -3.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 19:45
Parions Sport (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 54.93%EV -11.77%E -7.36%K -19.62%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.25%EV -13.19%E -3.34%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.83%EV -11.91%E -3.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-14 19:35
NetBet (FR)1.57I 63.69%NM 55.39%EV -13.43%E -8.55%K -23.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.02%EV -13.19%E -3.34%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.59%EV -11.91%E -3.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-14 19:49
Paddy Power1.65I 60.61%NM 55.09%EV -9.02%E -5.47%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.99%EV -4.84%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -13.05%E -3.43%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-14 19:50
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 53.85%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -13.05%E -3.43%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-14 19:45
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 55.01%EV -10.67%E -6.59%K -17.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -14.19%E -3.78%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-14 19:50
PMU (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 55.12%EV -16.19%E -10.65%K -31.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 20.94%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.94%EV -19.91%E -5.69%K -7.97%G +0.000%19.4%2026-03-14 19:50
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.92%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.16%0.4%2026-03-14 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.69%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.07%0.8%2026-03-14 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.69%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.07%0.8%2026-03-14 19:50
Matchbook1.75I 57.14%NM 56.60%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.58%1.0%2026-03-14 19:55
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 56.92%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.51%2.1%2026-03-14 19:50
Smarkets1.73I 57.80%NM 55.86%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.57%3.5%2026-03-14 19:55