Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ajax v Sparta Rotterdam

Inicio: 2026-03-14 20:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ajax (Local)

Predicción 55.14%1.81momio equitativo
EV -3.50%
Ventaja -2.00%
Kelly -4.67%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.85%55.19%55.17%56.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.521.681.681.7565.79%59.51%59.52%57.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sparta Rotterdam (Visitante)

Predicción 21.98%4.55momio equitativo
EV +1.10%
Ventaja +0.238%
Kelly +0.304%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.25%21.90%22.01%23.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.754.274.304.6026.67%23.44%23.26%21.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 22.88%4.37momio equitativo
EV +1.59%
Ventaja +0.359%
Kelly +0.464%
Crecimiento +0.007%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.44

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.85%22.92%22.82%23.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.504.084.104.4428.57%24.51%24.39%22.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Ajax (Local): 55.14%; Sparta Rotterdam (Visitante): 21.98%; Empate: 22.88%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.37. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.44, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.59%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.73%EV -5.71%E -3.34%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 21.42%EV -0.442%E -0.098%K -0.125%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.85%EV +1.59%E +0.359%K +0.464%G +0.007%3.1%2026-03-14 19:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.25%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.63%EV -1.10%E -0.245%K -0.315%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.12%EV +0.680%E +0.154%K +0.200%G +0.001%2.8%2026-03-14 19:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.11%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57%EV -1.10%E -0.245%K -0.315%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%EV -0.464%E -0.107%K -0.139%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-14 19:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.11%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57%EV -1.10%E -0.245%K -0.315%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%EV -0.464%E -0.107%K -0.139%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-14 19:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.26%EV -3.50%E -2.00%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.98%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.76%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-14 19:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.26%EV -3.50%E -2.00%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.98%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.76%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-14 19:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.82%EV -4.40%E -1.01%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.34%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 19:55
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.13%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.68%EV -4.40%E -1.01%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.19%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 19:55
LeoVegas🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.99%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -5.50%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 19:55
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.99%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -5.50%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 19:55
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.99%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -5.50%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -2.75%E -0.648%K -0.847%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 19:55
Coolbet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.54%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.75%EV -3.90%E -0.928%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-14 19:45
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.20%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.06%EV -4.84%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -3.90%E -0.928%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-14 19:40
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.10%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -1.10%E -0.245%K -0.315%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.71%EV -3.90%E -0.928%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 19:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -3.90%E -0.928%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 19:35
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.00%EV -8.47%E -5.10%K -12.83%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -3.90%E -0.928%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 19:55
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.00%EV -8.47%E -5.10%K -12.83%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -3.90%E -0.928%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 19:55
Pinnacle🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.76%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 21.16%EV +0.217%E +0.048%K +0.061%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 23.08%EV -4.35%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-14 19:55
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.78%EV -5.04%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 19:44
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.78%EV -5.04%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 19:45
Fanatics🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%EV -4.05%E -2.33%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -5.50%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 05:24
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.19%EV -5.71%E -3.34%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.79%EV -4.84%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 19:45
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -5.71%E -3.34%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -5.50%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 19:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.67%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 19:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.11%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 19:45
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 19:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.53%EV -9.02%E -5.47%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -1.10%E -0.245%K -0.315%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 19:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.99%EV -9.57%E -5.83%K -14.95%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.61%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 19:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.49%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.18%EV -13.19%E -3.34%K -4.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-14 19:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.00%EV -10.12%E -6.21%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 19:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.00%EV -10.12%E -6.21%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -6.18%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 19:55
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.51%EV -6.81%E -4.03%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.16%EV -7.33%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 19:50
BetUS🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.51%EV -6.81%E -4.03%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.16%EV -7.33%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 19:50
BetAnything🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.51%EV -6.81%E -4.03%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.16%EV -7.33%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 19:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.52%EV -4.84%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.01%EV -7.33%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 19:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.02%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.60%EV -4.84%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-14 19:40
FanDuel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -9.02%E -5.47%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +1.10%E +0.238%K +0.304%G +0.003%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 19:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -6.60%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 19:35
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.06%EV -8.47%E -5.10%K -12.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -1.10%E -0.245%K -0.315%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 19:50
Everygame🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.12%EV -3.30%E -0.750%K -0.970%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 19:35
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 19:40
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 19:45
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.39%EV -9.02%E -5.47%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-14 19:55
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 19:50
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 19:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 19:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 19:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.09%EV -10.67%E -6.59%K -17.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.31%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.59%EV -9.62%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-14 19:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.13%EV -10.67%E -6.59%K -17.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.38%EV -17.58%E -4.69%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.49%EV -10.76%E -2.76%K -3.71%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-14 19:35
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.16%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.92%EV -11.91%E -3.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 19:45
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.93%EV -11.77%E -7.36%K -19.62%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.25%EV -13.19%E -3.34%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.83%EV -11.91%E -3.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-14 19:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.39%EV -13.43%E -8.55%K -23.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.02%EV -13.19%E -3.34%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.59%EV -11.91%E -3.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-14 19:49
Paddy Power🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.09%EV -9.02%E -5.47%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.99%EV -4.84%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -13.05%E -3.43%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-14 19:50
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.85%EV -7.91%E -4.74%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -13.05%E -3.43%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-14 19:45
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.01%EV -10.67%E -6.59%K -17.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -7.69%E -1.83%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -14.19%E -3.78%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-14 19:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 55.12%EV -16.19%E -10.65%K -31.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 20.94%EV -12.09%E -3.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.94%EV -19.91%E -5.69%K -7.97%G +0.000%19.4%2026-03-14 19:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.92%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.16%0.4%2026-03-14 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.69%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.07%0.8%2026-03-14 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.69%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.07%0.8%2026-03-14 19:50
Matchbook1.75I 57.14%NM 56.60%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.58%1.0%2026-03-14 19:55
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 56.92%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.51%2.1%2026-03-14 19:50
Smarkets1.73I 57.80%NM 55.86%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.57%3.5%2026-03-14 19:55