Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.92
assuming max odds 4.27
assuming max odds 3.95
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ajax (Local): 50.56%; Groningen (Visit): 24.29%; Draw: 25.14%. For Groningen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.12. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.27, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.73%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41%EV -4.43%E -2.35%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.75%EV +3.73%E +0.873%K +1.14%G +0.042% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 25.84%EV -5.46%E -1.45%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.13%EV -4.94%E -2.63%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 23.06%EV +3.24%E +0.762%K +0.997%G +0.032% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.81%EV -0.679%E -0.172%K -0.230%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-05-21 16:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.13%EV -4.94%E -2.63%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 23.06%EV +3.24%E +0.762%K +0.997%G +0.032% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.81%EV -0.679%E -0.172%K -0.230%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-05-21 16:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.53%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.87%EV +3.24%E +0.762%K +0.997%G +0.032% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.60%EV -0.679%E -0.172%K -0.230%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-21 16:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.34%EV -2.92%E -1.52%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.16%EV -2.83%E -0.708%K -0.944%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.50%EV -4.70%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-21 16:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.29%EV -3.93%E -2.07%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -2.83%E -0.708%K -0.944%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.82%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-21 16:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.78%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -2.83%E -0.708%K -0.944%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -8.22%E -2.25%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -2.83%E -0.708%K -0.944%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-21 16:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.50%EV -8.48%E -4.68%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -2.83%E -0.708%K -0.944%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-21 16:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.50%EV -8.48%E -4.68%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -2.83%E -0.708%K -0.944%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-21 16:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.50%EV -8.48%E -4.68%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -2.83%E -0.708%K -0.944%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-21 16:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -2.83%E -0.708%K -0.944%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-21 16:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.14%EV -3.93%E -2.07%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -4.05%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.14%EV -3.93%E -2.07%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -4.05%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.79%EV -4.05%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.79%EV -4.05%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.79%EV -4.05%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.17%EV -8.48%E -4.68%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -4.05%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -8.22%E -2.25%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-21 16:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.97%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 23.68%EV -4.29%E -1.09%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.35%EV -7.47%E -2.03%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.45%E -2.91%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.48%EV -5.26%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.48%EV -1.94%E -0.496%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-21 16:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.42%EV -4.94%E -2.63%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -5.26%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.28%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.55%EV -5.45%E -2.91%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -5.26%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.21%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 16:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.75%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -5.26%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -8.22%E -2.25%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-21 16:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -5.26%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -14.51%E -4.27%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -5.26%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -14.51%E -4.27%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -5.26%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -14.51%E -4.27%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -5.26%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -14.51%E -4.27%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-21 16:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.52%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.30%EV -5.75%E -1.48%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -1.94%E -0.496%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-21 16:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.59%EV -4.94%E -2.63%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -6.48%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -3.19%E -0.829%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.09%EV -4.94%E -2.63%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -6.48%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.96%EV -9.49%E -5.30%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.70%EV -6.48%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-21 16:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.92%EV -10.00%E -5.62%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -6.48%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.53%EV -10.74%E -3.02%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-21 16:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.92%EV -10.00%E -5.62%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -6.48%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.53%EV -10.74%E -3.02%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-21 16:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -3.42%E -1.79%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -7.69%E -2.02%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -4.45%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-21 16:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -5.45%E -2.91%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.80%EV -7.69%E -2.02%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.80%EV -4.45%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-21 16:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.69%E -2.02%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -8.99%E -4.99%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -7.69%E -2.02%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-21 16:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.86%EV -11.01%E -6.25%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -7.69%E -2.02%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-21 16:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.86%EV -11.01%E -6.25%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -7.69%E -2.02%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-21 16:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.86%EV -11.01%E -6.25%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -7.69%E -2.02%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-21 16:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.86%EV -11.01%E -6.25%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -7.69%E -2.02%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-21 16:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.54%EV -3.42%E -1.79%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -8.91%E -2.37%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-21 16:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.55%EV -5.45%E -2.91%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -8.91%E -2.37%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.99%E -4.99%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -8.91%E -2.37%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -14.51%E -4.27%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-21 16:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 50.99%EV -12.02%E -6.91%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.66%EV -8.91%E -2.37%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-21 16:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.12%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -4.45%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.17%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -10.12%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -8.99%E -4.99%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -10.12%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -3.19%E -0.829%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.58%EV -10.50%E -5.93%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -10.12%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.22%EV -10.74%E -3.02%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-21 16:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 50.81%EV -12.52%E -7.24%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.08%EV -11.33%E -3.11%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.11%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -12.55%E -3.49%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.79%EV -6.96%E -3.78%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -12.55%E -3.49%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.78%EV -10.00%E -5.62%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -12.55%E -3.49%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-21 16:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -8.99%E -4.99%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.55%E -3.49%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-21 16:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.14%EV -12.52%E -7.24%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.29%EV -14.98%E -4.28%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.57%EV -19.54%E -6.11%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 17.6% | 2026-05-21 16:30 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 52.05% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.97% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.98% | 0.1% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.15% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 0.8% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.15% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 0.8% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.15% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 0.8% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.28% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71% | 1.0% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.11% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.94% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.96% | 1.4% | 2026-05-21 16:40 |