La escuela de los momios

Ajax v Groningen

Inicio: 2026-05-21 16:45 UTC

Final: Ajax 2–0 Groningen

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Ajax (Local)

Predicción 50.56%1.98momio equitativo
EV -2.92%
Ventaja -1.52%
Kelly -3.17%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.92

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.14%50.57%50.52%52.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.731.831.831.9257.80%54.59%54.64%52.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Groningen (Visitante)

Predicción 24.29%4.12momio equitativo
EV +3.73%
Ventaja +0.873%
Kelly +1.14%
Crecimiento +0.042%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.27

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.75%24.28%24.29%25.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.503.873.884.2728.57%25.85%25.77%23.42%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.14%3.98momio equitativo
EV -0.679%
Ventaja -0.172%
Kelly -0.230%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.93%25.16%25.19%26.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.663.703.9531.25%27.33%27.03%25.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41%EV -4.43%E -2.35%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.75%EV +3.73%E +0.873%K +1.14%G +0.042%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.84%EV -5.46%E -1.45%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-21 16:40
Svenska Spel1.88I 53.19%NM 52.13%EV -4.94%E -2.63%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 23.06%EV +3.24%E +0.762%K +0.997%G +0.032%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.81%EV -0.679%E -0.172%K -0.230%G +0.000%2.0%2026-05-21 16:09
ATG (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.13%EV -4.94%E -2.63%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 23.06%EV +3.24%E +0.762%K +0.997%G +0.032%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.81%EV -0.679%E -0.172%K -0.230%G +0.000%2.0%2026-05-21 16:09
Unibet (NL)1.85I 54.05%NM 52.53%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.87%EV +3.24%E +0.762%K +0.997%G +0.032%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.60%EV -0.679%E -0.172%K -0.230%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-21 16:09
Pinnacle1.92I 52.08%NM 50.34%EV -2.92%E -1.52%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.16%EV -2.83%E -0.708%K -0.944%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.50%EV -4.70%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-21 16:30
BetUS1.90I 52.63%NM 50.29%EV -3.93%E -2.07%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -2.83%E -0.708%K -0.944%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.82%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-21 16:39
Bovada1.85I 54.05%NM 50.78%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -2.83%E -0.708%K -0.944%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -8.22%E -2.25%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-21 16:40
SportsBet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -2.83%E -0.708%K -0.944%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-21 16:30
Unibet (SE)1.81I 55.25%NM 51.50%EV -8.48%E -4.68%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -2.83%E -0.708%K -0.944%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-21 16:09
Casumo1.81I 55.25%NM 51.50%EV -8.48%E -4.68%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -2.83%E -0.708%K -0.944%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-21 16:09
betPARX1.81I 55.25%NM 51.50%EV -8.48%E -4.68%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -2.83%E -0.708%K -0.944%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-21 16:10
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -2.83%E -0.708%K -0.944%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-21 16:30
Betsson1.90I 52.63%NM 50.14%EV -3.93%E -2.07%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -4.05%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-21 16:40
NordicBet1.90I 52.63%NM 50.14%EV -3.93%E -2.07%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -4.05%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-21 16:40
LowVig.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.79%EV -4.05%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-21 16:40
BetOnline.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.79%EV -4.05%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-21 16:40
BetAnything1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.79%EV -4.05%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-21 16:40
Unibet1.81I 55.25%NM 51.17%EV -8.48%E -4.68%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -4.05%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -8.22%E -2.25%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-21 16:20
Marathon Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.97%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.68%EV -4.29%E -1.09%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.35%EV -7.47%E -2.03%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-21 16:40
Bet Victor1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.45%E -2.91%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.48%EV -5.26%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.48%EV -1.94%E -0.496%K -0.668%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-21 16:30
Unibet (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.42%EV -4.94%E -2.63%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -5.26%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.28%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-21 16:40
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 50.55%EV -5.45%E -2.91%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -5.26%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.21%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-21 16:30
Everygame1.83I 54.64%NM 50.75%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -5.26%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -8.22%E -2.25%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-21 16:39
888sport1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -5.26%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -14.51%E -4.27%K -6.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-21 16:40
888sport (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -5.26%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -14.51%E -4.27%K -6.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-21 16:40
Mr Green (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -5.26%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -14.51%E -4.27%K -6.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-21 16:40
William Hill1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -5.26%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -14.51%E -4.27%K -6.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-21 16:39
Betclic (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.52%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.30%EV -5.75%E -1.48%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -1.94%E -0.496%K -0.668%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-21 16:39
Coolbet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.59%EV -4.94%E -2.63%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -6.48%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -3.19%E -0.829%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-21 16:40
Codere (IT)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.09%EV -4.94%E -2.63%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -6.48%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-21 16:40
BetRivers1.79I 55.87%NM 50.96%EV -9.49%E -5.30%K -12.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.70%EV -6.48%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-21 16:09
Grosvenor1.78I 56.18%NM 50.92%EV -10.00%E -5.62%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -6.48%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.53%EV -10.74%E -3.02%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-21 16:09
TABtouch1.78I 56.18%NM 50.92%EV -10.00%E -5.62%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -6.48%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.53%EV -10.74%E -3.02%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-21 16:09
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -3.42%E -1.79%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -7.69%E -2.02%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -4.45%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-21 16:19
BetMGM1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -5.45%E -2.91%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.80%EV -7.69%E -2.02%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.80%EV -4.45%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-21 16:29
Betway1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.69%E -2.02%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-21 16:40
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -8.99%E -4.99%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -7.69%E -2.02%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-21 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 50.86%EV -11.01%E -6.25%K -14.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -7.69%E -2.02%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-21 16:19
LeoVegas1.76I 56.82%NM 50.86%EV -11.01%E -6.25%K -14.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -7.69%E -2.02%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-21 16:19
Virgin Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 50.86%EV -11.01%E -6.25%K -14.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -7.69%E -2.02%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-21 16:20
LiveScore Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 50.86%EV -11.01%E -6.25%K -14.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -7.69%E -2.02%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-21 16:19
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.54%EV -3.42%E -1.79%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -8.91%E -2.37%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-21 16:30
PlayUp1.87I 53.48%NM 49.55%EV -5.45%E -2.91%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -8.91%E -2.37%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-21 16:40
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.99%E -4.99%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -8.91%E -2.37%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -14.51%E -4.27%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-21 16:30
PMU (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 50.99%EV -12.02%E -6.91%K -16.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.66%EV -8.91%E -2.37%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-21 16:09
Betr (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.12%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -4.45%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-21 16:40
PointsBet (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.17%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -10.12%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-21 16:40
Winamax (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -8.99%E -4.99%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -10.12%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -3.19%E -0.829%K -1.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-21 16:40
Unibet (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 50.58%EV -10.50%E -5.93%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -10.12%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.22%EV -10.74%E -3.02%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-21 16:39
NetBet (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 50.81%EV -12.52%E -7.24%K -17.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.08%EV -11.33%E -3.11%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.11%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-21 16:40
betfred_uk1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -12.55%E -3.49%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-21 16:40
Bet Right1.84I 54.35%NM 49.79%EV -6.96%E -3.78%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -12.55%E -3.49%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-21 16:40
Winamax (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 50.78%EV -10.00%E -5.62%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -12.55%E -3.49%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-21 16:39
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -8.99%E -4.99%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.55%E -3.49%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-21 16:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 49.14%EV -12.52%E -7.24%K -17.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.29%EV -14.98%E -4.28%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.57%EV -19.54%E -6.11%K -8.88%G +0.000%17.6%2026-05-21 16:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 52.05%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.97%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.98%0.1%2026-05-21 16:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.15%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-05-21 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.15%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-05-21 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.15%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-05-21 16:40
Matchbook1.93I 51.81%NM 51.28%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71%1.0%2026-05-21 16:40
Smarkets1.93I 51.81%NM 51.11%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.94%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.96%1.4%2026-05-21 16:40