Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ajax v FC Utrecht

Kickoff: 2026-05-24 10:15 UTC

Final: Ajax 1–1 FC Utrecht

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ajax (Local)

Prediction 43.92%2.28fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -0.927%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.00%43.94%43.82%46.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.112.102.2350.76%47.36%47.62%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Utrecht (Visit)

Prediction 30.12%3.32fair odd
EV +4.81%
Edge +1.38%
Kelly +1.94%
Growth +0.093%

assuming max odds 3.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.83%30.11%30.17%31.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.113.103.4835.71%32.16%32.26%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.97%3.85fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -0.700%
Kelly -0.955%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.96%25.95%26.01%28.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.523.553.7533.33%28.42%28.17%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ajax (Local): 43.92%; FC Utrecht (Visit): 30.12%; Draw: 25.97%. For FC Utrecht (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.32. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.13%EV -7.78%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.83%EV +4.81%E +1.38%K +1.94%G +0.093%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.04%EV -3.41%E -0.915%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-24 10:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 44.08%EV -2.07%E -0.927%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.35%EV +0.893%E +0.267%K +0.380%G +0.003%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.57%EV -3.92%E -1.06%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.7%2026-05-24 10:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 44.08%EV -2.07%E -0.927%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.35%EV +0.893%E +0.267%K +0.380%G +0.003%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.57%EV -3.92%E -1.06%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.7%2026-05-24 10:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 44.08%EV -2.07%E -0.927%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.35%EV +0.893%E +0.267%K +0.380%G +0.003%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.57%EV -3.92%E -1.06%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.7%2026-05-24 10:00
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.33%EV -7.78%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -2.12%E -0.652%K -0.942%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -2.63%E -0.700%K -0.955%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-24 10:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.57%EV -4.26%E -1.96%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.75%EV -7.82%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 10:09
BetOnline.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.57%EV -4.26%E -1.96%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.75%EV -7.82%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 10:09
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.57%EV -4.26%E -1.96%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.75%EV -7.82%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 10:09
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.57%EV -4.26%E -1.96%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.75%EV -7.82%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-24 10:10
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -5.58%E -2.60%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.52%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-24 10:10
BetUS🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.25%EV -6.90%E -3.25%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -7.82%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-24 10:10
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.78%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.52%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-24 10:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -6.90%E -3.25%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.42%E -3.02%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-24 10:00
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -6.90%E -3.25%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.42%E -3.02%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-24 10:00
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -6.90%E -3.25%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.42%E -3.02%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-24 09:59
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.55%EV -2.51%E -1.13%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.60%EV -4.83%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.85%EV -2.89%E -0.772%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-24 10:00
Bovada🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.09%EV -6.46%E -3.03%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -5.13%E -1.63%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.52%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-24 10:00
BetAnything🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.09%EV -6.46%E -3.03%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -5.13%E -1.63%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.52%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-24 10:10
Everygame🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -7.78%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -5.13%E -1.63%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.52%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-24 10:10
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54%EV -6.90%E -3.25%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -5.13%E -1.63%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -11.71%E -3.45%K -4.88%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-24 10:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.59%EV -8.21%E -3.93%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.87%EV -6.03%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -5.22%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-24 10:10
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.89%EV -4.70%E -2.17%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.72%EV -6.64%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -2.63%E -0.700%K -0.955%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-24 09:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.58%EV -4.70%E -2.17%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.51%EV -6.64%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.91%EV -5.22%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-24 09:50
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -5.58%E -2.60%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.64%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.52%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-24 09:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -5.58%E -2.60%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.64%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.52%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-24 09:40
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -5.58%E -2.60%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.64%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.52%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-24 09:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -5.58%E -2.60%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.64%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.52%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-24 09:50
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -5.58%E -2.60%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.64%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.12%E -2.61%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-24 10:10
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.68%EV -6.90%E -3.25%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.64%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -9.12%E -2.61%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-24 10:10
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.78%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.64%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.12%E -2.61%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-24 10:09
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.78%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.64%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.71%E -3.45%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-24 10:10
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.78%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.64%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.71%E -3.45%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-24 10:09
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.78%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.64%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.71%E -3.45%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-24 10:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.78%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.64%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.71%E -3.45%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-24 10:10
BetRivers🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.63%EV -8.65%E -4.16%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -6.64%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -13.01%E -3.88%K -5.54%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-24 10:00
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.63%EV -8.65%E -4.16%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -6.64%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -13.01%E -3.88%K -5.54%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-24 10:00
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.63%EV -8.65%E -4.16%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -6.64%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -13.01%E -3.88%K -5.54%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-24 10:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.78%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -8.14%E -2.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -3.92%E -1.06%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-24 09:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.60%EV -9.97%E -4.86%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -8.14%E -2.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -14.31%E -4.34%K -6.22%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-24 10:00
LeoVegas🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.60%EV -9.97%E -4.86%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -8.14%E -2.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -14.31%E -4.34%K -6.22%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-24 10:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.60%EV -9.97%E -4.86%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -8.14%E -2.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -14.31%E -4.34%K -6.22%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-24 10:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.60%EV -9.97%E -4.86%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -8.14%E -2.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -14.31%E -4.34%K -6.22%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-24 10:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.32%EV -9.97%E -4.86%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.09%EV -9.05%E -3.00%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.59%EV -7.82%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-24 09:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -7.78%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -9.65%E -3.22%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -3.92%E -1.06%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-24 09:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -7.78%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -9.65%E -3.22%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -3.92%E -1.06%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-24 09:50
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -7.78%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -9.65%E -3.22%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.52%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-24 09:40
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -7.78%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -9.65%E -3.22%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.52%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-24 09:40
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.97%E -4.86%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -9.65%E -3.22%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -11.71%E -3.45%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-24 10:08
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.97%E -4.86%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -9.65%E -3.22%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -14.31%E -4.34%K -6.22%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-24 09:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.33%EV -10.41%E -5.10%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.47%EV -9.65%E -3.22%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.20%EV -15.61%E -4.80%K -6.94%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-24 10:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.68%EV -9.97%E -4.86%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.36%EV -11.15%E -3.78%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.96%EV -10.42%E -3.02%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-24 09:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.67%EV -13.48%E -6.85%K -13.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.83%EV -11.15%E -3.78%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.51%EV -10.42%E -3.02%K -4.25%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-24 10:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -7.78%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -12.66%E -4.37%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -6.52%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-24 09:50
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -9.97%E -4.86%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.20%EV -13.26%E -4.60%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.96%EV -6.52%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-24 09:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.00%EV -12.17%E -6.08%K -12.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.00%EV -15.67%E -5.60%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.00%EV -22.10%E -7.37%K -11.05%G +0.000%19.0%2026-05-24 10:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.35%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.7%2026-05-24 10:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.35%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.7%2026-05-24 10:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.35%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.7%2026-05-24 10:10
Matchbook2.24I 44.64%NM 44.35%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.7%2026-05-24 10:10
Smarkets2.22I 45.05%NM 44.41%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%1.4%2026-05-24 10:10
Kalshi2.17I 46.08%NM 45.14%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.42%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.44%2.1%2026-05-24 10:10