Language:English
Toluca v Pumas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Toluca (Local)
Prediction 60.08%1.66fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -4.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.09%60.00%60.10%61.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.541.551.6268.97%64.89%64.52%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Pumas (Visit)
Prediction 17.76%5.63fair odd
EV +2.14%
Edge +0.373%
Kelly +0.451%
Growth +0.010%
assuming max odds 5.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.79%17.79%17.74%18.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.145.105.7520.83%19.47%19.61%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.16%4.51fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.312%
Kelly -0.403%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.64%22.21%22.15%23.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.144.204.4526.32%24.14%23.81%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toluca (Local): 60.08%; Pumas (Visit): 17.76%; Draw: 22.16%. For Pumas (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.63. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.14%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.51%EV -5.68%E -3.62%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.79%EV +2.14%E +0.373%K +0.451%G +0.010% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.70%EV -1.39%E -0.312%K -0.403%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-22 01:20 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.51%EV -5.68%E -3.62%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.79%EV +2.14%E +0.373%K +0.451%G +0.010% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.70%EV -1.39%E -0.312%K -0.403%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-22 01:05 |
| 1xBet | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.31%EV -4.48%E -2.82%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.58I 17.92%NM 17.18%EV -0.877%E -0.157%K -0.192%G +0.000% | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.51%EV -5.60%E -1.31%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-22 02:55 |
| Fanatics | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.74%EV -6.28%E -4.03%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -2.30%E -0.418%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -4.71%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-22 02:20 |
| Coolbet | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.04%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -2.30%E -0.418%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.75%EV -3.60%E -0.829%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-22 03:00 |
| BetUS | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.88%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -2.30%E -0.418%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -6.93%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-22 02:30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.26%EV -3.88%E -2.42%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 5.47I 18.28%NM 17.63%EV -2.83%E -0.518%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 4.36I 22.94%NM 22.11%EV -3.38%E -0.776%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-22 02:51 |
| FanDuel | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.69%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.20%EV -4.07%E -0.755%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.11%EV -6.93%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-22 03:00 |
| SportsBet | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.19%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -5.85%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -6.93%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-22 03:00 |
| GTbets | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.87%EV -2.68%E -1.65%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.27I 18.98%NM 18.10%EV -6.38%E -1.21%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.14I 24.15%NM 23.04%EV -8.26%E -1.99%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-22 01:20 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.24%EV -5.68%E -3.62%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV -6.74%E -1.28%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.74%EV -3.60%E -0.829%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-22 02:20 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.24%EV -5.68%E -3.62%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV -6.74%E -1.28%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.74%EV -3.60%E -0.829%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-22 02:20 |
| DraftKings | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -5.68%E -3.62%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -6.74%E -1.28%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -6.93%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-22 03:00 |
| Bet Victor | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -6.74%E -1.28%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -6.93%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-22 02:24 |
| betano_uk | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -6.74%E -1.28%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -6.93%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-22 02:24 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -6.74%E -1.28%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -6.93%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-22 01:59 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.76%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -6.74%E -1.28%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -9.14%E -2.23%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-22 02:59 |
| Casumo | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.14%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -7.63%E -1.47%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -5.82%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-22 02:20 |
| Unibet | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.14%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -7.63%E -1.47%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -5.82%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-22 02:20 |
| Grosvenor | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.14%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -7.63%E -1.47%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -5.82%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-22 02:20 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.14%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -7.63%E -1.47%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -5.82%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-22 02:20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.14%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -7.63%E -1.47%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -5.82%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-22 02:20 |
| betPARX | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.14%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -7.63%E -1.47%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -5.82%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-22 02:20 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.45%EV -8.68%E -5.71%K -16.70%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.67%EV -7.63%E -1.47%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV -6.93%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-22 01:20 |
| BetRivers | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.93%EV -7.48%E -4.86%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.10%EV -9.40%E -1.84%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.97%EV -6.93%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 18:20 |
| TABtouch | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.09%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.03%EV -9.40%E -1.84%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -6.93%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-21 18:20 |
| Fliff | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.66%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.08%EV -10.29%E -2.04%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -9.14%E -2.23%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-22 01:20 |
| Betway | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -5.68%E -3.62%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -6.93%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-22 01:00 |
| PlayUp | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.45%EV -5.08%E -3.21%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -11.36%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-22 03:00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -6.93%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-22 03:00 |
| Bet Right | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.40%EV -7.48%E -4.86%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -9.14%E -2.23%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-22 01:00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.03%EV -8.68%E -5.71%K -16.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.72%EV -6.93%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-22 02:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.19%EV -9.28%E -6.15%K -18.21%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -6.93%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-22 02:20 |
| Everygame | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -11.36%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-07-22 00:39 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.03%EV -9.89%E -6.59%K -19.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.96%EV -9.14%E -2.23%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-21 18:20 |
| Paddy Power | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -9.89%E -6.59%K -19.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -11.36%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-07-22 00:10 |
| betfred_uk | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -9.89%E -6.59%K -19.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -11.36%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-07-22 01:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -9.89%E -6.59%K -19.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -11.36%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-07-22 02:50 |
| Betsson | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.83%EV -5.08%E -3.21%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.78%EV -12.07%E -2.44%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.40%EV -8.04%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-22 03:00 |
| NordicBet | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.83%EV -5.08%E -3.21%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.78%EV -12.07%E -2.44%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.40%EV -8.04%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-22 03:00 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.48%EV -9.89%E -6.59%K -19.77%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.21%EV -12.96%E -2.64%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.31%EV -11.36%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-07-22 02:39 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.47I 68.03%NM 59.97%EV -11.69%E -7.95%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.99%EV -12.96%E -2.64%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -11.36%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-07-21 18:20 |
| Neds | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.78%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.74%EV -14.73%E -3.07%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -11.36%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-22 02:30 |
| William Hill | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.09%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -14.73%E -3.07%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -15.79%E -4.16%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-07-22 00:35 |
| 888sport | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.09%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -14.73%E -3.07%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -15.79%E -4.16%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-07-22 00:35 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.09%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -14.73%E -3.07%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -15.79%E -4.16%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-07-22 00:35 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.09%EV -8.08%E -5.28%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -14.73%E -3.07%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -15.79%E -4.16%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-07-22 00:35 |
| Sky Bet | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.92%EV -9.89%E -6.59%K -19.77%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -14.73%E -3.07%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -13.58%E -3.48%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-07-22 01:01 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.45I 68.97%NM 59.74%EV -12.89%E -8.89%K -28.64%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.05%EV -14.73%E -3.07%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.21%EV -13.58%E -3.48%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-07-22 03:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.00% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.04% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96% | 1.2% | 2026-07-22 02:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.00% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.04% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96% | 1.2% | 2026-07-22 02:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.00% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.04% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96% | 1.2% | 2026-07-22 02:50 |
| Matchbook | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.87% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.71% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.41% | 1.4% | 2026-07-22 03:00 |
| Kalshi | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.82% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.61% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57% | 2.1% | 2026-07-22 02:55 |
| Smarkets | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.81% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.07% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.11% | 2.8% | 2026-07-22 03:00 |