The School of Odds
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Toluca v Monterrey

2026-11-08 01:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toluca (Local)

Prediction 55.65%1.80fair odd
EV -4.84%
Edge -2.83%
Kelly -6.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.54%55.79%55.67%60.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.611.621.7169.44%62.19%61.73%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Monterrey (Visit)

Prediction 22.20%4.50fair odd
EV +16.54%
Edge +3.15%
Kelly +3.89%
Growth +0.644%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.44%21.92%22.19%22.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.434.305.2525.64%22.55%23.26%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.15%4.51fair odd
EV +1.90%
Edge +0.413%
Kelly +0.528%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.05%22.29%22.14%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.144.154.6026.32%24.15%24.10%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Toluca (Local): 55.65%; Monterrey (Visit): 22.20%; Draw: 22.15%. For Monterrey (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.50. 13 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.25, producing a positive expected value of +16.54%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.51%EV -10.96%E -6.85%K -18.27%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.44%EV +16.54%E +3.15%K +3.89%G +0.644%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.05%EV +1.90%E +0.413%K +0.528%G +0.010%3.3%2026-11-01 01:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.51%EV -10.96%E -6.85%K -18.27%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.44%EV +16.54%E +3.15%K +3.89%G +0.644%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.05%EV +1.90%E +0.413%K +0.528%G +0.010%3.3%2026-11-01 01:50
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.49%EV -13.74%E -8.87%K -24.99%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV +8.77%E +1.79%K +2.25%G +0.197%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -5.85%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 01:50
Grosvenor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.49%EV -13.74%E -8.87%K -24.99%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV +8.77%E +1.79%K +2.25%G +0.197%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -5.85%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 01:50
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.49%EV -13.74%E -8.87%K -24.99%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV +8.77%E +1.79%K +2.25%G +0.197%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -5.85%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 01:50
Casumo🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.49%EV -13.74%E -8.87%K -24.99%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV +8.77%E +1.79%K +2.25%G +0.197%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -5.85%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 01:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.49%EV -13.74%E -8.87%K -24.99%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV +8.77%E +1.79%K +2.25%G +0.197%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -5.85%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 01:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.49%EV -13.74%E -8.87%K -24.99%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV +8.77%E +1.79%K +2.25%G +0.197%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -5.85%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 01:50
betPARX🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.49%EV -13.74%E -8.87%K -24.99%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV +8.77%E +1.79%K +2.25%G +0.197%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -5.85%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 01:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.03%EV -15.41%E -10.14%K -29.64%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.09%EV +4.33%E +0.922%K +1.17%G +0.051%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -9.17%E -2.24%K -2.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-01 01:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.03%EV -15.41%E -10.14%K -29.64%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.09%EV +4.33%E +0.922%K +1.17%G +0.051%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -9.17%E -2.24%K -2.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-01 01:20
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.19%EV -15.97%E -10.58%K -31.31%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.02%EV +4.33%E +0.922%K +1.17%G +0.051%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -9.17%E -2.24%K -2.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 01:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.10%EV -16.53%E -11.02%K -33.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.27%EV +2.11%E +0.459%K +0.587%G +0.012%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV -9.17%E -2.24%K -2.96%G +0.000%12.8%2026-11-01 01:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 59.36%EV -19.86%E -13.80%K -45.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.00%EV -0.108%E -0.024%K -0.031%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.64%EV -12.50%E -3.16%K -4.24%G +0.000%17.0%2026-11-01 01:50
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.95%E -3.52%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -4.55%E -1.06%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -4.74%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-01 04:15
Coolbet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.51%E -3.87%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -4.55%E -1.06%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -4.74%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-01 04:20
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.67%EV -4.84%E -2.83%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.40%EV -5.66%E -1.33%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 21.93%EV -3.86%E -0.889%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-01 04:30
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.25%EV -6.51%E -3.87%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.84%EV -5.66%E -1.33%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.92%EV -10.28%E -2.54%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-01 03:20
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.25%EV -6.51%E -3.87%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.84%EV -5.66%E -1.33%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.92%EV -10.28%E -2.54%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-01 03:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -8.18%E -4.96%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -6.77%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -6.96%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-01 03:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.26%EV -7.07%E -4.23%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.51%EV -8.99%E -2.19%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.24%EV -8.07%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-01 03:55
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -7.07%E -4.23%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -8.99%E -2.19%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -9.17%E -2.24%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-01 03:55
betano_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -7.07%E -4.23%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -8.99%E -2.19%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -9.17%E -2.24%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-01 03:54
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.93%EV -5.95%E -3.52%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 22.70%EV -9.21%E -2.25%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.37%EV -8.07%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-01 04:00
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.54%EV -8.74%E -5.33%K -13.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -11.21%E -2.80%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.69%EV -6.96%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-01 04:15
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -9.85%E -6.08%K -15.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -11.21%E -2.80%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -11.39%E -2.85%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.7%2026-11-01 04:21
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.49%EV -12.07%E -7.64%K -20.82%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 22.31%EV -12.76%E -3.25%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.20%EV -12.50%E -3.16%K -4.24%G +0.000%14.1%2026-11-01 03:20
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.54%EV -7.07%E -4.23%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -13.43%E -3.44%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -15.82%E -4.16%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-01 04:15
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.54%EV -7.07%E -4.23%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -13.43%E -3.44%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -15.82%E -4.16%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-01 04:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.54%EV -7.07%E -4.23%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -13.43%E -3.44%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -15.82%E -4.16%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-01 04:21
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.54%EV -7.07%E -4.23%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -13.43%E -3.44%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -15.82%E -4.16%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-01 04:21
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 54.37%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.82%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.82%5.1%2026-11-01 05:55
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 54.60%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.70%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.70%15.9%2026-11-01 03:20
Arbitrage (12 combinations) +0.74%Pinnacle 1.71 (58.9%) / ATG (SE) 5.25 (19.2%) / ATG (SE) 4.60 (21.9%)Show all 12 combinations
Toluca (Local)Monterrey (Visit)DrawMargin
Pinnacle🎯 1.71 (58.9%)ATG (SE)🎯 5.25 (19.2%)ATG (SE)🎯 4.60 (21.9%)+0.739%
Pinnacle🎯 1.71 (58.9%)ATG (SE)🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Svenska Spel🎯 4.60 (21.9%)+0.739%
Pinnacle🎯 1.71 (58.9%)Svenska Spel🎯 5.25 (19.2%)ATG (SE)🎯 4.60 (21.9%)+0.739%
Pinnacle🎯 1.71 (58.9%)Svenska Spel🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Svenska Spel🎯 4.60 (21.9%)+0.739%
Fanatics🎯 1.69 (59.2%)ATG (SE)🎯 5.25 (19.1%)ATG (SE)🎯 4.60 (21.7%)+0.042%
Fanatics🎯 1.69 (59.2%)ATG (SE)🎯 5.25 (19.1%)Svenska Spel🎯 4.60 (21.7%)+0.042%
Fanatics🎯 1.69 (59.2%)Svenska Spel🎯 5.25 (19.1%)ATG (SE)🎯 4.60 (21.7%)+0.042%
Fanatics🎯 1.69 (59.2%)Svenska Spel🎯 5.25 (19.1%)Svenska Spel🎯 4.60 (21.7%)+0.042%
1xBet🎯 1.69 (59.2%)ATG (SE)🎯 5.25 (19.1%)ATG (SE)🎯 4.60 (21.7%)+0.042%
1xBet🎯 1.69 (59.2%)ATG (SE)🎯 5.25 (19.1%)Svenska Spel🎯 4.60 (21.7%)+0.042%
1xBet🎯 1.69 (59.2%)Svenska Spel🎯 5.25 (19.1%)ATG (SE)🎯 4.60 (21.7%)+0.042%
1xBet🎯 1.69 (59.2%)Svenska Spel🎯 5.25 (19.1%)Svenska Spel🎯 4.60 (21.7%)+0.042%