Language:English
Toluca v Atlas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Toluca (Local)
Prediction 68.85%1.45fair odd
EV -0.170%
Edge -0.117%
Kelly -0.378%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.54%68.66%69.10%70.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.361.361.4577.52%73.66%73.53%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Atlas (Visit)
Prediction 12.00%8.33fair odd
EV +2.01%
Edge +0.237%
Kelly +0.268%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 8.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.00%12.20%11.89%13.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.317.008.5016.00%13.67%14.29%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.15%5.22fair odd
EV +0.540%
Edge +0.103%
Kelly +0.127%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 5.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.65%19.15%19.02%20.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.684.605.2523.81%21.37%21.74%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toluca (Local): 68.85%; Atlas (Visit): 12.00%; Draw: 19.15%. For Atlas (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.33. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.01%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -8.43%E -6.34%K -25.55%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV +2.01%E +0.237%K +0.268%G +0.005% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -4.25%E -0.849%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 22:53 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.66%EV -4.99%E -3.62%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 8.45I 11.83%NM 11.38%EV +1.41%E +0.167%K +0.189%G +0.003% | 5.07I 19.72%NM 18.96%EV -2.91%E -0.573%K -0.714%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-12 22:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.88%EV -3.61%E -2.58%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 8.18I 12.22%NM 11.79%EV -1.83%E -0.224%K -0.255%G +0.000% | 4.99I 20.04%NM 19.33%EV -4.44%E -0.890%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-12 22:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.88%EV -3.61%E -2.58%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 8.18I 12.22%NM 11.79%EV -1.83%E -0.224%K -0.255%G +0.000% | 4.99I 20.04%NM 19.33%EV -4.44%E -0.890%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-12 22:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.88%EV -3.61%E -2.58%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 8.18I 12.22%NM 11.79%EV -1.83%E -0.224%K -0.255%G +0.000% | 4.99I 20.04%NM 19.33%EV -4.44%E -0.890%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-12 22:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.59%EV -2.92%E -2.07%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -3.99%E -0.499%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.50%EV -10.95%E -2.35%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-12 22:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.19%EV -5.68%E -4.14%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.85%EV -3.99%E -0.499%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.25%E -0.849%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -6.37%E -4.68%K -17.68%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -3.99%E -0.499%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -4.25%E -0.849%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 22:36 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.50%EV -7.05%E -5.23%K -20.16%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -3.99%E -0.499%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -4.25%E -0.849%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-12 22:56 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -8.43%E -6.34%K -25.55%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -3.99%E -0.499%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV +0.540%E +0.103%K +0.127%G +0.001% | 6.7% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.08%EV -8.43%E -6.34%K -25.55%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -3.99%E -0.499%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -2.33%E -0.457%K -0.569%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.48%EV -9.12%E -6.91%K -28.50%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.63%EV -3.99%E -0.499%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.89%EV -0.417%E -0.080%K -0.099%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-12 22:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.46%EV -6.37%E -4.68%K -17.68%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.94%EV -6.39%E -0.819%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -9.04%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.62%EV -7.05%E -5.23%K -20.16%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.88%EV -6.39%E -0.819%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -9.04%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.88%EV -6.37%E -4.68%K -17.68%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.83%EV -6.39%E -0.819%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.29%EV -12.87%E -2.83%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.88%EV -6.37%E -4.68%K -17.68%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.83%EV -6.39%E -0.819%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.29%EV -12.87%E -2.83%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-12 22:56 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.59%EV -10.50%E -8.07%K -34.99%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.76%EV -6.39%E -0.819%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.65%EV -0.417%E -0.080%K -0.099%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.97%EV -6.37%E -4.68%K -17.68%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.93%EV -6.99%E -0.902%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -11.91%E -2.59%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.84%EV -0.170%E -0.117%K -0.378%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.75%EV -8.79%E -1.16%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.40%EV -9.04%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.05%E -5.23%K -20.16%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -9.99%E -1.33%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -4.25%E -0.849%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.87%EV -7.05%E -5.23%K -20.16%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -9.99%E -1.33%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -11.91%E -2.59%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-12 22:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.11%EV -10.50%E -8.07%K -34.99%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -9.99%E -1.33%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -9.04%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.11%EV -10.50%E -8.07%K -34.99%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -9.99%E -1.33%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -9.04%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.32%EV -2.92%E -2.07%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -15.99%E -2.28%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -11.91%E -2.59%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.32%EV -2.92%E -2.07%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -15.99%E -2.28%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -11.91%E -2.59%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -7.05%E -5.23%K -20.16%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -15.99%E -2.28%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -6.16%E -1.26%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -8.43%E -6.34%K -25.55%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -15.99%E -2.28%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-12 22:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.01%EV -8.43%E -6.34%K -25.55%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -15.99%E -2.28%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -15.74%E -3.58%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-12 22:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.01%EV -8.43%E -6.34%K -25.55%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -15.99%E -2.28%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -15.74%E -3.58%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-12 22:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.01%EV -8.43%E -6.34%K -25.55%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -15.99%E -2.28%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -15.74%E -3.58%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-12 22:36 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.01%EV -8.43%E -6.34%K -25.55%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -15.99%E -2.28%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -15.74%E -3.58%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-12 22:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.10%EV -10.50%E -8.07%K -34.99%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -15.99%E -2.28%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -11.91%E -2.59%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 67.98%EV -11.19%E -8.67%K -38.57%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.53%EV -15.99%E -2.28%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.49%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -3.61%E -2.58%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -18.99%E -2.81%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -3.61%E -2.58%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -18.99%E -2.81%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -3.61%E -2.58%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -18.99%E -2.81%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -3.61%E -2.58%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -18.99%E -2.81%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-12 22:53 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -3.61%E -2.58%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -18.99%E -2.81%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -3.61%E -2.58%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -18.99%E -2.81%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -3.61%E -2.58%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -18.99%E -2.81%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 67.81%EV -11.19%E -8.67%K -38.57%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 12.96%EV -18.99%E -2.81%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 19.23%EV -12.87%E -2.83%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-09-12 22:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -6.37%E -4.68%K -17.68%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -21.99%E -3.38%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-12 22:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 65.54%EV -5.68%E -4.14%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -21.99%E -3.38%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.64%EV -16.70%E -3.84%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 65.54%EV -5.68%E -4.14%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -21.99%E -3.38%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.64%EV -16.70%E -3.84%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -8.43%E -6.34%K -25.55%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -21.99%E -3.38%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -9.04%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-12 22:56 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.71%EV -6.37%E -4.68%K -17.68%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.75%EV -21.99%E -3.38%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.54%EV -16.70%E -3.84%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 65.72%EV -7.05%E -5.23%K -20.16%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.65%EV -21.99%E -3.38%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.63%EV -17.65%E -4.11%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 65.90%EV -10.50%E -8.07%K -34.99%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 13.71%EV -24.99%E -4.00%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.40%EV -19.57%E -4.66%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.92% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 11.03% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.05% | 0.7% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.68% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.99% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.32% | 1.1% | 2026-09-12 22:56 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.44% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.96% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.61% | 1.4% | 2026-09-12 22:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.83% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.94% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.23% | 1.6% | 2026-09-12 22:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.83% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.94% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.23% | 1.6% | 2026-09-12 22:56 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.88% | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.66% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.47% | 3.0% | 2026-09-12 22:56 |