Idioma:Español
Toluca v Atlas
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Toluca (Local)
Predicción 68.85%1.45momio equitativo
EV -0.170%
Ventaja -0.117%
Kelly -0.378%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.45
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.54%68.66%69.10%70.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.291.361.361.4577.52%73.66%73.53%68.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Atlas (Visitante)
Predicción 12.00%8.33momio equitativo
EV +2.01%
Ventaja +0.237%
Kelly +0.268%
Crecimiento +0.005%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.50
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.00%12.20%11.89%13.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.257.317.008.5016.00%13.67%14.29%11.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 19.15%5.22momio equitativo
EV +0.540%
Ventaja +0.103%
Kelly +0.127%
Crecimiento +0.001%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.65%19.15%19.02%20.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.684.605.2523.81%21.37%21.74%19.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Toluca (Local): 68.85%; Atlas (Visitante): 12.00%; Empate: 19.15%. Para Atlas (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 8.33. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 8.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.01%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -8.43%E -6.34%K -25.55%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV +2.01%E +0.237%K +0.268%G +0.005% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -4.25%E -0.849%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 22:53 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.66%EV -4.99%E -3.62%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 8.45I 11.83%NM 11.38%EV +1.41%E +0.167%K +0.189%G +0.003% | 5.07I 19.72%NM 18.96%EV -2.91%E -0.573%K -0.714%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-12 22:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.88%EV -3.61%E -2.58%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 8.18I 12.22%NM 11.79%EV -1.83%E -0.224%K -0.255%G +0.000% | 4.99I 20.04%NM 19.33%EV -4.44%E -0.890%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-12 22:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.88%EV -3.61%E -2.58%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 8.18I 12.22%NM 11.79%EV -1.83%E -0.224%K -0.255%G +0.000% | 4.99I 20.04%NM 19.33%EV -4.44%E -0.890%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-12 22:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.88%EV -3.61%E -2.58%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 8.18I 12.22%NM 11.79%EV -1.83%E -0.224%K -0.255%G +0.000% | 4.99I 20.04%NM 19.33%EV -4.44%E -0.890%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-12 22:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.59%EV -2.92%E -2.07%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -3.99%E -0.499%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.50%EV -10.95%E -2.35%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-12 22:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.19%EV -5.68%E -4.14%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.85%EV -3.99%E -0.499%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.25%E -0.849%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -6.37%E -4.68%K -17.68%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -3.99%E -0.499%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -4.25%E -0.849%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 22:36 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.50%EV -7.05%E -5.23%K -20.16%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -3.99%E -0.499%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -4.25%E -0.849%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-12 22:56 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -8.43%E -6.34%K -25.55%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -3.99%E -0.499%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV +0.540%E +0.103%K +0.127%G +0.001% | 6.7% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.08%EV -8.43%E -6.34%K -25.55%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -3.99%E -0.499%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -2.33%E -0.457%K -0.569%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.48%EV -9.12%E -6.91%K -28.50%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.63%EV -3.99%E -0.499%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.89%EV -0.417%E -0.080%K -0.099%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-12 22:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.46%EV -6.37%E -4.68%K -17.68%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.94%EV -6.39%E -0.819%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -9.04%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.62%EV -7.05%E -5.23%K -20.16%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.88%EV -6.39%E -0.819%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -9.04%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.88%EV -6.37%E -4.68%K -17.68%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.83%EV -6.39%E -0.819%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.29%EV -12.87%E -2.83%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.88%EV -6.37%E -4.68%K -17.68%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.83%EV -6.39%E -0.819%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.29%EV -12.87%E -2.83%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-12 22:56 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.59%EV -10.50%E -8.07%K -34.99%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.76%EV -6.39%E -0.819%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.65%EV -0.417%E -0.080%K -0.099%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.97%EV -6.37%E -4.68%K -17.68%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.93%EV -6.99%E -0.902%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -11.91%E -2.59%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.84%EV -0.170%E -0.117%K -0.378%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.75%EV -8.79%E -1.16%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.40%EV -9.04%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.05%E -5.23%K -20.16%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -9.99%E -1.33%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -4.25%E -0.849%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.87%EV -7.05%E -5.23%K -20.16%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -9.99%E -1.33%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -11.91%E -2.59%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-12 22:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.11%EV -10.50%E -8.07%K -34.99%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -9.99%E -1.33%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -9.04%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.11%EV -10.50%E -8.07%K -34.99%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -9.99%E -1.33%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -9.04%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.32%EV -2.92%E -2.07%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -15.99%E -2.28%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -11.91%E -2.59%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.32%EV -2.92%E -2.07%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -15.99%E -2.28%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -11.91%E -2.59%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -7.05%E -5.23%K -20.16%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -15.99%E -2.28%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -6.16%E -1.26%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -8.43%E -6.34%K -25.55%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -15.99%E -2.28%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-12 22:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.01%EV -8.43%E -6.34%K -25.55%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -15.99%E -2.28%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -15.74%E -3.58%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-12 22:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.01%EV -8.43%E -6.34%K -25.55%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -15.99%E -2.28%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -15.74%E -3.58%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-12 22:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.01%EV -8.43%E -6.34%K -25.55%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -15.99%E -2.28%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -15.74%E -3.58%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-12 22:36 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.01%EV -8.43%E -6.34%K -25.55%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -15.99%E -2.28%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -15.74%E -3.58%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-12 22:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.10%EV -10.50%E -8.07%K -34.99%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -15.99%E -2.28%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -11.91%E -2.59%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 67.98%EV -11.19%E -8.67%K -38.57%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.53%EV -15.99%E -2.28%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.49%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -3.61%E -2.58%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -18.99%E -2.81%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -3.61%E -2.58%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -18.99%E -2.81%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -3.61%E -2.58%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -18.99%E -2.81%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -3.61%E -2.58%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -18.99%E -2.81%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-12 22:53 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -3.61%E -2.58%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -18.99%E -2.81%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -3.61%E -2.58%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -18.99%E -2.81%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -3.61%E -2.58%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -18.99%E -2.81%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 67.81%EV -11.19%E -8.67%K -38.57%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 12.96%EV -18.99%E -2.81%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 19.23%EV -12.87%E -2.83%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-09-12 22:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -6.37%E -4.68%K -17.68%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -21.99%E -3.38%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -13.82%E -3.07%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-12 22:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 65.54%EV -5.68%E -4.14%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -21.99%E -3.38%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.64%EV -16.70%E -3.84%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 65.54%EV -5.68%E -4.14%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -21.99%E -3.38%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.64%EV -16.70%E -3.84%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -8.43%E -6.34%K -25.55%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -21.99%E -3.38%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -9.04%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-12 22:56 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.71%EV -6.37%E -4.68%K -17.68%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.75%EV -21.99%E -3.38%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.54%EV -16.70%E -3.84%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 65.72%EV -7.05%E -5.23%K -20.16%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.65%EV -21.99%E -3.38%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.63%EV -17.65%E -4.11%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 65.90%EV -10.50%E -8.07%K -34.99%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 13.71%EV -24.99%E -4.00%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.40%EV -19.57%E -4.66%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.92% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 11.03% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.05% | 0.7% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.68% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.99% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.32% | 1.1% | 2026-09-12 22:56 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.44% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.96% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.61% | 1.4% | 2026-09-12 22:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.83% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.94% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.23% | 1.6% | 2026-09-12 22:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.83% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.94% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.23% | 1.6% | 2026-09-12 22:56 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.88% | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.66% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.47% | 3.0% | 2026-09-12 22:56 |