Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tijuana v Cruz Azul

2026-08-17 03:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tijuana (Local)

Prediction 28.80%3.47fair odd
EV -3.23%
Edge -0.961%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.18%28.88%28.80%30.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.173.173.3633.33%31.50%31.50%29.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cruz Azul (Visit)

Prediction 43.45%2.30fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -2.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.26%43.48%43.42%45.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.092.102.2352.36%47.83%47.62%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.75%3.60fair odd
EV -0.089%
Edge -0.025%
Kelly -0.034%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.40%27.63%27.78%28.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.343.393.6032.26%29.90%29.50%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Tijuana (Local): 28.80%; Cruz Azul (Visit): 43.45%; Draw: 27.75%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.603. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.600, with an expected value of -0.089%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯3.36I 29.76%NM 28.37%EV -3.23%E -0.961%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.52%EV -4.85%E -2.22%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.11%EV -5.92%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-14 22:15
LowVig.ag🎯3.36I 29.76%NM 28.37%EV -3.23%E -0.961%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.52%EV -4.85%E -2.22%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.11%EV -5.92%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-14 22:14
Pinnacle🎯3.36I 29.76%NM 28.34%EV -3.23%E -0.961%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.48%EV -4.85%E -2.22%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.17%EV -6.19%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-14 11:49
BetUS🎯3.33I 30.03%NM 28.37%EV -4.09%E -1.23%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.34%EV -5.29%E -2.43%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.29%EV -7.30%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 15:24
Fanatics🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.59%E -3.07%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 08:24
ATG (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.27%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.07%EV -10.07%E -4.86%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -2.86%E -0.818%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 14:24
Svenska Spel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.27%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.07%EV -10.07%E -4.86%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -2.86%E -0.818%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 14:25
1xBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.31%EV -6.59%E -3.07%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.04%EV -7.86%E -2.37%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 16:15
Betway🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -6.59%E -3.07%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 09:14
Casumo🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.89%EV -11.37%E -5.57%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-14 14:24
BetRivers🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.89%EV -11.37%E -5.57%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-14 14:24
Unibet (NL)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.89%EV -11.37%E -5.57%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-14 14:24
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.89%EV -11.37%E -5.57%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-14 14:25
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.89%EV -11.37%E -5.57%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-14 14:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.89%EV -11.37%E -5.57%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-14 14:24
betPARX🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.89%EV -11.37%E -5.57%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-14 14:23
Marathon Bet🎯3.24I 30.86%NM 28.60%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.50%EV -7.46%E -3.50%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.91%EV -7.86%E -2.37%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 16:08
Coolbet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.84%EV -5.72%E -2.64%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.43%EV -0.089%E -0.025%K -0.034%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 23:44
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -2.86%E -0.818%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-07 07:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -2.86%E -0.818%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-14 03:04
DraftKings🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -6.59%E -3.07%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.74%EV -7.03%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 09:14
NordicBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -7.90%E -3.72%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 12:09
Betsson🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -7.90%E -3.72%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 12:10
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -6.59%E -3.07%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 15:49
SportsBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -9.28%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.88%EV -7.90%E -3.72%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -2.86%E -0.818%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-07 07:20
Fliff🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.64%EV -9.28%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.01%EV -10.94%E -5.34%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-15 15:30
TABtouch🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.33%EV -9.28%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.62%EV -13.11%E -6.55%K -13.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-14 14:24
GTbets🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 30.02%EV -9.56%E -3.05%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.26%EV -3.12%E -1.40%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-11 00:09
betano_uk🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 29.61%EV -10.14%E -3.25%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.99%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -2.86%E -0.818%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-14 16:13
Bet Victor🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 29.61%EV -10.14%E -3.25%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.99%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -2.86%E -0.818%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 14:18
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.59%E -3.07%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-10 03:05
PlayUp🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -7.90%E -3.72%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 12:09
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.59%E -3.07%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-14 11:39
Bet Right🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 23:44
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -10.94%E -5.34%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-12 03:13
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.97%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-14 11:40
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.97%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-14 11:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.97%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-14 11:39
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.97%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-14 11:39
Virgin Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.61%EV -14.41%E -7.32%K -14.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.04%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-14 14:25
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.61%EV -14.41%E -7.32%K -14.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.04%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-14 14:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.28%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.74%EV -14.85%E -7.57%K -15.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-14 14:24
Betclic (FR)🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 28.98%EV -11.29%E -3.67%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.50%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.52%EV -13.13%E -4.20%K -6.17%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-14 11:39
NetBet (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.62%EV -12.16%E -3.99%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.22%EV -12.24%E -6.06%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.16%EV -13.97%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-15 09:14
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -13.60%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-14 07:23
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -13.60%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -10.94%E -5.34%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-14 03:00
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -13.60%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -10.94%E -5.34%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-14 11:39
PMU (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.38%EV -13.60%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.58%EV -17.02%E -8.91%K -18.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.03%EV -12.58%E -3.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%17.4%2026-08-14 14:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi3.45I 28.99%NM 28.41%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.14%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%2.0%2026-08-15 08:44
Matchbook3.30I 30.30%NM 29.26%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.35%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%3.6%2026-08-15 15:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 29.13%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.17%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.70%4.0%2026-08-15 15:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.30I 30.30%NM 29.13%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.17%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.70%4.0%2026-08-15 15:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 29.13%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.17%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.70%4.0%2026-08-15 15:49
Smarkets3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.85%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%6.7%2026-08-15 15:55

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