Tijuana v Cruz Azul

2026-08-17 03:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

31%

42%

27%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Tijuana (Local)

Prediction 30.59%3.27fair odd

EV -5.18%

Edge -1.67%

Kelly -2.47%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.74%30.59%30.62%31.23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.802.993.003.1035.71%33.42%33.33%32.26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Cruz Azul (Visit)

Prediction 42.28%2.37fair odd

EV -4.44%

Edge -1.97%

Kelly -3.53%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.56%42.28%42.26%43.13%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.002.162.192.2650.00%46.22%45.66%44.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.13%3.69fair odd

EV -5.04%

Edge -1.44%

Kelly -2.01%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.61%27.13%27.12%27.77%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

3.183.373.403.5031.45%29.67%29.41%28.57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Coolbet	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -5.18%E -1.67%K -2.47%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -4.87%E -2.16%K -3.89%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-26 11:35
1xBet	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.46%EV -5.18%E -1.67%K -2.47%G +0.000%	2.26I 44.25%NM 41.78%EV -4.44%E -1.97%K -3.53%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-26 11:35
Marathon Bet	3.08I 32.47%NM 30.07%EV -5.79%E -1.88%K -2.79%G +0.000%	2.19I 45.66%NM 42.29%EV -7.40%E -3.38%K -6.22%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -9.11%E -2.72%K -3.87%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-26 13:05
SportsBet	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -6.71%E -2.20%K -3.27%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.98%E -3.17%K -5.82%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-07-26 11:35
FanDuel	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.24%E -2.75%K -4.12%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -6.98%E -3.17%K -5.82%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-07-26 11:35
LeoVegas	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -8.24%E -2.75%K -4.12%G +0.000%	2.12I 47.17%NM 42.57%EV -10.36%E -4.89%K -9.25%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -10.46%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-07-26 11:34
Paddy Power	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -11.30%E -3.90%K -5.95%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -9.10%E -4.23%K -7.91%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-07-26 11:34
Betclic (FR)	2.90I 34.48%NM 29.74%EV -11.30%E -3.90%K -5.95%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 43.13%EV -15.44%E -7.72%K -15.44%G +0.000%	3.18I 31.45%NM 27.13%EV -13.72%E -4.31%K -6.29%G +0.000%	15.9%	2026-07-26 11:35
Sky Bet	2.80I 35.71%NM 31.17%EV -14.36%E -5.13%K -7.98%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 41.56%EV -11.21%E -5.34%K -10.19%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -13.18%E -4.12%K -5.99%G +0.000%	14.6%	2026-07-26 11:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.