Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tigres v Necaxa

2026-09-06 01:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tigres (Local)

Prediction 55.78%1.79fair odd
EV -6.30%
Edge -3.75%
Kelly -9.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.19%55.78%55.78%55.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.631.651.6864.52%61.19%60.61%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Necaxa (Visit)

Prediction 20.01%5.00fair odd
EV -5.97%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -1.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.99%20.01%20.01%20.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.524.604.7023.81%22.13%21.74%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.22%4.13fair odd
EV -5.55%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.09%24.22%24.22%24.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.753.803.9028.57%26.64%26.32%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Tigres (Local): 55.78%; Necaxa (Visit): 20.01%; Draw: 24.22%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.13. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.90, with an expected value of -5.55%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.92%EV -6.30%E -3.75%K -9.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -5.97%E -1.27%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -5.55%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-27 01:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.92%EV -6.30%E -3.75%K -9.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -5.97%E -1.27%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -5.55%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-27 01:39
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -7.97%E -4.83%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -7.97%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -7.97%E -2.10%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-27 01:39
Casumo🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -7.97%E -4.83%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -7.97%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -7.97%E -2.10%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-27 01:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -7.97%E -4.83%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -7.97%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -7.97%E -2.10%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-27 01:40
Grosvenor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -7.97%E -4.83%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -7.97%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -7.97%E -2.10%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-27 01:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -7.97%E -4.83%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -7.97%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -7.97%E -2.10%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-27 01:39
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -7.97%E -4.83%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -7.97%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -7.97%E -2.10%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-27 01:40
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -7.97%E -4.83%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -7.97%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -7.97%E -2.10%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-27 01:38
TABtouch🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.37%EV -9.64%E -5.95%K -15.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.39%EV -11.97%E -2.72%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -10.39%E -2.81%K -3.85%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-27 01:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.37%EV -10.76%E -6.72%K -17.93%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.36%EV -12.97%E -2.98%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.27%EV -11.60%E -3.18%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-27 01:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.37%EV -10.76%E -6.72%K -17.93%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.36%EV -12.97%E -2.98%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.27%EV -11.60%E -3.18%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-27 01:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.37%EV -10.76%E -6.72%K -17.93%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.36%EV -12.97%E -2.98%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.27%EV -11.60%E -3.18%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-27 01:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 55.19%EV -13.55%E -8.74%K -24.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.37%EV -15.97%E -3.80%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.44%EV -15.24%E -4.35%K -6.09%G +0.000%16.9%2026-08-27 01:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.23I 81.30%NM 50.39%2.63I 38.02%NM 23.57%2.38I 42.02%NM 26.04%61.3%2026-08-27 07:05