Pachuca v Puebla

2026-08-18 03:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

68%

12%

20%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Pachuca (Local)

Prediction 67.64%1.48fair odd

EV -5.31%

Edge -3.79%

Kelly -13.28%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

65.18%67.64%68.29%69.44%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.291.351.351.4077.52%74.26%73.80%71.43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Puebla (Visit)

Prediction 11.90%8.40fair odd

EV -1.80%

Edge -0.218%

Kelly -0.248%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

11.46%11.90%11.59%13.91%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

6.257.397.288.2516.00%13.54%13.75%12.12%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 20.46%4.89fair odd

EV -1.79%

Edge -0.372%

Kelly -0.470%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

19.10%20.46%20.13%22.16%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

4.004.354.354.8025.00%23.01%22.99%20.83%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Coolbet	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.29%EV -5.31%E -3.79%K -13.28%G +0.000%	8.25I 12.12%NM 11.59%EV -1.80%E -0.218%K -0.248%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV -2.81%E -0.591%K -0.749%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-07-26 12:09
1xBet	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.39%EV -5.31%E -3.79%K -13.28%G +0.000%	8.10I 12.35%NM 11.65%EV -3.59%E -0.443%K -0.505%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -7.92%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-26 11:30
888sport	1.36I 73.53%NM 65.18%EV -8.02%E -5.89%K -22.27%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -16.68%E -2.38%K -2.78%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -18.16%E -4.54%K -6.05%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-07-26 11:35
William Hill	1.36I 73.53%NM 65.18%EV -8.02%E -5.89%K -22.27%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -16.68%E -2.38%K -2.78%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -18.16%E -4.54%K -6.05%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-07-26 11:40
888sport (SE)	1.36I 73.53%NM 65.18%EV -8.02%E -5.89%K -22.27%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -16.68%E -2.38%K -2.78%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -18.16%E -4.54%K -6.05%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-07-26 11:35
Mr Green (SE)	1.36I 73.53%NM 65.18%EV -8.02%E -5.89%K -22.27%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -16.68%E -2.38%K -2.78%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -18.16%E -4.54%K -6.05%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-07-26 11:35
SportsBet	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -8.69%E -6.44%K -24.83%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -4.78%E -0.597%K -0.682%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -1.79%E -0.372%K -0.470%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-07-26 12:10
LeoVegas	1.33I 75.19%NM 67.67%EV -10.04%E -7.55%K -30.44%G +0.000%	7.30I 13.70%NM 12.33%EV -13.11%E -1.80%K -2.08%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -7.92%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000%	11.1%	2026-07-26 12:10
Sky Bet	1.33I 75.19%NM 65.38%EV -10.04%E -7.55%K -30.44%G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00%NM 13.91%EV -25.61%E -4.10%K -4.88%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 20.70%EV -14.06%E -3.35%K -4.39%G +0.000%	15.0%	2026-07-26 12:10
FanDuel	1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -10.72%E -8.12%K -33.50%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -4.78%E -0.597%K -0.682%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -1.79%E -0.372%K -0.470%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-07-26 12:09
Paddy Power	1.30I 76.92%NM 68.39%EV -12.07%E -9.29%K -40.25%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -10.73%E -1.43%K -1.65%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 19.76%EV -7.92%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000%	12.5%	2026-07-26 12:10
Betclic (FR)	1.29I 77.52%NM 67.00%EV -12.75%E -9.88%K -43.97%G +0.000%	7.25I 13.79%NM 11.92%EV -13.70%E -1.89%K -2.19%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 21.08%EV -16.11%E -3.93%K -5.20%G +0.000%	15.7%	2026-07-26 11:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.