The School of Odds

Guadalajara v FC Juárez

2026-07-25 23:07 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Guadalajara (Local)

Prediction 56.58%1.77fair odd
EV -4.95%
Edge -2.95%
Kelly -7.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.69%56.59%56.59%57.69%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.561.631.631.6864%61%61%60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

FC Juárez (Visit)

Prediction 20.48%4.88fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -0.576%
Kelly -0.729%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.99%20.49%20.40%21.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.004.464.474.7525%22%22%21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 22.95%4.36fair odd
EV -3.62%
Edge -0.862%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.12%22.92%23.02%23.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.603.994.034.2028%25%25%24%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.39%EV -4.95%E -2.95%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.85%E -1.75%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -3.62%E -0.862%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 21:19
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -4.95%E -2.95%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.94%EV -8.88%E -1.99%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -9.36%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-13 01:29
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -4.95%E -2.95%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.94%EV -8.88%E -1.99%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -9.36%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-13 01:29
Fanatics1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.52%E -3.30%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.99%EV -2.73%E -0.576%K -0.729%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-12 21:45
1xBet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.52%EV -6.65%E -4.03%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 20.45%EV -6.62%E -1.45%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.03%EV -7.06%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-12 22:34
SportsBet1.63I 61.35%NM 57.08%EV -7.78%E -4.77%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 21:19
Marathon Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 56.92%EV -7.78%E -4.77%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.91%EV -7.06%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 22:29
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 57.69%EV -8.91%E -5.54%K -14.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -3.62%E -0.862%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-12 21:24
Paddy Power1.60I 62.50%NM 56.70%EV -9.48%E -5.92%K -15.80%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.62%EV -9.90%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-12 21:35
LeoVegas1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -9.48%E -5.92%K -15.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.94%EV -11.95%E -2.78%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.79%EV -9.36%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-12 21:19
Sky Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 54.69%EV -11.18%E -7.12%K -19.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.46%EV -18.09%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.85%EV -17.39%E -4.83%K -6.69%G +0.000%16.5%2026-07-12 21:24
Betclic (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 56.19%EV -11.74%E -7.53%K -20.97%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.62%EV -12.97%E -3.05%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.19%EV -13.26%E -3.51%K -4.77%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-12 21:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-12 21:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-12 21:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-12 21:34