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Guadalajara v FC Juárez
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Guadalajara (Local)
Prediction 68.10%1.47fair odd
EV +0.791%
Edge +0.534%
Kelly +1.65%
Growth +0.013%
assuming max odds 1.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.66%67.74%68.07%69.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.371.371.4878.13%72.90%73.26%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
FC Juárez (Visit)
Prediction 13.07%7.65fair odd
EV +1.98%
Edge +0.254%
Kelly +0.292%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 7.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.20%13.22%13.23%16.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.706.946.907.8017.54%14.40%14.49%12.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 18.82%5.31fair odd
EV +2.21%
Edge +0.407%
Kelly +0.499%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 5.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.74%19.03%18.70%21.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.794.755.4322.73%20.89%21.05%18.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Guadalajara (Local): 68.10%; FC Juárez (Visit): 13.07%; Draw: 18.82%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.31. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.43, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.21%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.66%EV +0.791%E +0.534%K +1.65%G +0.013% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.27%EV -25.47%E -4.47%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -17.18%E -3.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-20 13:55 |
| NordicBet | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.26%EV -1.93%E -1.34%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.62%EV -9.78%E -1.42%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.12%EV -16.24%E -3.65%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-25 23:05 |
| Betsson | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.26%EV -1.93%E -1.34%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.62%EV -9.78%E -1.42%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.12%EV -16.24%E -3.65%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-25 23:04 |
| 1xBet | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.69%EV -3.30%E -2.32%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.40%EV +1.33%E +0.172%K +0.197%G +0.003% | 4.83I 20.70%NM 19.90%EV -9.08%E -1.88%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-25 22:59 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.72%EV -3.30%E -2.32%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV -8.48%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.74%EV -9.65%E -2.01%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-25 22:49 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.72%EV -3.30%E -2.32%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV -8.48%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.74%EV -9.65%E -2.01%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-25 22:49 |
| PlayUp | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.23%EV -3.30%E -2.32%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.72%EV -11.74%E -1.74%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -17.18%E -3.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-25 23:04 |
| Unibet | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.57%EV -4.66%E -3.33%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -11.74%E -1.74%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -10.59%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-25 22:50 |
| Casumo | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.57%EV -4.66%E -3.33%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -11.74%E -1.74%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -10.59%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-25 22:50 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.57%EV -4.66%E -3.33%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -11.74%E -1.74%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -10.59%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-25 22:50 |
| Grosvenor | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.57%EV -4.66%E -3.33%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -11.74%E -1.74%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -10.59%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-25 22:49 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.57%EV -4.66%E -3.33%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -11.74%E -1.74%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -10.59%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-25 22:50 |
| betPARX | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.57%EV -4.66%E -3.33%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -11.74%E -1.74%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -10.59%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-25 22:49 |
| Pinnacle | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.26%EV -5.34%E -3.84%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.50%EV +0.677%E +0.088%K +0.101%G +0.001% | 5.28I 18.94%NM 18.23%EV -0.613%E -0.116%K -0.143%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-25 23:05 |
| GTbets | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.35%EV -5.34%E -3.84%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 7.45I 13.42%NM 12.57%EV -2.59%E -0.348%K -0.402%G +0.000% | 4.66I 21.46%NM 20.09%EV -12.28%E -2.64%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-25 20:45 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.80%EV -6.02%E -4.36%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 7.73I 12.94%NM 12.46%EV +1.07%E +0.138%K +0.159%G +0.002% | 5.43I 18.42%NM 17.74%EV +2.21%E +0.407%K +0.499%G +0.011% | 3.8% | 2026-07-25 20:45 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.80%EV -6.02%E -4.36%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 7.73I 12.94%NM 12.46%EV +1.07%E +0.138%K +0.159%G +0.002% | 5.43I 18.42%NM 17.74%EV +2.21%E +0.407%K +0.499%G +0.011% | 3.8% | 2026-07-25 20:45 |
| Coolbet | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.96%EV -6.02%E -4.36%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.20%EV +1.98%E +0.254%K +0.292%G +0.006% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.84%EV -4.94%E -0.979%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-25 21:55 |
| DraftKings | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.88%EV -6.02%E -4.36%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -8.48%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -5.88%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-25 22:59 |
| BetRivers | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.02%E -4.36%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -11.74%E -1.74%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -11.53%E -2.45%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-25 22:49 |
| TABtouch | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.02%E -4.36%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -11.74%E -1.74%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -11.53%E -2.45%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-25 22:49 |
| BetUS | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.72%EV -6.70%E -4.89%K -18.11%G +0.000% | 7.45I 13.42%NM 12.64%EV -2.59%E -0.348%K -0.402%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.64%EV -4.94%E -0.979%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-25 23:04 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.04%EV -6.70%E -4.89%K -18.11%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -8.48%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -5.88%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-25 22:55 |
| Bet Right | 1.37I 72.99%NM 66.96%EV -6.70%E -4.89%K -18.11%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -8.48%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -13.41%E -2.92%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-25 22:14 |
| Bet Victor | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.38%E -5.43%K -20.50%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -1.94%E -0.258%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.88%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-25 20:40 |
| betano_uk | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.38%E -5.43%K -20.50%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -1.94%E -0.258%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.88%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-25 20:40 |
| Fanatics | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -7.38%E -5.43%K -20.50%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -8.48%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -5.88%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-25 20:45 |
| Betway | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -7.38%E -5.43%K -20.50%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -8.48%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -5.88%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-25 23:05 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.79%EV -7.38%E -5.43%K -20.50%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -11.74%E -1.74%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -13.41%E -2.92%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-25 22:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.79%EV -7.38%E -5.43%K -20.50%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -11.74%E -1.74%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -13.41%E -2.92%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-25 22:49 |
| betfred_uk | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -7.38%E -5.43%K -20.50%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -15.01%E -2.31%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -15.29%E -3.40%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-25 22:14 |
| 888sport | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -7.38%E -5.43%K -20.50%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -15.01%E -2.31%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -15.29%E -3.40%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-25 22:30 |
| William Hill | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -7.38%E -5.43%K -20.50%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -15.01%E -2.31%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -15.29%E -3.40%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-25 22:29 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -7.38%E -5.43%K -20.50%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -15.01%E -2.31%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -15.29%E -3.40%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-25 22:30 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -7.38%E -5.43%K -20.50%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -15.01%E -2.31%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -15.29%E -3.40%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-25 22:29 |
| Neds | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -7.38%E -5.43%K -20.50%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -15.01%E -2.31%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -15.29%E -3.40%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-25 22:14 |
| SportsBet | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.46%EV -8.06%E -5.97%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -1.94%E -0.258%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV -2.12%E -0.407%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-25 23:05 |
| LeoVegas | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.97%EV -8.06%E -5.97%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.30%EV -9.78%E -1.42%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.73%EV -7.77%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-25 23:04 |
| Everygame | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.70%EV -8.06%E -5.97%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -8.48%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -10.59%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-25 22:34 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -8.06%E -5.97%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -15.01%E -2.31%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -13.41%E -2.92%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-25 22:50 |
| FanDuel | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.78%EV -9.42%E -7.09%K -28.56%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -1.94%E -0.258%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -2.12%E -0.407%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-25 22:35 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.02%EV -9.42%E -7.09%K -28.56%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -1.94%E -0.258%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -7.77%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-25 22:58 |
| Sky Bet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -9.42%E -7.09%K -28.56%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -15.01%E -2.31%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -10.59%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-07-25 23:05 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 67.39%EV -10.11%E -7.66%K -31.58%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.48%EV -13.71%E -2.08%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.13%EV -12.47%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-25 22:51 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 66.83%EV -10.11%E -7.66%K -31.58%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.57%EV -15.01%E -2.31%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.60%EV -15.29%E -3.40%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-07-25 22:50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -11.47%E -8.82%K -38.23%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -8.48%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -5.88%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-25 23:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -11.47%E -8.82%K -38.23%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -8.48%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -5.88%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-25 23:04 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 67.79%EV -12.83%E -10.02%K -45.82%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.35%EV -15.01%E -2.31%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 18.86%EV -13.41%E -2.92%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-07-25 23:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.97% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.74% | 0.6% | 2026-07-25 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.78% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.70% | 0.9% | 2026-07-25 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.78% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.70% | 0.9% | 2026-07-25 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.78% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.70% | 0.9% | 2026-07-25 23:00 |
| Smarkets | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.16% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.98% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.86% | 1.8% | 2026-07-25 23:00 |
| Kalshi | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.56% | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.75% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.68% | 2.0% | 2026-07-25 22:35 |