Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cruz Azul v Tijuana

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 23:00 UTC

Final: Cruz Azul 1–1 Tijuana

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cruz Azul (Local)

Prediction 73.51%1.36fair odd
EV -4.44%
Edge -3.42%
Kelly -14.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.09%73.37%73.54%75.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.251.251.3086.21%79.72%80.00%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tijuana (Visit)

Prediction 10.47%9.56fair odd
EV +9.88%
Edge +0.941%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.103%

assuming max odds 10.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.06%10.43%10.35%12.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.258.839.0010.5013.79%11.33%11.11%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.03%6.24fair odd
EV +1.77%
Edge +0.280%
Kelly +0.332%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 6.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.21%16.20%16.11%19.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.545.506.3522.22%18.06%18.18%15.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cruz Azul (Local): 73.51%; Tijuana (Visit): 10.47%; Draw: 16.03%. For Tijuana (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.56. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.88%.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.16%EV -4.44%E -3.42%K -14.80%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.06%EV +9.88%E +0.941%K +1.04%G +0.103%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.78%EV -14.25%E -2.66%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 20:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 75.07%EV -5.18%E -4.01%K -17.85%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.68%EV +4.65%E +0.465%K +0.517%G +0.024%6.35I 15.75%NM 15.25%EV +1.77%E +0.280%K +0.332%G +0.006%3.3%2026-04-18 22:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 75.07%EV -5.18%E -4.01%K -17.85%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.68%EV +4.65%E +0.465%K +0.517%G +0.024%6.35I 15.75%NM 15.25%EV +1.77%E +0.280%K +0.332%G +0.006%3.3%2026-04-18 22:55
Bet Victor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.12%E -6.49%K -32.46%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV +4.65%E +0.465%K +0.517%G +0.024%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -3.83%E -0.639%K -0.767%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-18 17:29
Betsson🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.27%EV -6.65%E -5.23%K -24.61%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.50%EV +2.56%E +0.261%K +0.291%G +0.007%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.23%EV -13.45%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-18 22:35
NordicBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.27%EV -6.65%E -5.23%K -24.61%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.50%EV +2.56%E +0.261%K +0.291%G +0.007%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.23%EV -13.45%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-18 22:35
1xBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.75%EV -4.44%E -3.42%K -14.80%G +0.000%9.70I 10.31%NM 9.88%EV +1.51%E +0.156%K +0.174%G +0.003%5.86I 17.06%NM 16.36%EV -6.08%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-18 22:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.05%EV -4.44%E -3.42%K -14.80%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.00%EV -0.581%E -0.061%K -0.068%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.96%EV -10.25%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-18 22:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.05%EV -4.44%E -3.42%K -14.80%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.00%EV -0.581%E -0.061%K -0.068%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.96%EV -10.25%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-18 22:20
PlayUp🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.54%EV -5.91%E -4.62%K -21.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -0.581%E -0.061%K -0.068%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -15.86%E -3.02%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 22:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.13%EV -8.12%E -6.49%K -32.46%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV -0.581%E -0.061%K -0.068%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -7.84%E -1.36%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-18 22:20
SportsBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -10.32%E -8.46%K -46.91%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -0.581%E -0.061%K -0.068%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -3.83%E -0.639%K -0.767%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-18 22:55
GTbets🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.68%EV -5.91%E -4.62%K -21.11%G +0.000%9.46I 10.57%NM 9.97%EV -1.00%E -0.106%K -0.118%G +0.000%5.77I 17.33%NM 16.35%EV -7.52%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-18 22:20
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.13%EV -5.18%E -4.01%K -17.85%G +0.000%9.26I 10.80%NM 10.33%EV -3.09%E -0.334%K -0.374%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.55%EV -1.43%E -0.233%K -0.278%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-18 22:55
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.13%EV -6.65%E -5.23%K -24.61%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.18%EV -3.20%E -0.346%K -0.388%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -3.83%E -0.639%K -0.767%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-18 22:20
Unibet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.89%EV -6.65%E -5.23%K -24.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -5.81%E -0.646%K -0.727%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.83%EV -11.85%E -2.15%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-18 22:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.89%EV -6.65%E -5.23%K -24.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -5.81%E -0.646%K -0.727%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.83%EV -11.85%E -2.15%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-18 22:25
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.89%EV -6.65%E -5.23%K -24.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -5.81%E -0.646%K -0.727%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.83%EV -11.85%E -2.15%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-18 22:25
Casumo🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.89%EV -6.65%E -5.23%K -24.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -5.81%E -0.646%K -0.727%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.83%EV -11.85%E -2.15%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-18 22:25
BetRivers🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.89%EV -6.65%E -5.23%K -24.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -5.81%E -0.646%K -0.727%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.83%EV -11.85%E -2.15%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-18 22:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.89%EV -6.65%E -5.23%K -24.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -5.81%E -0.646%K -0.727%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.83%EV -11.85%E -2.15%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-18 22:25
betPARX🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.89%EV -6.65%E -5.23%K -24.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -5.81%E -0.646%K -0.727%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.83%EV -11.85%E -2.15%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-18 22:25
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -8.85%E -7.14%K -36.88%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV -5.81%E -0.646%K -0.727%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -3.83%E -0.639%K -0.767%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 22:54
TABtouch🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.04%EV -7.38%E -5.86%K -28.39%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -5.81%E -0.646%K -0.727%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -11.85%E -2.15%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 22:20
Bet Right🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.04%EV -7.38%E -5.86%K -28.39%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -5.81%E -0.646%K -0.727%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -11.85%E -2.15%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 21:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.97%EV -8.12%E -6.49%K -32.46%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -5.81%E -0.646%K -0.727%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -13.45%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-18 22:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.97%EV -8.12%E -6.49%K -32.46%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -5.81%E -0.646%K -0.727%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -13.45%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-18 22:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.06%EV -9.59%E -7.79%K -41.68%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -5.81%E -0.646%K -0.727%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.96%EV -15.05%E -2.84%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-18 22:25
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 73.99%EV -11.79%E -9.83%K -58.96%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.87%EV -5.81%E -0.646%K -0.727%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -11.85%E -2.15%K -2.63%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-18 22:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 71.09%EV -10.32%E -8.46%K -46.91%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.64%EV -5.81%E -0.646%K -0.727%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.27%EV -27.88%E -6.19%K -7.96%G +0.000%15.3%2026-04-18 22:55
DraftKings🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.17%EV -5.18%E -4.01%K -17.85%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -11.05%E -1.30%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.83%E -0.639%K -0.767%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-18 21:01
Fanatics🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.98%EV -6.65%E -5.23%K -24.61%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -11.05%E -1.30%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -7.84%E -1.36%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-18 21:00
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.78%EV -8.12%E -6.49%K -32.46%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -11.05%E -1.30%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -3.83%E -0.639%K -0.767%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 22:55
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.58%EV -8.12%E -6.49%K -32.46%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -11.05%E -1.30%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -19.86%E -3.97%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-18 17:15
LeoVegas🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 72.72%EV -11.06%E -9.14%K -52.65%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.35%EV -11.05%E -1.30%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.92%EV -16.66%E -3.20%K -3.97%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-18 22:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 72.72%EV -11.06%E -9.14%K -52.65%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.35%EV -11.05%E -1.30%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.92%EV -16.66%E -3.20%K -3.97%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-18 22:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 74.22%EV -14.73%E -12.70%K -92.07%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.13%EV -11.05%E -1.30%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.65%EV -11.85%E -2.15%K -2.63%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-18 22:50
Bovada🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.43%EV -6.65%E -5.23%K -24.61%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.15%EV -13.66%E -1.66%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.43%EV -10.25%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 22:25
BetUS🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.43%EV -6.65%E -5.23%K -24.61%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.15%EV -13.66%E -1.66%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.43%EV -10.25%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 22:24
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.28%EV -8.12%E -6.49%K -32.46%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.29%EV -16.28%E -2.03%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -11.85%E -2.15%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-18 22:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.28%EV -8.12%E -6.49%K -32.46%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.29%EV -16.28%E -2.03%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -11.85%E -2.15%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-18 22:20
Everygame🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.28%EV -8.12%E -6.49%K -32.46%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.29%EV -16.28%E -2.03%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -11.85%E -2.15%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-18 22:24
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -8.12%E -6.49%K -32.46%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -16.28%E -2.03%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -19.86%E -3.97%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-18 19:45
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -8.12%E -6.49%K -32.46%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -16.28%E -2.03%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -19.86%E -3.97%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-18 19:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -8.12%E -6.49%K -32.46%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -16.28%E -2.03%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -19.86%E -3.97%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-18 19:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -8.12%E -6.49%K -32.46%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -16.28%E -2.03%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -19.86%E -3.97%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-18 19:45
Sky Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.76%EV -10.32%E -8.46%K -46.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -16.28%E -2.03%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -11.85%E -2.15%K -2.63%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-18 22:55
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.76%EV -10.32%E -8.46%K -46.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -16.28%E -2.03%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -11.85%E -2.15%K -2.63%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-18 22:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 72.71%EV -11.06%E -9.14%K -52.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.00%EV -16.28%E -2.03%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.29%EV -13.45%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-18 22:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.01%EV -8.12%E -6.49%K -32.46%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.78%EV -18.90%E -2.44%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.21%EV -3.83%E -0.639%K -0.767%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-18 22:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 71.95%EV -10.32%E -8.46%K -46.91%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.33%EV -18.90%E -2.44%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.72%EV -15.86%E -3.02%K -3.73%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-18 22:41
Winamax (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 71.94%EV -10.32%E -8.46%K -46.91%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.11%EV -24.13%E -3.33%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -11.85%E -2.15%K -2.63%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-18 22:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.30I 76.92%NM 76.34%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.63%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.04%0.8%2026-04-18 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.30I 76.92%NM 76.34%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.63%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.04%0.8%2026-04-18 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.30I 76.92%NM 76.34%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.63%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.04%0.8%2026-04-18 22:55
Matchbook1.30I 76.92%NM 76.34%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.63%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.04%0.8%2026-04-18 22:55
Smarkets1.29I 77.52%NM 75.82%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.89%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.28%2.2%2026-04-18 22:50
Kalshi1.30I 76.92%NM 74.74%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.72%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.55%2.9%2026-04-18 22:31