The School of Odds

Cruz Azul v Puebla

2026-07-22 01:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Cruz Azul (Local)

Prediction 69.05%1.45fair odd
EV -4.71%
Edge -3.41%
Kelly -12.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.79%68.99%69.19%70.23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.301.341.331.3877%75%75%72%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Puebla (Visit)

Prediction 11.76%8.50fair odd
EV -4.74%
Edge -0.585%
Kelly -0.667%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.42%11.86%11.77%14.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
6.257.617.908.1016%13%13%12%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 19.19%5.21fair odd
EV -2.14%
Edge -0.420%
Kelly -0.523%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.18%19.15%19.04%20.21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.334.784.805.1023%21%21%20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet1.38I 72.46%NM 69.04%EV -4.71%E -3.41%K -12.39%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -4.06%E -0.813%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-12 21:19
NordicBet1.37I 72.99%NM 68.26%EV -5.40%E -3.94%K -14.59%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.84%EV -7.09%E -0.897%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.90%EV -9.82%E -2.09%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-12 21:44
Betsson1.37I 72.99%NM 68.26%EV -5.40%E -3.94%K -14.59%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.84%EV -7.09%E -0.897%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.90%EV -9.82%E -2.09%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-12 21:49
Fanatics1.35I 74.07%NM 69.50%EV -6.78%E -5.02%K -19.37%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -4.06%E -0.813%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-12 21:49
SportsBet1.35I 74.07%NM 69.24%EV -6.78%E -5.02%K -19.37%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.06%EV -8.85%E -1.14%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -4.06%E -0.813%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-12 21:19
1xBet1.34I 74.63%NM 69.36%EV -7.47%E -5.58%K -21.97%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.47%EV -4.74%E -0.585%K -0.667%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.16%EV -6.94%E -1.43%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-12 21:59
Marathon Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 69.52%EV -8.16%E -6.14%K -24.73%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.42%EV -4.74%E -0.585%K -0.667%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.06%EV -6.94%E -1.43%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-12 21:54
LeoVegas1.33I 75.19%NM 67.76%EV -8.16%E -6.14%K -24.73%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.06%EV -18.85%E -2.73%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.18%EV -9.82%E -2.09%K -2.65%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-12 21:44
Sky Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 65.79%EV -8.16%E -6.14%K -24.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.00%EV -26.49%E -4.24%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.21%EV -16.92%E -3.91%K -5.08%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-12 21:19
FanDuel1.32I 75.76%NM 70.23%EV -8.85%E -6.71%K -27.66%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.18%EV -2.14%E -0.420%K -0.523%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-12 21:18
Paddy Power1.30I 76.92%NM 69.11%EV -10.23%E -7.87%K -34.11%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -8.86%E -1.87%K -2.36%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-12 21:19
Betclic (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 67.39%EV -10.23%E -7.87%K -34.11%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 12.70%EV -18.85%E -2.73%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.91%EV -15.58%E -3.54%K -4.58%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-12 21:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.33I 75.19%NM 65.28%5.88I 17.01%NM 14.76%4.35I 22.99%NM 19.96%15.2%2026-07-13 01:15
Smarkets1.29I 77.52%NM 66.28%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.36%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.36%17.0%2026-07-13 01:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-12 21:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-12 21:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-12 21:34