L’École des cotes

Cruz Azul v Puebla

Coup d’envoi : 2026-07-22 01:00 UTC

Score final : Cruz Azul 2–1 Puebla

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

48 opérateurs (16 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Cruz Azul (Local)

Prévision 70.44%1.42cote équitable
EV -4.91%
Avantage -3.63%
Kelly -14.02%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.35

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
68.57%70.40%70.59%72.02%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.241.321.321.3580.65%76.05%75.76%74.07%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Puebla (Visiteur)

Prévision 11.87%8.42cote équitable
EV +1.01%
Avantage +0.119%
Kelly +0.135%
Croissance +0.001%

avec la cote maximale 8.51

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
11.00%11.93%11.84%12.98%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
6.907.787.968.5114.49%12.85%12.55%11.75%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 17.69%5.65cote équitable
EV +2.60%
Avantage +0.449%
Kelly +0.542%
Croissance +0.014%

avec la cote maximale 5.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
16.28%17.67%17.58%19.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.705.135.005.8021.28%19.48%20.00%17.24%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (48 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
BetOnline.ag1.34I 74.63%NM 72.01%EV -5.61%E -4.19%K -16.50%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.35%EV +0.893%E +0.105%K +0.119%G +0.001%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.64%EV +2.60%E +0.449%K +0.542%G +0.014%3.6%2026-07-21 23:05
LowVig.ag1.34I 74.63%NM 72.01%EV -5.61%E -4.19%K -16.50%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.35%EV +0.893%E +0.105%K +0.119%G +0.001%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.64%EV +2.60%E +0.449%K +0.542%G +0.014%3.6%2026-07-21 23:05
Betway1.30I 76.92%NM 72.02%EV -8.43%E -6.48%K -28.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -5.04%E -0.630%K -0.720%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.28%EV +1.72%E +0.299%K +0.362%G +0.006%6.8%2026-07-22 00:35
Pinnacle1.34I 74.63%NM 71.81%EV -5.61%E -4.19%K -16.50%G +0.000%8.51I 11.75%NM 11.31%EV +1.01%E +0.119%K +0.135%G +0.001%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.88%EV +0.834%E +0.146%K +0.177%G +0.001%3.9%2026-07-22 00:35
FanDuel1.30I 76.92%NM 71.70%EV -8.43%E -6.48%K -28.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -5.04%E -0.630%K -0.720%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.65%EV -0.935%E -0.167%K -0.203%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:39
Coolbet1.34I 74.63%NM 70.79%EV -5.61%E -4.19%K -16.50%G +0.000%7.93I 12.61%NM 11.96%EV -5.87%E -0.741%K -0.847%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.25%EV -2.70%E -0.492%K -0.601%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-21 17:00
DraftKings1.34I 74.63%NM 70.31%EV -5.61%E -4.19%K -16.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.56%EV -10.98%E -1.46%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.13%EV -2.70%E -0.492%K -0.601%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-21 23:50
SportsBet1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -8.43%E -6.48%K -28.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -5.04%E -0.630%K -0.720%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -2.70%E -0.492%K -0.601%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-22 00:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -8.43%E -6.48%K -28.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -5.04%E -0.630%K -0.720%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -2.70%E -0.492%K -0.601%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-22 00:35
1xBet1.32I 75.76%NM 70.57%EV -7.02%E -5.32%K -21.93%G +0.000%7.65I 13.07%NM 12.18%EV -9.20%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.25%EV -4.47%E -0.828%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:40
Marathon Bet1.31I 76.34%NM 70.78%EV -7.72%E -5.90%K -24.91%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.89%EV -7.42%E -0.951%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.33%EV -5.36%E -1.00%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-22 00:40
GTbets1.31I 76.34%NM 70.49%EV -7.72%E -5.90%K -24.91%G +0.000%7.58I 13.19%NM 12.18%EV -10.03%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 17.33%EV -5.71%E -1.07%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-21 22:00
Fanatics1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -6.31%E -4.75%K -19.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -5.04%E -0.630%K -0.720%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -7.13%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-22 00:40
BetUS1.31I 76.34%NM 70.22%EV -7.72%E -5.90%K -24.91%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -10.98%E -1.46%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.52%EV -7.13%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-22 00:40
Everygame1.28I 78.13%NM 70.70%EV -9.84%E -7.68%K -35.13%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.07%EV -10.98%E -1.46%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.24%EV -7.13%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-22 00:35
Svenska Spel1.35I 74.07%NM 70.50%EV -4.91%E -3.63%K -14.02%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.20%EV +0.893%E +0.105%K +0.119%G +0.001%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.30%EV -8.01%E -1.54%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-22 00:20
ATG (SE)1.35I 74.07%NM 70.50%EV -4.91%E -3.63%K -14.02%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.20%EV +0.893%E +0.105%K +0.119%G +0.001%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.30%EV -8.01%E -1.54%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-22 00:20
LeoVegas1.33I 75.19%NM 69.30%EV -6.31%E -4.75%K -19.14%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 12.98%EV -15.72%E -2.21%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%EV -8.01%E -1.54%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-22 00:40
Tipico (DE)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.59%EV -8.43%E -6.48%K -28.09%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.76%EV -7.42%E -0.951%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.65%EV -8.01%E -1.54%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-21 04:35
betPARX1.32I 75.76%NM 70.23%EV -7.02%E -5.32%K -21.93%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -5.04%E -0.630%K -0.720%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.18%EV -9.78%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-22 00:35
Fliff1.31I 76.34%NM 69.80%EV -7.72%E -5.90%K -24.91%G +0.000%7.45I 13.42%NM 12.27%EV -11.57%E -1.55%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.93%EV -9.78%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-22 00:35
Bet Victor1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -6.31%E -4.75%K -19.14%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV +0.893%E +0.105%K +0.119%G +0.001%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-21 13:04
betano_uk1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -6.31%E -4.75%K -19.14%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV +0.893%E +0.105%K +0.119%G +0.001%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-21 13:05
Unibet (UK)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -4.91%E -3.63%K -14.02%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -10.98%E -1.46%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-22 00:09
Unibet (NL)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.82%EV -6.31%E -4.75%K -19.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -5.04%E -0.630%K -0.720%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-22 00:40
Casumo1.33I 75.19%NM 69.82%EV -6.31%E -4.75%K -19.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -5.04%E -0.630%K -0.720%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-22 00:40
Unibet (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.82%EV -6.31%E -4.75%K -19.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -5.04%E -0.630%K -0.720%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-22 00:40
Grosvenor1.33I 75.19%NM 69.82%EV -6.31%E -4.75%K -19.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -5.04%E -0.630%K -0.720%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-22 00:40
Unibet1.33I 75.19%NM 69.82%EV -6.31%E -4.75%K -19.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -5.04%E -0.630%K -0.720%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-22 00:40
BetRivers1.32I 75.76%NM 69.98%EV -7.02%E -5.32%K -21.93%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -5.04%E -0.630%K -0.720%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-22 00:35
betfred_uk1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.43%E -6.48%K -28.09%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -10.98%E -1.46%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-21 20:45
Sky Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -9.13%E -7.08%K -31.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -16.91%E -2.42%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-22 00:35
Paddy Power1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -11.95%E -9.56%K -47.80%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -10.98%E -1.46%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-22 00:35
NetBet (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 70.17%EV -12.65%E -10.21%K -52.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.43%EV -16.91%E -2.42%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.40%EV -11.55%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%14.9%2026-07-22 00:35
NordicBet1.35I 74.07%NM 69.27%EV -4.91%E -3.63%K -14.02%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.84%EV -6.23%E -0.788%K -0.903%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.89%EV -12.43%E -2.51%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 00:35
Betsson1.35I 74.07%NM 69.27%EV -4.91%E -3.63%K -14.02%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.84%EV -6.23%E -0.788%K -0.903%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.89%EV -12.43%E -2.51%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 00:35
TABtouch1.32I 75.76%NM 69.72%EV -7.02%E -5.32%K -21.93%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -5.04%E -0.630%K -0.720%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV -13.32%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-22 00:40
Bet Right1.32I 75.76%NM 69.72%EV -7.02%E -5.32%K -21.93%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -5.04%E -0.630%K -0.720%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV -13.32%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-21 20:45
LiveScore Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 70.04%EV -8.43%E -6.48%K -28.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -5.04%E -0.630%K -0.720%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -13.32%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-22 00:34
LeoVegas (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.04%EV -8.43%E -6.48%K -28.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -5.04%E -0.630%K -0.720%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -13.32%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-22 00:35
PlayUp1.35I 74.07%NM 68.57%EV -4.91%E -3.63%K -14.02%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV -10.98%E -1.46%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.09%EV -14.20%E -2.93%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-22 00:35
Betclic (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -8.43%E -6.48%K -28.09%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 12.94%EV -18.10%E -2.62%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.40%EV -14.20%E -2.93%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-22 00:39
Virgin Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -9.13%E -7.08%K -31.49%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.28%EV -5.04%E -0.630%K -0.720%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.79%EV -15.09%E -3.14%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-22 00:40
888sport1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -8.43%E -6.48%K -28.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -16.91%E -2.42%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -15.09%E -3.14%K -3.97%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-22 00:35
William Hill1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -8.43%E -6.48%K -28.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -16.91%E -2.42%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -15.09%E -3.14%K -3.97%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-22 00:35
Mr Green (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -8.43%E -6.48%K -28.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -16.91%E -2.42%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -15.09%E -3.14%K -3.97%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-22 00:35
888sport (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -8.43%E -6.48%K -28.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -16.91%E -2.42%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -15.09%E -3.14%K -3.97%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-22 00:35
PMU (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 69.63%EV -11.25%E -8.93%K -43.25%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.70%EV -10.98%E -1.46%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.67%EV -16.86%E -3.59%K -4.56%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-22 00:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.03%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%0.8%2026-07-22 00:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.36I 73.53%NM 72.58%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.97%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-07-22 00:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 72.58%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.97%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-07-22 00:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 72.40%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.19%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.41%1.6%2026-07-22 00:40
Smarkets1.36I 73.53%NM 72.40%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.19%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.41%1.6%2026-07-22 00:40
Kalshi1.37I 72.99%NM 71.56%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.75%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.69%2.0%2026-07-22 00:20