Language:English
Waterford FC v Derry City
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Waterford FC (Local)
Prediction 21.66%4.62fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -0.514%
Kelly -0.661%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.73%21.78%21.69%23.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.184.204.5126.32%23.95%23.81%22.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Derry City (Visit)
Prediction 52.95%1.89fair odd
EV -4.70%
Edge -2.61%
Kelly -5.87%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.06%52.88%52.93%54.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.751.751.8061.35%57.30%57.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.40%3.94fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -0.578%
Kelly -0.780%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.12%25.34%25.38%27.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.563.553.8532.26%28.06%28.17%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Waterford FC (Local): 21.66%; Derry City (Visit): 52.95%; Draw: 25.40%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.85, with an expected value of -2.22%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.51I 22.17%NM 21.26%EV -2.32%E -0.514%K -0.661%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.57%EV -5.23%E -2.92%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.81I 26.25%NM 25.17%EV -3.24%E -0.850%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-15 18:44 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -2.54%E -0.564%K -0.725%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -8.93%E -5.19%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -4.76%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-15 18:44 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -2.54%E -0.564%K -0.725%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -8.40%E -4.86%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.35%EV -6.54%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-15 18:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.67%EV -4.70%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.57%EV -5.76%E -3.23%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -2.22%E -0.578%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-15 18:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -4.70%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -7.35%E -4.20%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -4.76%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-15 18:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -4.70%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -7.35%E -4.20%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -4.76%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -4.70%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.29%EV -7.35%E -4.20%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -13.65%E -4.02%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.05%EV -6.22%E -1.44%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.62%EV -9.99%E -5.88%K -14.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-15 18:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -6.87%E -1.60%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.91%EV -6.29%E -3.55%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV -6.03%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -6.87%E -1.60%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.54%EV -6.29%E -3.55%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -6.87%E -1.60%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.44%EV -7.35%E -4.20%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -11.11%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.77%EV -7.95%E -1.87%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -7.35%E -4.20%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -7.30%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-15 18:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.77%EV -7.95%E -1.87%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -7.35%E -4.20%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -7.30%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-15 18:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -7.95%E -1.87%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -7.35%E -4.20%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -7.95%E -1.87%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.83%EV -7.88%E -4.53%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-15 18:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -9.03%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -4.70%E -2.61%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -9.03%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.94%EV -5.76%E -3.23%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -9.84%E -2.77%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -9.03%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.94%EV -5.76%E -3.23%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -9.84%E -2.77%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -9.03%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.94%EV -5.76%E -3.23%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -9.84%E -2.77%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -9.03%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.94%EV -5.76%E -3.23%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -9.84%E -2.77%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -9.03%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.94%EV -5.76%E -3.23%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -9.84%E -2.77%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -9.03%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.94%EV -5.76%E -3.23%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -9.84%E -2.77%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -9.03%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.94%EV -5.76%E -3.23%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -9.84%E -2.77%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -9.03%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.94%EV -5.76%E -3.23%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -9.84%E -2.77%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-15 18:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -9.03%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.94%EV -5.76%E -3.23%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -9.84%E -2.77%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -9.03%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.88%EV -7.88%E -4.53%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -7.30%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-15 18:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -9.03%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.88%EV -7.88%E -4.53%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -7.30%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-15 18:44 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -9.03%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.88%EV -7.88%E -4.53%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -7.30%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-15 18:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -9.03%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.35%E -4.20%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-15 18:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.03%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.35%E -4.20%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.11%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -11.20%E -2.73%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.42%EV -7.88%E -4.53%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -11.20%E -2.73%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.90%EV -7.35%E -4.20%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -11.11%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.09%EV -11.20%E -2.73%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.04%EV -7.88%E -4.53%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.11%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.09%EV -11.20%E -2.73%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.04%EV -7.88%E -4.53%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.11%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -11.20%E -2.73%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.52%EV -8.93%E -5.19%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.45%EV -9.84%E -2.77%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-15 18:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -13.37%E -3.34%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.97%EV -8.40%E -4.86%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -3.49%E -0.920%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -13.37%E -3.34%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.90%EV -8.40%E -4.86%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -11.11%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-15 18:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -13.37%E -3.34%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.90%EV -8.40%E -4.86%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -11.11%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-15 18:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -13.37%E -3.34%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.90%EV -8.40%E -4.86%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -11.11%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-15 18:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -13.37%E -3.34%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.90%EV -8.40%E -4.86%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -11.11%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -13.37%E -3.34%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.90%EV -8.40%E -4.86%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -11.11%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -13.37%E -3.34%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -8.40%E -4.86%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -13.65%E -4.02%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.75%EV -13.37%E -3.34%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 53.38%EV -13.70%E -8.40%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.86%EV -11.11%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-05-15 18:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.34%EV -13.37%E -3.34%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 51.12%EV -11.58%E -6.94%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.54%EV -21.27%E -6.86%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 17.1% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.87%EV -14.45%E -3.66%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.32%EV -6.82%E -3.87%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -11.11%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.30%EV -14.45%E -3.66%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.80%EV -9.99%E -5.88%K -14.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.90%EV -13.65%E -4.02%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.34%EV -15.53%E -3.98%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.25%EV -9.99%E -5.88%K -14.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.40%EV -16.19%E -4.91%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.11%EV -17.70%E -4.66%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.06%EV -8.93%E -5.19%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -13.65%E -4.02%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.19% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.27% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.54% | 0.4% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.19% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.27% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.54% | 0.4% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.00% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.36% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.64% | 1.3% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.23% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.07% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.70% | 2.4% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |