Language:English
Dundalk v Derry City
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Dundalk (Local)
Prediction 37.85%2.64fair odd
EV +5.99%
Edge +2.14%
Kelly +3.33%
Growth +0.200%
assuming max odds 2.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.57%37.72%37.92%39.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.472.452.8044.44%40.46%40.82%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Derry City (Visit)
Prediction 32.81%3.05fair odd
EV -0.258%
Edge -0.085%
Kelly -0.127%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.68%32.95%32.66%38.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.722.653.0441.67%36.75%37.74%32.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.34%3.41fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -0.515%
Kelly -0.734%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.88%29.33%29.41%30.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.103.103.3535.71%32.28%32.26%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dundalk (Local): 37.85%; Derry City (Visit): 32.81%; Draw: 29.34%. For Dundalk (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.64. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.99%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV +5.99%E +2.14%K +3.33%G +0.200% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -21.26%E -8.86%K -15.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-10 18:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -1.58%E -0.607%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.05%E -4.93%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-10 18:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -1.58%E -0.607%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.05%E -4.93%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-10 18:01 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -1.58%E -0.607%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.05%E -4.93%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-10 18:01 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -1.58%E -0.607%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.05%E -4.93%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-10 18:01 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -1.58%E -0.607%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.05%E -4.93%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-10 18:01 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -1.58%E -0.607%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.05%E -4.93%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-10 18:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -1.58%E -0.607%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.05%E -4.93%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-10 18:01 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -1.58%E -0.607%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.05%E -4.93%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-10 18:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -1.58%E -0.607%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.05%E -4.93%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-10 18:01 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -1.58%E -0.607%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.05%E -4.93%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-10 18:01 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -1.58%E -0.607%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -13.05%E -4.93%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-10 18:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.64%EV -3.47%E -1.36%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.56%EV -13.71%E -5.21%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -10.53%E -3.45%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-10 18:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.95%EV -5.36%E -2.15%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.29%EV -6.49%E -2.28%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.19%E -0.967%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-10 17:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.83%EV -5.36%E -2.15%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -4.85%E -1.67%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -6.13%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-10 18:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -5.36%E -2.15%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -6.49%E -2.28%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.92%EV -8.47%E -2.72%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-10 18:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -5.36%E -2.15%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -13.05%E -4.93%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-10 17:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.96%EV -5.36%E -2.15%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.57%EV -14.69%E -5.65%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.47%EV -10.53%E -3.45%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-10 18:01 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.96%EV -5.36%E -2.15%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.57%EV -14.69%E -5.65%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.47%EV -10.53%E -3.45%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-10 18:01 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.68%EV -5.74%E -2.31%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.68%EV -0.258%E -0.085%K -0.127%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.64%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-10 18:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 35.55%EV -6.12%E -2.47%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.57%EV -16.34%E -6.41%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.88%EV -13.46%E -4.56%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-04-10 18:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -7.26%E -2.96%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -3.21%E -1.09%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-10 18:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.92%EV -7.26%E -2.96%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.59%EV -6.49%E -2.28%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -7.59%E -2.41%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-10 18:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.47%EV -7.26%E -2.96%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.38%EV -9.77%E -3.55%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -7.59%E -2.41%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-10 17:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -7.26%E -2.96%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -11.41%E -4.23%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -6.13%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-10 17:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -7.26%E -2.96%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -14.69%E -5.65%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-10 17:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -7.26%E -2.96%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -14.69%E -5.65%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-10 17:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -7.26%E -2.96%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -14.69%E -5.65%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-10 17:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -7.26%E -2.96%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -14.69%E -5.65%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-10 17:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.07%EV -8.39%E -3.47%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.67%EV -7.48%E -2.65%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.25%EV -7.59%E -2.41%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-10 18:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.07%EV -8.39%E -3.47%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.67%EV -7.48%E -2.65%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.25%EV -7.59%E -2.41%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-10 18:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -9.15%E -3.81%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -4.85%E -1.67%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-10 17:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.18%EV -9.15%E -3.81%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -8.13%E -2.90%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -7.59%E -2.41%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-10 18:39 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.18%EV -9.15%E -3.81%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -8.13%E -2.90%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -7.59%E -2.41%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-10 18:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -9.15%E -3.81%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.77%E -3.55%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.13%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-10 18:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -9.15%E -3.81%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.13%E -2.90%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-10 18:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -9.15%E -3.81%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.13%E -2.90%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-10 18:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -9.15%E -3.81%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -8.13%E -2.90%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -11.99%E -4.00%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-10 17:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -9.15%E -3.81%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -8.13%E -2.90%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -11.99%E -4.00%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-10 17:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.24%EV -9.91%E -4.16%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.88%EV -6.82%E -2.40%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -1.73%E -0.515%K -0.734%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-10 18:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -9.91%E -4.16%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -8.13%E -2.90%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -14.93%E -5.15%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-04-10 18:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.63%EV -11.04%E -4.70%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.77%E -3.55%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -6.13%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-10 18:24 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.53%EV -11.04%E -4.70%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -6.49%E -2.28%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -10.53%E -3.45%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-10 18:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.32%EV -12.93%E -5.62%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.26%EV -13.05%E -4.93%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.43%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-04-10 18:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.91%EV -12.93%E -5.62%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.71%EV -9.77%E -3.55%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 30.38%EV -15.81%E -5.51%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-04-10 18:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.09%EV -12.93%E -5.62%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 32.44%EV -13.71%E -5.21%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.47%EV -17.86%E -6.38%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 17.2% | 2026-04-10 17:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.29%EV -14.83%E -6.59%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 32.51%EV -13.05%E -4.93%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.20%EV -13.46%E -4.56%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 16.1% | 2026-04-10 18:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.89% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 0.7% | 2026-04-10 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.07% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.00% | 1.0% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.07% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.00% | 1.0% | 2026-04-10 18:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.07% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.00% | 1.0% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |