Language:English
Dundalk v Derry City
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Dundalk (Local)
Prediction 41.45%2.41fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.84%41.52%41.37%43.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.212.252.3548.78%45.20%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Derry City (Visit)
Prediction 30.30%3.30fair odd
EV +0.601%
Edge +0.181%
Kelly +0.259%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 3.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.68%30.22%30.40%31.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.023.053.3235.71%33.14%32.79%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.24%3.54fair odd
EV -3.41%
Edge -0.996%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.28%28.26%28.23%29.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.223.253.4234.72%31.08%30.77%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dundalk (Local): 41.45%; Derry City (Visit): 30.30%; Draw: 28.24%. For Derry City (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.30. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.32, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.601%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.60%EV -6.31%E -2.79%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 29.00%EV +0.601%E +0.181%K +0.259%G +0.002% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.40%EV -4.25%E -1.25%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -3.04%E -0.949%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -5.38%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-29 18:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.66%EV -8.80%E -4.00%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -3.04%E -0.949%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -5.38%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.66%EV -8.80%E -4.00%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -3.04%E -0.949%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -5.38%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.80%E -4.00%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -3.04%E -0.949%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -12.44%E -4.01%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 42.82%EV -9.21%E -4.21%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.77%EV -4.55%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.42%EV -3.41%E -0.996%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.00%EV -10.04%E -4.63%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 29.72%EV -4.85%E -1.55%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.28%EV -3.41%E -0.996%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-29 18:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -6.07%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.62%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -10.87%E -5.06%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.07%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.62%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-29 18:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -10.87%E -5.06%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -6.07%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -11.03%E -3.50%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -7.58%E -2.49%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -7.58%E -2.49%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -7.58%E -2.49%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -7.58%E -2.49%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -7.58%E -2.49%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -7.58%E -2.49%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-29 18:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -7.58%E -2.49%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -7.58%E -2.49%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -7.58%E -2.49%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-29 18:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -7.58%E -2.49%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -7.58%E -2.49%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -7.58%E -2.49%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -8.80%E -4.00%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.58%E -2.49%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-29 18:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -8.80%E -4.00%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.58%E -2.49%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-29 18:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -8.80%E -4.00%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.58%E -2.49%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-29 18:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -2.58%E -1.10%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -9.10%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -3.97%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-29 18:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -9.10%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.62%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.80%E -4.00%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.10%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.98%EV -7.56%E -3.39%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.46%EV -9.10%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -9.62%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.80%E -4.00%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.10%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.62%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -10.87%E -5.06%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -9.10%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.44%E -4.01%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-29 18:29 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -10.87%E -5.06%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -9.10%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -15.27%E -5.09%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-29 18:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -10.61%E -3.60%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-29 18:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -10.61%E -3.60%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-29 18:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -10.61%E -3.60%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-29 18:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.55%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -10.61%E -3.60%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -9.62%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -8.80%E -4.00%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -10.61%E -3.60%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.13%EV -9.63%E -4.42%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.40%EV -10.61%E -3.60%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.47%EV -11.03%E -3.50%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.13%EV -9.63%E -4.42%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.40%EV -10.61%E -3.60%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.47%EV -11.03%E -3.50%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 41.18%EV -11.29%E -5.27%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.39%EV -12.13%E -4.18%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.43%EV -12.44%E -4.01%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.25%EV -12.94%E -6.16%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.87%EV -12.13%E -4.18%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.88%EV -15.27%E -5.09%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-05-29 18:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.23%EV -15.02%E -7.33%K -14.30%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.85%EV -12.13%E -4.18%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.92%EV -12.44%E -4.01%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -12.73%E -4.42%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -12.44%E -4.01%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -12.73%E -4.42%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -12.44%E -4.01%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -8.80%E -4.00%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -12.73%E -4.42%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -9.62%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-29 18:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -13.03%E -4.54%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -12.44%E -4.01%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -6.73%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -13.03%E -4.54%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -12.44%E -4.01%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.61%EV -12.94%E -6.16%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.66%EV -13.64%E -4.79%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.74%EV -11.03%E -3.50%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-05-29 18:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 40.34%EV -12.94%E -6.16%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.25%EV -15.16%E -5.41%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -18.66%E -6.48%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 18.1% | 2026-05-29 18:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 0.8% | 2026-05-29 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.69% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.37% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.94% | 1.6% | 2026-05-29 18:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.69% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.37% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.94% | 1.6% | 2026-05-29 18:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.69% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.37% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.94% | 1.6% | 2026-05-29 18:30 |