Language:English
Derry City v Galway United
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Derry City (Local)
Prediction 51.39%1.95fair odd
EV -3.91%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -4.49%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.87
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.41%51.34%51.42%52.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.791.791.8758.82%56.00%55.87%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Galway United (Visit)
Prediction 21.73%4.60fair odd
EV -0.036%
Edge -0.008%
Kelly -0.010%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.37%21.77%21.66%23.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.214.204.6026.32%23.77%23.81%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.88%3.72fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -0.817%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.64%26.88%26.92%28.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.373.403.6133.33%29.71%29.41%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Derry City (Local): 51.39%; Galway United (Visit): 21.73%; Draw: 26.88%. For Galway United (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.602. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.600, with an expected value of -0.036%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.98%EV -3.91%E -2.09%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.17%EV -6.56%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.85%EV -4.56%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-04 15:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.94%EV -4.94%E -2.67%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 4.48I 22.32%NM 21.45%EV -2.64%E -0.590%K -0.760%G +0.000% | 3.61I 27.70%NM 26.62%EV -2.95%E -0.817%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-04 15:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.82%EV -5.45%E -2.96%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.19I 23.87%NM 22.32%EV -8.95%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.87%EV -6.45%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 15:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.98%EV -5.97%E -3.26%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -10.90%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-04 15:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.66%EV -6.48%E -3.56%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.22%EV -9.82%E -2.37%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.66%EV -6.48%E -3.56%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.22%EV -9.82%E -2.37%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 15:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.10%EV -6.99%E -3.86%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -2.21%E -0.491%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -5.91%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-04 15:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.10%EV -6.99%E -3.86%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -2.21%E -0.491%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -5.91%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-04 15:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.10%EV -6.99%E -3.86%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -2.21%E -0.491%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -5.91%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-04 15:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.52%EV -6.99%E -3.86%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -6.56%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.80%EV -6.45%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -7.51%E -4.17%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -0.036%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-04 15:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -7.51%E -4.17%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -13.07%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -3.22%E -0.894%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-04 15:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.20%EV -7.51%E -4.17%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -7.64%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 15:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -7.51%E -4.17%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-04 15:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.80%EV -7.51%E -4.17%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -10.90%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-04 15:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.80%EV -7.51%E -4.17%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -10.90%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-04 15:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.72%EV -7.51%E -4.17%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.82%EV -13.07%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -7.25%E -2.10%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-04 15:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -7.51%E -4.17%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-04 15:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -7.51%E -4.17%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -15.25%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -13.97%E -4.37%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-04 15:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -7.51%E -4.17%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -15.25%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -13.97%E -4.37%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-04 15:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -7.51%E -4.17%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -15.25%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -13.97%E -4.37%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-04 15:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -7.51%E -4.17%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -15.25%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -13.97%E -4.37%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-04 15:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.47%EV -8.02%E -4.48%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -6.56%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 15:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.47%EV -8.02%E -4.48%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -6.56%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 15:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.47%EV -8.02%E -4.48%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -6.56%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 15:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.47%EV -8.02%E -4.48%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -6.56%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 15:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.47%EV -8.02%E -4.48%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -6.56%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 15:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.47%EV -8.02%E -4.48%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -6.56%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 15:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.47%EV -8.02%E -4.48%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -6.56%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 15:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.47%EV -8.02%E -4.48%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -6.56%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 15:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.47%EV -8.02%E -4.48%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -6.56%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 15:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.47%EV -8.02%E -4.48%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -6.56%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 15:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.47%EV -8.02%E -4.48%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -6.56%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 15:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.88%EV -8.53%E -4.79%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.73%EV -7.64%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -5.91%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-04 15:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.01%EV -9.05%E -5.11%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -4.38%E -0.996%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-04 15:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.42%EV -9.05%E -5.11%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.41%EV -7.64%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.94%E -2.97%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-04 15:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.22%EV -9.05%E -5.11%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.11%EV -10.90%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.87%EV -10.08%E -5.76%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -4.38%E -0.996%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-04 15:45 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.57%EV -10.08%E -5.76%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.49%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -9.94%E -2.97%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-04 15:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.36%EV -10.08%E -5.76%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-04 15:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.36%EV -10.08%E -5.76%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-04 15:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -10.08%E -5.76%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -13.97%E -4.37%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-04 15:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 50.37%EV -10.59%E -6.09%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.07%EV -17.42%E -4.58%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-05-04 15:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.65%EV -11.10%E -6.42%K -15.21%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-04 15:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.77%EV -11.10%E -6.42%K -15.21%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.53%EV -13.07%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.70%EV -19.35%E -6.45%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 16.1% | 2026-05-04 15:44 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 51.46%EV -12.13%E -7.09%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.46%EV -10.90%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.08%EV -12.63%E -3.89%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-04 15:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.20%EV -12.65%E -7.44%K -18.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.72%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.08%EV -16.66%E -5.37%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-05-04 15:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.19%EV -12.65%E -7.44%K -18.06%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.03%EV -14.16%E -3.59%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.78%EV -12.63%E -3.89%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-05-04 15:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.75% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.94% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.31% | 0.3% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.75% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.94% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.31% | 0.3% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.75% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.94% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.31% | 0.3% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.75% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.94% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.31% | 0.3% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |