Language:English
Incheon United v Gwangju FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Incheon United (Local)
Prediction 62.42%1.60fair odd
EV -3.87%
Edge -2.51%
Kelly -7.16%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.71%62.35%62.40%64.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.461.461.5473.53%68.31%68.73%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Gwangju FC (Visit)
Prediction 13.34%7.50fair odd
EV +3.39%
Edge +0.438%
Kelly +0.503%
Growth +0.017%
assuming max odds 7.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.12%13.38%13.38%15.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.806.746.507.7517.24%14.84%15.38%12.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.24%4.13fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -0.640%
Kelly -0.852%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.57%24.26%24.22%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.763.754.0228.57%26.61%26.67%24.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Incheon United (Local): 62.42%; Gwangju FC (Visit): 13.34%; Draw: 24.24%. For Gwangju FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.50. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.39%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.52%EV -5.12%E -3.37%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.46%EV +3.39%E +0.438%K +0.503%G +0.017% | 4.02I 24.88%NM 24.02%EV -2.57%E -0.640%K -0.852%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-16 09:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.48%EV -7.61%E -5.14%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.12%EV +3.39%E +0.438%K +0.503%G +0.017% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -6.69%E -1.74%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-16 09:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.86%EV -6.36%E -4.24%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV +0.058%E +0.008%K +0.009%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -12.75%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-16 09:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -8.24%E -5.60%K -17.53%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV +0.058%E +0.008%K +0.009%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.69%EV -9.12%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-16 09:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.05%EV -10.11%E -7.02%K -22.98%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV +0.058%E +0.008%K +0.009%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -5.48%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-16 09:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.50%EV -9.49%E -6.54%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV +0.058%E +0.008%K +0.009%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -7.91%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-16 09:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.00%EV -6.36%E -4.24%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.77%EV -1.28%E -0.172%K -0.199%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.23%EV -5.48%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-16 09:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.00%EV -6.36%E -4.24%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.77%EV -1.28%E -0.172%K -0.199%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.23%EV -5.48%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-16 09:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.01%EV -7.61%E -5.14%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.77%EV -2.61%E -0.358%K -0.414%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -6.69%E -1.74%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-16 09:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.66%EV -3.87%E -2.51%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 7.29I 13.72%NM 13.02%EV -2.74%E -0.376%K -0.436%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.32%EV -9.12%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 09:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.39%EV -9.49%E -6.54%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.48%EV -3.28%E -0.452%K -0.524%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.13%EV -12.75%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-16 09:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.92%EV -6.36%E -4.24%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.61%E -0.945%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -3.06%E -0.765%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-16 09:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.39%EV -5.74%E -3.80%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -6.61%E -0.945%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.16%EV -5.48%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 09:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.15%EV -6.36%E -4.24%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -6.61%E -0.945%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -7.91%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-16 09:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.46%EV -7.61%E -5.14%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -6.61%E -0.945%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -7.91%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-16 08:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.62%EV -8.24%E -5.60%K -17.53%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -6.61%E -0.945%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -7.91%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-16 09:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.70%EV -10.11%E -7.02%K -22.98%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -6.61%E -0.945%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -10.33%E -2.79%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-16 09:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.70%EV -10.11%E -7.02%K -22.98%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -6.61%E -0.945%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -10.33%E -2.79%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-16 09:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.56%EV -12.61%E -9.01%K -31.52%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.71%EV -6.61%E -0.945%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -9.12%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-16 09:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.23%EV -6.36%E -4.24%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.83%EV -9.95%E -1.47%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -5.48%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-16 09:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.20%EV -6.99%E -4.69%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.73%EV -9.95%E -1.47%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.07%EV -6.69%E -1.74%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-16 09:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.64%EV -6.36%E -4.24%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.70%EV -9.95%E -1.47%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -9.12%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-16 09:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 62.89%EV -15.10%E -11.11%K -41.96%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 12.67%EV -9.95%E -1.47%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.44%EV -15.18%E -4.34%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-05-16 09:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.28%EV -6.99%E -4.69%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.05%EV -13.28%E -2.04%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -10.33%E -2.79%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-16 09:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.28%EV -6.99%E -4.69%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.05%EV -13.28%E -2.04%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -10.33%E -2.79%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-16 09:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.32%EV -9.49%E -6.54%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -13.28%E -2.04%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -7.91%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-16 09:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.32%EV -9.49%E -6.54%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -13.28%E -2.04%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -7.91%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-16 09:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.12%EV -9.49%E -6.54%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.86%EV -13.28%E -2.04%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -9.12%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-16 09:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.12%EV -9.49%E -6.54%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.86%EV -13.28%E -2.04%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -9.12%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-16 09:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.12%EV -9.49%E -6.54%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.86%EV -13.28%E -2.04%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -9.12%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-16 09:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.28%EV -10.11%E -7.02%K -22.98%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.80%EV -13.28%E -2.04%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -9.12%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-16 09:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.28%EV -10.11%E -7.02%K -22.98%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.80%EV -13.28%E -2.04%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -9.12%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-16 09:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.28%EV -10.11%E -7.02%K -22.98%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.80%EV -13.28%E -2.04%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -9.12%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-16 09:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.28%EV -10.11%E -7.02%K -22.98%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.80%EV -13.28%E -2.04%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -9.12%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-16 09:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.28%EV -10.11%E -7.02%K -22.98%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.80%EV -13.28%E -2.04%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -9.12%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-16 09:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.28%EV -10.11%E -7.02%K -22.98%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.80%EV -13.28%E -2.04%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -9.12%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-16 09:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.28%EV -10.11%E -7.02%K -22.98%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.80%EV -13.28%E -2.04%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -9.12%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-16 09:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.67%EV -10.11%E -7.02%K -22.98%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.66%EV -13.28%E -2.04%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -12.75%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-16 09:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 61.34%EV -8.86%E -6.07%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.99%EV -14.62%E -2.28%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 24.67%EV -12.03%E -3.31%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-16 09:36 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 62.45%EV -11.98%E -8.50%K -29.23%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.76%EV -14.62%E -2.28%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.80%EV -10.33%E -2.79%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-16 09:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.74%EV -10.11%E -7.02%K -22.98%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.23%EV -16.62%E -2.66%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.03%EV -10.33%E -2.79%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-16 05:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.31%EV -7.61%E -5.14%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -19.95%E -3.33%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -6.69%E -1.74%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-16 09:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.73%EV -7.61%E -5.14%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -19.95%E -3.33%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.29%EV -10.33%E -2.79%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-16 09:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.73%EV -7.61%E -5.14%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -19.95%E -3.33%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.29%EV -10.33%E -2.79%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-16 09:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.73%EV -7.61%E -5.14%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -19.95%E -3.33%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.29%EV -10.33%E -2.79%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-16 09:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.73%EV -7.61%E -5.14%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -19.95%E -3.33%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.29%EV -10.33%E -2.79%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-16 09:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.98%EV -10.11%E -7.02%K -22.98%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.63%EV -19.95%E -3.33%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -12.75%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-16 09:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 60.71%EV -9.49%E -6.54%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.18%EV -22.62%E -3.90%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.12%EV -11.54%E -3.16%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-16 09:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.32% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.16% | 1.0% | 2026-05-16 09:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.32% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.16% | 1.0% | 2026-05-16 09:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.30% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.71% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.99% | 1.7% | 2026-05-16 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.30% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.71% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.99% | 1.7% | 2026-05-16 09:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.30% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.71% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.99% | 1.7% | 2026-05-16 09:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.64% | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.80% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.56% | 1.8% | 2026-05-16 09:55 |