Language:English
Tokyo Verdy v Kashiwa Reysol
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tokyo Verdy (Local)
Prediction 20.96%4.77fair odd
EV -1.28%
Edge -0.271%
Kelly -0.344%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.71
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.03%20.97%20.96%22.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.334.284.7125.00%23.07%23.39%21.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Kashiwa Reysol (Visit)
Prediction 50.97%1.96fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -3.51%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.69%50.97%51.02%52.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.821.831.9057.14%54.82%54.64%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.07%3.56fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -0.830%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.03%28.06%28.03%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.263.253.4632.26%30.66%30.77%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tokyo Verdy (Local): 20.96%; Kashiwa Reysol (Visit): 50.97%; Draw: 28.07%. For Tokyo Verdy (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.71, with an expected value of -1.28%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.71I 21.23%NM 20.53%EV -1.28%E -0.271%K -0.344%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.44%EV -4.18%E -2.22%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.03%EV -3.15%E -0.914%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-14 09:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.45%EV -1.48%E -0.316%K -0.401%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.68%EV -5.20%E -2.80%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.86%EV -3.15%E -0.914%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-14 09:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.45%EV -1.48%E -0.316%K -0.401%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.68%EV -5.20%E -2.80%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.86%EV -3.15%E -0.914%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-14 09:24 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.45%EV -1.48%E -0.316%K -0.401%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.68%EV -5.20%E -2.80%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.86%EV -3.15%E -0.914%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-14 09:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -3.58%E -0.778%K -0.995%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.05%EV -9.79%E -5.53%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -7.36%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-14 09:53 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -3.58%E -0.778%K -0.995%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.05%EV -9.79%E -5.53%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -7.36%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-14 09:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -5.68%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.20%EV -6.73%E -3.68%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.96%E -1.78%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 09:43 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -5.68%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.20%EV -6.73%E -3.68%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.96%E -1.78%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 09:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -5.68%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -6.73%E -3.68%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -7.36%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-14 09:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -5.68%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -6.73%E -3.68%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -7.36%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-14 09:33 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -5.68%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.96%EV -8.26%E -4.59%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.17%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-14 09:44 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.96%EV -6.73%E -1.51%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.96%EV -6.73%E -3.68%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.09%EV -6.80%E -2.05%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-14 09:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.58%EV -7.77%E -1.77%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.50%EV -4.18%E -2.22%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -4.56%E -1.34%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 07:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -7.77%E -1.77%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.31%EV -6.73%E -3.68%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.17%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-14 09:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -7.77%E -1.77%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.31%EV -6.73%E -3.68%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.17%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-14 09:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -7.77%E -1.77%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.31%EV -6.73%E -3.68%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.17%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-14 09:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -7.77%E -1.77%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.31%EV -6.73%E -3.68%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.17%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-14 09:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -8.82%E -2.03%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -6.73%E -3.68%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -4.56%E -1.34%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-14 09:38 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.15%EV -8.82%E -2.03%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -7.24%E -3.98%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.77%E -2.70%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-14 09:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.15%EV -8.82%E -2.03%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -7.24%E -3.98%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.77%E -2.70%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-14 09:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.72%EV -9.24%E -2.13%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.25%EV -10.81%E -6.18%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -10.17%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-14 09:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.72%EV -9.24%E -2.13%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.25%EV -10.81%E -6.18%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -10.17%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-14 09:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV -9.87%E -2.30%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.01%EV -5.71%E -3.09%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -8.77%E -2.70%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-14 09:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -9.87%E -2.30%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.06%EV -6.73%E -3.68%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.63%EV -10.17%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-14 09:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.16%EV -9.87%E -2.30%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.11%EV -9.28%E -5.21%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 27.74%EV -7.92%E -2.42%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-14 09:38 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -10.92%E -2.57%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.89%EV -5.71%E -3.09%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -8.77%E -2.70%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-14 09:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -10.92%E -2.57%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.89%EV -5.71%E -3.09%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -8.77%E -2.70%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-14 09:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -10.92%E -2.57%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.89%EV -5.71%E -3.09%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -8.77%E -2.70%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-14 09:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -10.92%E -2.57%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.89%EV -5.71%E -3.09%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -8.77%E -2.70%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-14 09:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -10.92%E -2.57%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.89%EV -5.71%E -3.09%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -8.77%E -2.70%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-14 09:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -10.92%E -2.57%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.89%EV -5.71%E -3.09%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -8.77%E -2.70%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-14 09:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -10.92%E -2.57%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.89%EV -5.71%E -3.09%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -8.77%E -2.70%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-14 09:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -10.92%E -2.57%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.89%EV -5.71%E -3.09%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -8.77%E -2.70%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-14 09:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -10.92%E -2.57%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.89%EV -5.71%E -3.09%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -8.77%E -2.70%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-14 09:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -10.92%E -2.57%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.89%EV -5.71%E -3.09%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -8.77%E -2.70%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-14 09:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -10.92%E -2.57%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.89%EV -5.71%E -3.09%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -8.77%E -2.70%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-14 09:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -11.97%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.96%EV -3.16%E -1.66%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.44%EV -2.87%E -0.830%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 09:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -11.97%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -6.73%E -3.68%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -8.77%E -2.70%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-14 07:14 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -11.97%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.95%EV -7.24%E -3.98%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -10.17%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-14 09:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -11.97%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.95%EV -7.24%E -3.98%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -10.17%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-14 09:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -11.97%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.95%EV -7.24%E -3.98%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -10.17%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-14 09:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -11.97%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.50%EV -9.28%E -5.21%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -10.17%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-14 09:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -11.97%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.26%E -4.59%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -12.98%E -4.19%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-14 09:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -11.97%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.26%E -4.59%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -12.98%E -4.19%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-14 09:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -11.97%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.26%E -4.59%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -12.98%E -4.19%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-14 09:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -11.97%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.26%E -4.59%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -12.98%E -4.19%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-14 09:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.03%EV -11.97%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.47%EV -10.81%E -6.18%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -12.98%E -4.19%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-14 09:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.09%EV -14.06%E -3.43%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.88%EV -9.28%E -5.21%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -5.96%E -1.78%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-14 09:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.06%EV -14.06%E -3.43%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.69%EV -7.24%E -3.98%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -10.17%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-14 07:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -16.16%E -4.04%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.68%EV -10.30%E -5.85%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -7.36%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-14 09:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.76% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73% | 1.0% | 2026-08-14 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.19% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.54% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.27% | 1.1% | 2026-08-14 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.19% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.54% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.27% | 1.1% | 2026-08-14 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.19% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.54% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.27% | 1.1% | 2026-08-14 09:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.19% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.54% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.27% | 1.1% | 2026-08-14 09:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.11% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.33% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.56% | 1.5% | 2026-08-14 09:50 |