Language:English
Fagiano Okayama v Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fagiano Okayama (Local)
Prediction 23.41%4.27fair odd
EV +6.06%
Edge +1.34%
Kelly +1.72%
Growth +0.104%
assuming max odds 4.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.93%23.43%23.37%24.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.903.854.5327.78%25.64%25.97%22.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit)
Prediction 49.87%2.01fair odd
EV -3.75%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -4.03%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.93
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.94%49.80%49.92%51.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.851.851.9356.82%54.04%54.05%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.72%3.74fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.532%
Kelly -0.731%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.01%26.77%26.71%27.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.443.463.6730.77%29.07%28.86%27.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fagiano Okayama (Local): 23.41%; Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit): 49.87%; Draw: 26.72%. For Fagiano Okayama (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.27. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.53, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.06%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.53I 22.08%NM 20.93%EV +6.06%E +1.34%K +1.72%G +0.104% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.82%EV -8.73%E -4.77%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.25%EV -7.03%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-06 08:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.23I 23.64%NM 22.84%EV -0.967%E -0.229%K -0.299%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.84%EV -5.24%E -2.76%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.32%EV -1.95%E -0.532%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-06 08:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -1.67%E -0.397%K -0.522%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -10.23%E -5.68%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-06 08:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.27%EV -4.01%E -0.978%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.22%EV -5.24%E -2.76%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -3.82%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-06 08:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.27%EV -4.01%E -0.978%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.22%EV -5.24%E -2.76%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -3.82%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-06 08:54 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.27%EV -4.01%E -0.978%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.22%EV -5.24%E -2.76%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -3.82%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-06 08:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.90%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.54%EV -3.75%E -1.94%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV -3.82%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 08:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.69%EV -5.74%E -3.04%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.49%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-06 08:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.14%EV -6.74%E -3.60%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -5.16%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-06 08:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -6.24%E -3.32%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.49%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-06 08:53 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -6.24%E -3.32%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.49%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-06 08:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -6.74%E -3.60%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -6.49%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-06 08:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -6.74%E -3.60%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -6.49%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-06 08:44 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.17%EV -7.24%E -3.89%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -5.96%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 08:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -8.73%E -4.77%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -11.84%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-06 08:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -8.73%E -4.77%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -11.84%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-06 08:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -8.73%E -4.77%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -11.84%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-06 08:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -8.73%E -4.77%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -11.84%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-06 08:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.18%EV -7.52%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -7.74%E -4.18%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -10.50%E -3.13%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-06 08:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.18%EV -7.52%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -7.74%E -4.18%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -10.50%E -3.13%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-06 08:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.93I 25.45%NM 23.14%EV -7.99%E -2.03%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.96%EV -9.23%E -5.07%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 26.90%EV -9.70%E -2.87%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-06 08:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -8.69%E -2.23%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.79%EV -12.23%E -6.95%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-06 08:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -9.86%E -2.56%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.56%EV -6.24%E -3.32%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -5.16%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-01 09:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -9.86%E -2.56%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.56%EV -6.24%E -3.32%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -5.16%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-01 09:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.05%EV -9.86%E -2.56%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.50%EV -6.74%E -3.60%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -6.49%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-06 08:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.05%EV -9.86%E -2.56%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.50%EV -6.74%E -3.60%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -6.49%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-06 08:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.92%EV -9.86%E -2.56%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.99%EV -6.24%E -3.32%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-06 08:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.70%EV -5.74%E -3.04%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-06 08:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.48%EV -7.24%E -3.89%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.30%EV -6.49%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.74%E -4.18%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -6.49%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-01 09:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.74%E -4.18%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -6.49%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-01 09:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.74%E -4.18%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -6.49%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-01 09:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.74%E -4.18%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -6.49%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-01 09:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.74%E -4.18%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -6.49%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-01 09:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.74%E -4.18%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -6.49%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-01 09:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.57%EV -8.24%E -4.48%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.43%EV -7.83%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.57%EV -8.24%E -4.48%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.43%EV -7.83%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.03%EV -9.23%E -5.07%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -6.49%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-06 08:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -8.73%E -4.77%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -7.83%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.11%EV -8.73%E -4.77%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.84%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-06 08:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -11.03%E -2.90%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.11%EV -8.73%E -4.77%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.84%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-06 08:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -12.20%E -3.25%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.68%EV -6.24%E -3.32%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 08:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -12.20%E -3.25%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -10.23%E -5.68%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-06 08:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -12.20%E -3.25%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.75%EV -8.73%E -4.77%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -13.17%E -4.05%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-06 08:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -12.20%E -3.25%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.37%EV -10.23%E -5.68%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -11.84%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-06 08:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -12.20%E -3.25%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.37%EV -10.23%E -5.68%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -11.84%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-06 08:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -12.20%E -3.25%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.37%EV -10.23%E -5.68%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -11.84%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-06 08:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -12.20%E -3.25%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.37%EV -10.23%E -5.68%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -11.84%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-06 08:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -13.38%E -3.61%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -7.74%E -4.18%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-06 08:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -15.72%E -4.37%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.94%EV -6.74%E -3.60%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -11.84%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-06 08:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.10% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.42% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49% | 0.7% | 2026-09-06 08:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.10% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.42% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49% | 0.7% | 2026-09-06 08:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.10% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.42% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49% | 0.7% | 2026-09-06 08:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.54% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42% | 0.9% | 2026-09-06 08:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.74% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.50% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76% | 1.0% | 2026-09-06 08:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.90% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.49% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.61% | 1.6% | 2026-09-06 08:55 |