Language:English
Cerezo Osaka v Tokyo Verdy
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cerezo Osaka (Local)
Prediction 56.91%1.76fair odd
EV -0.971%
Edge -0.558%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.61%56.83%56.80%58.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.651.631.7464.52%60.75%61.35%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tokyo Verdy (Visit)
Prediction 18.67%5.36fair odd
EV +6.41%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +1.36%
Growth +0.087%
assuming max odds 5.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.64%18.73%18.73%20.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.814.785.7022.73%20.79%20.94%17.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.42%4.10fair odd
EV -1.59%
Edge -0.396%
Kelly -0.526%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.03
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.69%24.44%24.47%25.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.723.704.0328.17%26.91%27.03%24.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cerezo Osaka (Local): 56.91%; Tokyo Verdy (Visit): 18.67%; Draw: 24.42%. For Tokyo Verdy (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.36. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.41%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.54%EV -7.80%E -4.82%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.64%EV +6.41%E +1.12%K +1.36%G +0.087% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.82%EV -6.72%E -1.76%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -7.23%E -4.44%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.93%EV -1.06%E -0.199%K -0.246%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -2.33%E -0.582%K -0.775%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -7.23%E -4.44%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.93%EV -1.06%E -0.199%K -0.246%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -2.33%E -0.582%K -0.775%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -7.23%E -4.44%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.93%EV -1.06%E -0.199%K -0.246%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -2.33%E -0.582%K -0.775%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.50%EV -10.65%E -6.78%K -18.68%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -1.06%E -0.199%K -0.246%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -7.21%E -1.90%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.80%EV -4.96%E -2.97%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 5.29I 18.90%NM 18.25%EV -1.24%E -0.235%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.95%EV -1.59%E -0.396%K -0.526%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.08%EV -4.96%E -2.97%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.16%EV -1.99%E -0.379%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.76%EV -5.99%E -1.56%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.71%EV -7.23%E -4.44%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.61%EV -1.99%E -0.379%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -12.09%E -3.36%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -7.80%E -4.82%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.33%EV -4.79%E -0.939%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -4.77%E -1.22%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-06 09:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.92%EV -8.37%E -5.20%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.29%EV -4.79%E -0.939%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 23.79%EV -4.28%E -1.09%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.04%EV -6.09%E -3.69%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -4.77%E -1.22%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -4.96%E -2.97%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -8.43%E -2.25%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-06 09:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.68%EV -6.09%E -3.69%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -7.21%E -1.90%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-06 09:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.68%EV -6.09%E -3.69%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -7.21%E -1.90%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-06 09:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.91%EV -8.37%E -5.20%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -9.65%E -2.61%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.20%EV -6.09%E -3.69%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.73%EV -7.59%E -1.53%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -9.65%E -2.61%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-06 09:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -5.52%E -3.33%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -8.52%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -7.21%E -1.90%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.55%EV -7.80%E -4.82%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -8.52%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -9.65%E -2.61%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.36%EV -7.80%E -4.82%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.63%EV -8.52%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.01%EV -10.87%E -2.98%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-06 09:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.85%EV -8.94%E -5.59%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.56%EV -8.52%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -9.65%E -2.61%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-06 09:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.63%EV -11.78%E -7.60%K -21.43%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.23%EV -8.52%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -9.65%E -2.61%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-06 09:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.33%EV -7.80%E -4.82%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%EV -10.39%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.66%EV -9.65%E -2.61%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.48%EV -8.37%E -5.20%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -10.39%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -9.65%E -2.61%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.48%EV -8.37%E -5.20%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -10.39%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -9.65%E -2.61%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.94%EV -7.80%E -4.82%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.88%EV -10.39%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -12.09%E -3.36%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -4.96%E -2.97%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -11.32%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -7.21%E -1.90%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 09:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.40%EV -7.80%E -4.82%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -11.32%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -8.43%E -2.25%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.35%EV -10.65%E -6.78%K -18.68%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -11.32%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -7.21%E -1.90%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.35%EV -10.65%E -6.78%K -18.68%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -11.32%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -7.21%E -1.90%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.77%EV -8.94%E -5.59%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -12.26%E -2.61%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -7.21%E -1.90%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-06 09:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.49%EV -7.80%E -4.82%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -14.12%E -3.07%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -12.09%E -3.36%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-06 09:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.49%EV -7.80%E -4.82%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -14.12%E -3.07%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -12.09%E -3.36%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-06 09:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.64%EV -8.37%E -5.20%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -14.12%E -3.07%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.88%EV -12.09%E -3.36%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-06 09:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.64%EV -8.37%E -5.20%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -14.12%E -3.07%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.88%EV -12.09%E -3.36%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-06 09:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 56.48%EV -10.08%E -6.38%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.40%EV -14.12%E -3.07%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.12%EV -9.65%E -2.61%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-06 09:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.26%EV -10.65%E -6.78%K -18.68%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.20%EV -14.12%E -3.07%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%EV -12.09%E -3.36%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.67%EV -0.971%E -0.558%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -15.99%E -3.55%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -10.87%E -2.98%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 09:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.67%EV -0.971%E -0.558%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -15.99%E -3.55%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -10.87%E -2.98%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 09:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -2.11%E -1.23%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -15.99%E -3.55%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -12.09%E -3.36%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-06 09:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -2.11%E -1.23%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -15.99%E -3.55%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -12.09%E -3.36%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-06 09:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -15.99%E -3.55%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -12.09%E -3.36%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-06 09:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -15.99%E -3.55%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -12.09%E -3.36%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-06 09:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -15.99%E -3.55%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -12.09%E -3.36%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-06 09:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -15.99%E -3.55%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -12.09%E -3.36%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-06 09:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -15.99%E -3.55%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -12.09%E -3.36%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-06 09:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -15.99%E -3.55%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -12.09%E -3.36%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-06 09:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -15.99%E -3.55%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -12.09%E -3.36%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-06 09:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.61%EV -3.25%E -1.91%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.71%EV -17.86%E -4.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -13.31%E -3.75%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-06 09:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.61%EV -3.25%E -1.91%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.71%EV -17.86%E -4.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -13.31%E -3.75%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-06 09:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.61%EV -3.25%E -1.91%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.71%EV -17.86%E -4.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -13.31%E -3.75%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-06 09:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 58.08% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.97% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.96% | 0.1% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.69% | 0.5% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.69% | 0.5% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.20% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.67% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13% | 1.1% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.20% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.67% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13% | 1.1% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.77% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.97% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26% | 3.0% | 2026-09-06 09:55 |