Language:English
US Catanzaro 1929 v Palermo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
US Catanzaro 1929 (Local)
Prediction 38.57%2.59fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -0.951%
Kelly -1.57%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.20%38.65%38.55%39.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.362.372.5345.45%42.32%42.28%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Palermo (Visit)
Prediction 30.88%3.24fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -0.862%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.68%30.84%30.82%31.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.003.003.1537.04%33.34%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.54%3.27fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -0.709%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.41%30.52%30.64%31.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.993.003.2036.36%33.44%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: US Catanzaro 1929 (Local): 38.57%; Palermo (Visit): 30.88%; Draw: 30.54%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -2.27%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -2.41%E -0.951%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.76%EV -2.71%E -0.862%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.95%EV -4.41%E -1.41%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-17 17:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -3.56%E -1.43%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.71%EV -3.02%E -0.963%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.71%EV -4.10%E -1.31%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-17 17:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.37%EV -5.11%E -2.08%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.96%EV -2.71%E -0.862%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.67%EV -8.99%E -3.02%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-17 17:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.37%EV -5.11%E -2.08%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.96%EV -2.71%E -0.862%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.67%EV -8.99%E -3.02%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-17 17:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.49%E -2.24%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -4.26%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -5.32%E -1.72%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 17:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.73%EV -5.49%E -2.24%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -2.27%E -0.709%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-17 17:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -5.49%E -2.24%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -5.80%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -6.85%E -2.25%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-17 17:41 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -5.49%E -2.24%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -5.80%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -6.85%E -2.25%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-17 17:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -5.49%E -2.24%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -4.26%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-17 17:41 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.97%EV -6.26%E -2.58%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.28%EV -9.90%E -3.36%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-17 17:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.07%EV -6.65%E -2.75%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -9.90%E -3.36%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-17 17:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -7.42%E -3.09%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -2.27%E -0.709%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-17 17:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -7.42%E -3.09%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -8.89%E -3.01%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -5.32%E -1.72%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-17 17:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -7.42%E -3.09%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -8.89%E -3.01%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -5.32%E -1.72%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-17 17:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.42%E -3.09%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 17:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.42%E -3.09%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 17:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -7.42%E -3.09%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -11.05%E -3.84%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -5.32%E -1.72%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-17 17:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.25%EV -7.42%E -3.09%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -10.44%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -6.85%E -2.25%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-17 17:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.42%E -3.09%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -11.43%E -3.94%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-17 17:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.42%E -3.09%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -11.43%E -3.94%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-17 17:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.42%E -3.09%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -11.43%E -3.94%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-17 17:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.42%E -3.09%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -11.43%E -3.94%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-17 17:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.93%EV -7.42%E -3.09%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.72%EV -12.35%E -4.30%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-17 17:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.85%EV -7.42%E -3.09%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -11.98%E -4.20%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-17 17:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.17%EV -8.19%E -3.44%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.54%EV -12.04%E -4.18%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-17 17:39 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -8.19%E -3.44%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -10.44%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -14.48%E -5.17%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-17 17:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -9.35%E -3.98%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -5.32%E -1.72%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-17 17:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.75%EV -9.35%E -3.98%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -10.44%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.85%EV -6.85%E -2.25%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-17 17:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.75%EV -10.12%E -4.34%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -4.26%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.37%EV -6.85%E -2.25%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.75%EV -10.12%E -4.34%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -4.26%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.37%EV -6.85%E -2.25%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.75%EV -10.12%E -4.34%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -4.26%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.37%EV -6.85%E -2.25%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -10.51%E -4.53%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -4.26%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -10.51%E -4.53%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -4.26%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -10.51%E -4.53%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -4.26%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -10.51%E -4.53%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -4.26%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -10.51%E -4.53%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -4.26%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -10.51%E -4.53%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -4.26%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -10.51%E -4.53%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -4.26%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.67%EV -11.28%E -4.90%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.92%EV -5.80%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -11.28%E -4.90%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -5.80%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.77%EV -9.90%E -3.36%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -11.28%E -4.90%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -5.80%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.77%EV -9.90%E -3.36%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -11.28%E -4.90%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.44%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-17 17:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -11.28%E -4.90%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.44%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-17 17:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -11.28%E -4.90%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.44%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-17 17:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.87%EV -11.28%E -4.90%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 30.62%EV -9.82%E -3.36%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 30.51%EV -10.51%E -3.59%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-17 17:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.25%EV -11.28%E -4.90%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.42%EV -13.52%E -4.83%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.33%EV -11.43%E -3.94%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-17 17:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.20%EV -11.28%E -4.90%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 31.69%EV -16.61%E -6.15%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.11%EV -16.01%E -5.82%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-05-17 17:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.48%EV -12.05%E -5.29%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.51%EV -9.90%E -3.36%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 38.36%EV -12.44%E -5.48%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.55%EV -11.98%E -4.20%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.10%EV -14.48%E -5.17%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-05-17 17:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.97%EV -13.21%E -5.87%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.31%EV -13.52%E -4.83%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.72%EV -9.90%E -3.36%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-05-17 17:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 39.52%EV -13.98%E -6.27%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.88%EV -8.89%E -3.01%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.60%EV -12.04%E -4.18%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.73%EV -15.14%E -6.88%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.14%EV -10.44%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.14%EV -11.43%E -3.94%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-05-17 17:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.27% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.35% | 1.3% | 2026-05-17 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.27% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.35% | 1.3% | 2026-05-17 17:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.27% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.35% | 1.3% | 2026-05-17 17:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.27% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.35% | 1.3% | 2026-05-17 17:41 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.46% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.29% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.25% | 1.6% | 2026-05-17 17:50 |