Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 3.38
assuming max odds 2.60
assuming max odds 3.10
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Südtirol (Local): 29.92%; Modena (Visit): 38.52%; Draw: 31.55%. For Südtirol (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.34. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.14%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.20%EV +1.14%E +0.337%K +0.479%G +0.005% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.69%E -1.48%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.68%EV -10.70%E -3.78%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-09 10:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.51%EV -2.75%E -0.846%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 37.67%EV -5.23%E -2.13%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 33.82%EV -13.54%E -4.94%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-09 09:03 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.51%EV -2.75%E -0.846%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 37.67%EV -5.23%E -2.13%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 33.82%EV -13.54%E -4.94%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-09 09:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -2.75%E -0.846%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -11.65%E -4.16%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-09 09:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.17%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.54%EV -6.39%E -2.63%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.29%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-09 17:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.80%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.93%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.27%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-09 14:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-09 04:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-09 09:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -10.07%E -3.53%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 13:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.14%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.70%EV -7.16%E -2.97%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 17:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -5.74%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-09 13:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -5.74%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-09 13:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -7.24%E -2.33%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -2.18%E -0.704%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-08 23:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -7.24%E -2.33%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -1.77%E -0.693%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -9.13%E -3.17%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-09 13:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -7.24%E -2.33%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -3.69%E -1.48%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -13.23%E -4.81%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-09 13:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -7.24%E -2.33%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -8.31%E -3.49%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -10.07%E -3.53%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-09 04:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -7.24%E -2.33%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -8.31%E -3.49%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -10.07%E -3.53%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-09 04:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 29.55%EV -9.63%E -3.19%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.14%EV -12.17%E -5.34%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.31%EV -10.07%E -3.53%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-09 04:13 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -8.31%E -3.49%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -2.18%E -0.704%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-08 14:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-08 15:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-08 15:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -3.69%E -1.48%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -10.07%E -3.53%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-08 11:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.26%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -6.92%E -2.34%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-09 16:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -2.18%E -0.704%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-09 09:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -2.18%E -0.704%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-09 09:28 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -11.65%E -4.16%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-08 10:58 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -11.65%E -4.16%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-08 11:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -13.23%E -4.81%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-08 23:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.85%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.25%EV -17.18%E -7.99%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.91%EV -11.65%E -4.16%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-09-09 04:14 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.97I 33.67%NM 29.24%EV -11.13%E -3.75%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.60%EV -13.32%E -5.92%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.16%EV -14.80%E -5.48%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-09-09 09:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.30%EV -11.73%E -3.98%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.87%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-09 04:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-09 05:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-09 05:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-09 05:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-09 05:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.16%EV -9.47%E -4.03%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-08 15:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-08 14:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-08 14:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-08 14:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -13.23%E -4.81%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-09 13:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.98%EV -13.32%E -5.92%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.77%EV -10.07%E -3.53%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-09 04:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.62%EV -14.72%E -5.16%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.35%EV -9.47%E -4.03%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-09 06:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-08 00:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-08 00:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-08 00:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-08 00:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-08 00:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-08 00:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-08 00:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-08 00:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-08 00:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.29%EV -19.21%E -7.11%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.24%EV -4.46%E -1.80%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.47%EV -6.92%E -2.34%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-08 00:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -19.21%E -7.11%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-08 00:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.38%EV -20.70%E -7.81%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.11%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.51%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-09-08 00:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.38%EV -20.70%E -7.81%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.11%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.51%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-09-08 00:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 33.53%EV -23.70%E -9.29%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 35.93%EV -8.31%E -3.49%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.54%EV -11.65%E -4.16%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-09-08 00:05 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.74% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.51% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.75% | 3.9% | 2026-09-09 17:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.59% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.76% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 16:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.59% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.76% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 16:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.59% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.76% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 16:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.52% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.66% | 8.2% | 2026-09-09 17:11 |