Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Südtirol v Modena

Início: 2026-09-12 13:02 UTC

Final: Südtirol 1–1 Modena

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Südtirol (Local)

Previsão 29.92%3.34odd justa
EV +1.14%
Vantagem +0.337%
Kelly +0.479%
Crescimento +0.005%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.38

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.20%29.98%29.84%33.53%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.552.973.003.3839.22%33.66%33.33%29.59%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Modena (Visitante)

Previsão 38.52%2.60odd justa
EV +0.160%
Vantagem +0.062%
Kelly +0.100%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
35.93%38.35%38.64%40.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.152.432.412.6046.51%41.22%41.58%38.46%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 31.55%3.17odd justa
EV -2.18%
Vantagem -0.704%
Kelly -1.04%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
29.58%31.67%31.52%33.82%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.702.922.903.1037.04%34.26%34.48%32.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Südtirol (Local): 29.92%; Modena (Visitante): 38.52%; Empate: 31.55%. Para Südtirol (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.34. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.38, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.14%.

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 28.20%EV +1.14%E +0.337%K +0.479%G +0.005%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.69%E -1.48%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.68%EV -10.70%E -3.78%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 10:40
BetOnline.ag🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.51%EV -2.75%E -0.846%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.67%EV -5.23%E -2.13%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.82%EV -13.54%E -4.94%K -7.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 09:03
LowVig.ag🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.51%EV -2.75%E -0.846%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.67%EV -5.23%E -2.13%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.82%EV -13.54%E -4.94%K -7.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 09:04
Betway🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -2.75%E -0.846%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -11.65%E -4.16%K -6.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 09:05
1xBet🎯3.21I 31.15%NM 29.17%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.54%EV -6.39%E -2.63%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.29%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 17:35
Codere (IT)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.80%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.93%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.27%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 14:30
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 04:15
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 09:09
DraftKings🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -10.07%E -3.53%K -5.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 13:40
Marathon Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.14%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.70%EV -7.16%E -2.97%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 17:30
Bovada🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -5.74%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 13:40
BetUS🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -5.74%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 13:45
Coolbet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -7.24%E -2.33%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -2.18%E -0.704%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 23:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -7.24%E -2.33%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -1.77%E -0.693%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -9.13%E -3.17%K -4.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 13:00
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -7.24%E -2.33%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -3.69%E -1.48%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -13.23%E -4.81%K -7.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 13:04
NordicBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -7.24%E -2.33%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -8.31%E -3.49%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -10.07%E -3.53%K -5.44%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 04:14
Betsson🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -7.24%E -2.33%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -8.31%E -3.49%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -10.07%E -3.53%K -5.44%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 04:14
Betclic (FR)🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 29.55%EV -9.63%E -3.19%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.14%EV -12.17%E -5.34%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.31%EV -10.07%E -3.53%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 04:13
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -8.31%E -3.49%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -2.18%E -0.704%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-08 14:35
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 15:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 15:05
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -3.69%E -1.48%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -10.07%E -3.53%K -5.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-08 11:54
Bet Right🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.26%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -6.92%E -2.34%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 16:00
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -2.18%E -0.704%K -1.04%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 09:29
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -2.18%E -0.704%K -1.04%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 09:28
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -11.65%E -4.16%K -6.47%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-08 10:58
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -11.65%E -4.16%K -6.47%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-08 11:54
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -13.23%E -4.81%K -7.56%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-08 23:19
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.85%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.25%EV -17.18%E -7.99%K -14.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.91%EV -11.65%E -4.16%K -6.47%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-09 04:14
NetBet (FR)🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 29.24%EV -11.13%E -3.75%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.60%EV -13.32%E -5.92%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.16%EV -14.80%E -5.48%K -8.71%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-09 09:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.30%EV -11.73%E -3.98%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.87%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-09 04:14
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 05:55
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 05:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 05:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 05:55
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.16%EV -9.47%E -4.03%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-08 15:05
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-08 14:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-08 14:35
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-08 14:40
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -13.23%E -4.81%K -7.56%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-09 13:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.98%EV -13.32%E -5.92%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.77%EV -10.07%E -3.53%K -5.44%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-09 04:15
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.62%EV -14.72%E -5.16%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.35%EV -9.47%E -4.03%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-09 06:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 00:05
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 00:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 00:04
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 00:04
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 00:05
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 00:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 00:05
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 00:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 00:04
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.29%EV -19.21%E -7.11%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.24%EV -4.46%E -1.80%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.47%EV -6.92%E -2.34%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-08 00:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -19.21%E -7.11%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-08 00:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.38%EV -20.70%E -7.81%K -12.55%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.11%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.51%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-08 00:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.38%EV -20.70%E -7.81%K -12.55%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.11%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.51%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-08 00:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.53%EV -23.70%E -9.29%K -15.29%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 35.93%EV -8.31%E -3.49%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.54%EV -11.65%E -4.16%K -6.47%G +0.000%16.9%2026-09-08 00:05
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎3.35I 29.85%NM 28.74%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.51%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.75%3.9%2026-09-09 17:11
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.59%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.76%7.1%2026-09-09 16:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.59%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.76%7.1%2026-09-09 16:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.59%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.76%7.1%2026-09-09 16:50
Smarkets◎3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.52%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.66%8.2%2026-09-09 17:11