Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Südtirol v Modena

Inicio: 2026-09-12 13:02 UTC

Final: Südtirol 1–1 Modena

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Südtirol (Local)

Predicción 29.92%3.34momio equitativo
EV +1.14%
Ventaja +0.337%
Kelly +0.479%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.20%29.98%29.84%33.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.552.973.003.3839.22%33.66%33.33%29.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Modena (Visitante)

Predicción 38.52%2.60momio equitativo
EV +0.160%
Ventaja +0.062%
Kelly +0.100%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.93%38.35%38.64%40.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.432.412.6046.51%41.22%41.58%38.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 31.55%3.17momio equitativo
EV -2.18%
Ventaja -0.704%
Kelly -1.04%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.58%31.67%31.52%33.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.922.903.1037.04%34.26%34.48%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Südtirol (Local): 29.92%; Modena (Visitante): 38.52%; Empate: 31.55%. Para Südtirol (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.34. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.38, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.14%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 28.20%EV +1.14%E +0.337%K +0.479%G +0.005%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.69%E -1.48%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.68%EV -10.70%E -3.78%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 10:40
BetOnline.ag🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.51%EV -2.75%E -0.846%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.67%EV -5.23%E -2.13%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.82%EV -13.54%E -4.94%K -7.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 09:03
LowVig.ag🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.51%EV -2.75%E -0.846%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.67%EV -5.23%E -2.13%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.82%EV -13.54%E -4.94%K -7.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 09:04
Betway🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -2.75%E -0.846%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -11.65%E -4.16%K -6.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 09:05
1xBet🎯3.21I 31.15%NM 29.17%EV -3.95%E -1.23%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.54%EV -6.39%E -2.63%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.29%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 17:35
Codere (IT)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.80%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.93%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.27%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 14:30
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 04:15
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 09:09
DraftKings🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -10.07%E -3.53%K -5.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 13:40
Marathon Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.14%EV -4.25%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.70%EV -7.16%E -2.97%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 17:30
Bovada🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -5.74%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 13:40
BetUS🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -5.74%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 13:45
Coolbet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -7.24%E -2.33%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -2.18%E -0.704%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 23:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -7.24%E -2.33%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -1.77%E -0.693%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -9.13%E -3.17%K -4.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 13:00
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -7.24%E -2.33%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -3.69%E -1.48%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -13.23%E -4.81%K -7.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 13:04
NordicBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -7.24%E -2.33%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -8.31%E -3.49%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -10.07%E -3.53%K -5.44%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 04:14
Betsson🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -7.24%E -2.33%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -8.31%E -3.49%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -10.07%E -3.53%K -5.44%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 04:14
Betclic (FR)🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 29.55%EV -9.63%E -3.19%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.14%EV -12.17%E -5.34%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.31%EV -10.07%E -3.53%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 04:13
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -8.31%E -3.49%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -2.18%E -0.704%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-08 14:35
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 15:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 15:05
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -3.69%E -1.48%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -10.07%E -3.53%K -5.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-08 11:54
Bet Right🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.26%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -6.92%E -2.34%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 16:00
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -2.18%E -0.704%K -1.04%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 09:29
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -2.18%E -0.704%K -1.04%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 09:28
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -11.65%E -4.16%K -6.47%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-08 10:58
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -11.65%E -4.16%K -6.47%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-08 11:54
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -13.23%E -4.81%K -7.56%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-08 23:19
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.85%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.25%EV -17.18%E -7.99%K -14.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.91%EV -11.65%E -4.16%K -6.47%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-09 04:14
NetBet (FR)🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 29.24%EV -11.13%E -3.75%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.60%EV -13.32%E -5.92%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.16%EV -14.80%E -5.48%K -8.71%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-09 09:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.30%EV -11.73%E -3.98%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.87%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-09 04:14
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 05:55
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 05:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 05:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 05:55
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.16%EV -9.47%E -4.03%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-08 15:05
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-08 14:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-08 14:35
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -11.40%E -4.96%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-08 14:40
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -7.54%E -3.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -13.23%E -4.81%K -7.56%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-09 13:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -13.22%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.98%EV -13.32%E -5.92%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.77%EV -10.07%E -3.53%K -5.44%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-09 04:15
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.62%EV -14.72%E -5.16%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.35%EV -9.47%E -4.03%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-09 06:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 00:05
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 00:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 00:04
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 00:04
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 00:05
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 00:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 00:05
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 00:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV +0.160%E +0.062%K +0.100%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 00:04
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.29%EV -19.21%E -7.11%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.24%EV -4.46%E -1.80%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.47%EV -6.92%E -2.34%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-08 00:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -19.21%E -7.11%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-08 00:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.38%EV -20.70%E -7.81%K -12.55%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.11%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.51%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-08 00:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.38%EV -20.70%E -7.81%K -12.55%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.11%EV -5.62%E -2.29%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.51%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-08 00:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.53%EV -23.70%E -9.29%K -15.29%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 35.93%EV -8.31%E -3.49%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.54%EV -11.65%E -4.16%K -6.47%G +0.000%16.9%2026-09-08 00:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎3.35I 29.85%NM 28.74%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.51%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.75%3.9%2026-09-09 17:11
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.59%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.76%7.1%2026-09-09 16:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.59%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.76%7.1%2026-09-09 16:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.59%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.76%7.1%2026-09-09 16:50
Smarkets◎3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.52%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.66%8.2%2026-09-09 17:11