Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Padova v Reggiana

Kickoff: 2026-04-19 15:15 UTC

Final: Padova 1–0 Reggiana

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Padova (Local)

Prediction 43.32%2.31fair odd
EV -3.39%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.13%43.32%43.17%44.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.102.102.2351.28%47.64%47.62%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Reggiana (Visit)

Prediction 26.95%3.71fair odd
EV +0.787%
Edge +0.211%
Kelly +0.287%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.55%26.90%27.13%28.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.423.453.7432.26%29.24%28.99%26.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.73%3.36fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -0.573%
Kelly -0.822%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.50%29.78%29.71%31.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.083.103.3035.71%32.43%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Padova (Local): 43.32%; Reggiana (Visit): 26.95%; Draw: 29.73%. For Reggiana (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.74, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.787%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.36%EV -3.39%E -1.52%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.85%EV +0.787%E +0.211%K +0.287%G +0.002%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.79%EV -6.65%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-19 15:05
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.86%E -3.19%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -2.99%E -0.829%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 14:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.43%EV -3.83%E -1.72%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -2.99%E -0.829%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 14:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.43%EV -3.83%E -1.72%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -2.99%E -0.829%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 14:50
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.86%E -3.19%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -2.99%E -0.829%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -7.84%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 14:34
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -2.99%E -0.829%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-19 14:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.95%EV -5.99%E -2.76%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.18%EV -4.06%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.86%EV -10.21%E -3.38%K -5.06%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-19 15:05
Bovada🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.18%EV -7.29%E -3.41%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -4.33%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 15:00
BetUS🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.18%EV -7.29%E -3.41%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -4.33%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 14:59
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.91%EV -5.99%E -2.76%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.22%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -1.89%E -0.573%K -0.822%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-19 14:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.07%EV -4.26%E -1.93%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.74%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-19 14:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.59%EV -10.76%E -5.22%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-19 14:20
TABtouch🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.59%EV -10.76%E -5.22%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-19 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.59%EV -10.76%E -5.22%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-19 14:20
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.59%EV -10.76%E -5.22%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-19 14:20
BetRivers🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.59%EV -10.76%E -5.22%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-19 14:20
Grosvenor🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.59%EV -10.76%E -5.22%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-19 14:20
Casumo🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.59%EV -10.76%E -5.22%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-19 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.59%EV -10.76%E -5.22%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-19 14:20
betPARX🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.59%EV -10.76%E -5.22%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-19 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.59%EV -10.76%E -5.22%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-19 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.83%EV -11.63%E -5.70%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.04%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-19 03:20
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-19 14:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.62%EV -11.63%E -5.70%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -7.84%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 15:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.62%EV -11.63%E -5.70%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -7.84%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 15:30
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -11.19%E -5.46%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -13.78%E -4.75%K -7.25%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-19 15:05
1xBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.39%EV -5.13%E -2.34%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.46%EV -6.76%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.15%EV -3.08%E -0.944%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-19 15:10
LeoVegas🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.95%EV -13.36%E -6.68%K -13.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -7.03%E -2.04%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -7.84%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-19 14:20
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.69%E -2.13%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.38%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-19 14:45
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.86%E -3.19%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.38%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 14:29
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.86%E -3.19%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.38%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.84%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 14:30
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.86%E -3.19%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.38%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.84%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 14:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -8.38%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-19 14:55
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -6.86%E -3.19%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -8.38%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -13.78%E -4.75%K -7.25%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-19 14:50
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -11.19%E -5.46%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -8.38%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -13.78%E -4.75%K -7.25%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-19 15:05
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.60%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -9.72%E -2.90%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.07%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-19 14:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.78%EV -11.19%E -5.46%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.79%EV -9.72%E -2.90%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.43%EV -9.32%E -3.06%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-19 14:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.80%EV -15.52%E -7.96%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.08%EV -9.72%E -2.90%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.12%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-19 14:20
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.86%E -3.19%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.84%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 14:50
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-19 14:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.42%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.95%EV -6.35%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-19 14:30
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -7.84%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 15:05
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -7.84%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 15:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -7.84%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 15:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -7.84%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 15:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -7.84%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 14:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.15%EV -10.33%E -4.99%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.78%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-19 14:47
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -11.19%E -5.46%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -13.78%E -4.75%K -7.25%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-19 14:30
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -12.42%E -3.82%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-19 15:00
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -12.42%E -3.82%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-19 14:31
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -12.42%E -3.82%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-19 14:30
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -12.42%E -3.82%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-19 14:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 42.96%EV -12.49%E -6.18%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.12%EV -13.76%E -4.30%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.92%EV -13.78%E -4.75%K -7.25%G +0.000%15.2%2026-04-19 14:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.84%EV -11.19%E -5.46%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.88%EV -15.11%E -4.80%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.28%EV -10.81%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-19 14:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.38%EV -13.36%E -6.68%K -13.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.34%EV -16.46%E -5.31%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.27%EV -16.75%E -5.98%K -9.31%G +0.000%18.0%2026-04-19 15:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.75%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.35%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.90%1.1%2026-04-19 15:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.75%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.35%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.90%1.1%2026-04-19 15:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.75%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.35%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.90%1.1%2026-04-19 15:05
Matchbook2.26I 44.25%NM 43.75%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.35%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.90%1.1%2026-04-19 15:05
Smarkets2.24I 44.64%NM 43.82%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.50%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.68%1.9%2026-04-19 15:10