Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Monza v Empoli

Kickoff: 2026-05-08 18:30 UTC

Final: Monza 2–2 Empoli

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Monza (Local)

Prediction 54.38%1.84fair odd
EV -3.74%
Edge -2.11%
Kelly -4.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.54%54.47%54.39%57.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.671.681.7764.94%59.90%59.52%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Empoli (Visit)

Prediction 21.11%4.74fair odd
EV +1.31%
Edge +0.274%
Kelly +0.346%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.05%21.00%21.15%22.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.444.404.8025.32%22.51%22.73%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.51%4.08fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.489%
Kelly -0.653%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.40%24.53%24.46%26.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.753.804.0030.77%26.68%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Monza (Local): 54.38%; Empoli (Visit): 21.11%; Draw: 24.51%. For Empoli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.74. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.25%EV -3.74%E -2.11%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.01%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.74%EV -8.58%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-08 18:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.07%EV -11.36%E -6.97%K -18.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -3.18%E -0.806%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-06 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.07%EV -11.36%E -6.97%K -18.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -3.18%E -0.806%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-06 15:15
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.22%EV -11.90%E -7.35%K -19.19%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.31%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -3.18%E -0.806%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 17:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.20%EV -12.44%E -7.73%K -20.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:34
Unibet (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.20%EV -12.44%E -7.73%K -20.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:34
Casumo🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.20%EV -12.44%E -7.73%K -20.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:34
Grosvenor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.20%EV -12.44%E -7.73%K -20.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:34
Unibet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.20%EV -12.44%E -7.73%K -20.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:34
TABtouch🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.20%EV -12.44%E -7.73%K -20.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:34
betPARX🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.20%EV -12.44%E -7.73%K -20.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.24%EV -12.99%E -8.12%K -21.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.28%EV +0.259%E +0.055%K +0.069%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-08 17:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.37%EV -14.08%E -8.91%K -24.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.08%EV +0.259%E +0.055%K +0.069%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -5.63%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-08 17:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.37%EV -14.08%E -8.91%K -24.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.08%EV +0.259%E +0.055%K +0.069%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -5.63%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-08 17:34
LeoVegas🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.39%EV -15.16%E -9.72%K -27.08%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.05%EV -0.796%E -0.169%K -0.215%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-08 17:34
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.18%EV -8.09%E -4.79%K -11.73%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -2.91%E -0.632%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-08 18:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.86%EV -7.55%E -4.44%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -2.91%E -0.632%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -8.09%E -2.16%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-08 18:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.20%EV -6.46%E -3.76%K -8.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -2.91%E -0.632%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -10.54%E -2.89%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 18:14
LowVig.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.20%EV -6.46%E -3.76%K -8.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -2.91%E -0.632%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -10.54%E -2.89%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 18:15
BetUS🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.20%EV -6.46%E -3.76%K -8.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -2.91%E -0.632%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -10.54%E -2.89%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 18:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -10.27%E -6.22%K -15.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -2.91%E -0.632%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 18:04
PMU (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.29%EV -16.25%E -10.55%K -30.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.18%EV -2.91%E -0.632%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.53%EV -8.09%E -2.16%K -2.94%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-08 17:34
Bovada🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.84%EV -7.01%E -4.10%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.23%EV -3.96%E -0.871%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.93%EV -12.99%E -3.66%K -5.09%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 18:24
Codere (IT)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.73%EV -5.37%E -3.09%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -5.02%E -1.12%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.11%EV -3.18%E -0.806%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 18:20
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.25%EV -4.83%E -2.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.10%EV -5.02%E -1.12%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -5.63%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 18:14
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.33%EV -7.01%E -4.10%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -5.02%E -1.12%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -1.96%E -0.489%K -0.653%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-08 17:25
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -5.37%E -3.09%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -5.02%E -1.12%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 18:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.44%EV -5.92%E -3.42%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -7.13%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 18:14
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -7.55%E -4.44%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -7.13%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-08 18:14
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -7.55%E -4.44%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -7.13%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-08 18:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -7.55%E -4.44%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -7.13%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-08 18:14
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -7.55%E -4.44%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -7.13%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-08 18:14
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.77%EV -9.73%E -5.86%K -14.74%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -7.13%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.57%EV -9.31%E -2.52%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-08 18:19
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.40%EV -7.55%E -4.44%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -8.18%E -1.88%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 18:14
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.40%EV -7.55%E -4.44%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -8.18%E -1.88%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 18:14
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -4.83%E -2.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -8.61%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-08 18:24
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.20%EV -7.01%E -4.10%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -8.61%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 17:45
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.20%EV -7.01%E -4.10%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -8.61%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 18:15
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.62%EV -7.55%E -4.44%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.05%EV -8.61%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-08 18:24
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.07%EV -9.18%E -5.50%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.85%EV -8.61%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.08%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 18:20
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.69%EV -3.74%E -2.11%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.25%EV -9.87%E -2.31%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.06%EV -3.18%E -0.806%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-08 18:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.99%EV -7.01%E -4.10%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -10.29%E -2.42%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 18:14
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.96%EV -7.55%E -4.44%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.58%EV -10.29%E -2.42%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -8.09%E -2.16%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-08 18:14
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -7.55%E -4.44%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -11.35%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -8.09%E -2.16%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-08 18:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.94%EV -8.64%E -5.14%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -11.35%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -9.31%E -2.52%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-08 18:14
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.61%EV -6.46%E -3.76%K -8.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -11.35%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -14.21%E -4.06%K -5.69%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-08 18:14
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.34%EV -9.18%E -5.50%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -11.35%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -14.21%E -4.06%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-08 18:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.32%EV -10.81%E -6.59%K -16.90%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.47%EV -12.41%E -2.99%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.21%EV -9.80%E -2.66%K -3.66%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-08 18:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.33%EV -8.64%E -5.14%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -13.46%E -3.28%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-08 18:14
NetBet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.32%EV -12.99%E -8.12%K -21.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.20%EV -13.46%E -3.28%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.48%EV -12.99%E -3.66%K -5.09%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-08 18:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 54.02%EV -12.44%E -7.73%K -20.40%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.48%EV -14.52%E -3.58%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.50%EV -12.99%E -3.66%K -5.09%G +0.000%15.0%2026-05-08 18:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -9.18%E -5.50%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -15.57%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-08 17:44
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -9.18%E -5.50%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -15.57%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-08 17:44
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -9.18%E -5.50%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -15.57%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-08 17:44
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -9.18%E -5.50%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -15.57%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-08 18:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 52.54%EV -11.90%E -7.35%K -19.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.28%EV -15.57%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.19%EV -20.34%E -6.26%K -9.04%G +0.000%17.5%2026-05-08 18:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.11%EV -11.90%E -7.35%K -19.19%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.19%EV -16.63%E -4.21%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.69%EV -9.31%E -2.52%K -3.45%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-08 18:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.80I 55.56%NM 55.36%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.34%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.30%0.4%2026-05-08 18:20
Smarkets1.79I 55.87%NM 55.16%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.15%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.69%1.3%2026-05-08 18:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 54.79%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.66%1.4%2026-05-08 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 54.79%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.66%1.4%2026-05-08 18:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.80I 55.56%NM 54.79%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.66%1.4%2026-05-08 18:25