La escuela de los momios

Monza v Empoli

Inicio: 2026-05-08 18:30 UTC

Final: Monza 2–2 Empoli

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Monza (Local)

Predicción 54.38%1.84momio equitativo
EV -3.74%
Ventaja -2.11%
Kelly -4.86%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.77

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.54%54.47%54.39%57.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.541.671.681.7764.94%59.90%59.52%56.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empoli (Visitante)

Predicción 21.11%4.74momio equitativo
EV +1.31%
Ventaja +0.274%
Kelly +0.346%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.05%21.00%21.15%22.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.954.444.404.8025.32%22.51%22.73%20.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.51%4.08momio equitativo
EV -1.96%
Ventaja -0.489%
Kelly -0.653%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.40%24.53%24.46%26.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.253.753.804.0030.77%26.68%26.32%25.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.77I 56.50%NM 54.25%EV -3.74%E -2.11%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.01%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.74%EV -8.58%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-08 18:20
ATG (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 57.07%EV -11.36%E -6.97%K -18.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -3.18%E -0.806%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-06 15:15
Svenska Spel1.63I 61.35%NM 57.07%EV -11.36%E -6.97%K -18.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -3.18%E -0.806%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-06 15:15
BetRivers1.62I 61.73%NM 57.22%EV -11.90%E -7.35%K -19.19%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.31%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -3.18%E -0.806%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 17:34
Unibet (NL)1.61I 62.11%NM 57.20%EV -12.44%E -7.73%K -20.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:34
Unibet (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 57.20%EV -12.44%E -7.73%K -20.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:34
Casumo1.61I 62.11%NM 57.20%EV -12.44%E -7.73%K -20.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:34
Grosvenor1.61I 62.11%NM 57.20%EV -12.44%E -7.73%K -20.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:34
Unibet1.61I 62.11%NM 57.20%EV -12.44%E -7.73%K -20.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:34
TABtouch1.61I 62.11%NM 57.20%EV -12.44%E -7.73%K -20.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:34
betPARX1.61I 62.11%NM 57.20%EV -12.44%E -7.73%K -20.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV +1.31%E +0.274%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:34
LeoVegas (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.24%EV -12.99%E -8.12%K -21.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.28%EV +0.259%E +0.055%K +0.069%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-08 17:34
LiveScore Bet1.58I 63.29%NM 57.37%EV -14.08%E -8.91%K -24.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.08%EV +0.259%E +0.055%K +0.069%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -5.63%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-08 17:34
Virgin Bet1.58I 63.29%NM 57.37%EV -14.08%E -8.91%K -24.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.08%EV +0.259%E +0.055%K +0.069%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -5.63%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-08 17:34
LeoVegas1.56I 64.10%NM 57.39%EV -15.16%E -9.72%K -27.08%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.05%EV -0.796%E -0.169%K -0.215%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-08 17:34
FanDuel1.69I 59.17%NM 55.18%EV -8.09%E -4.79%K -11.73%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -2.91%E -0.632%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-08 18:19
Marathon Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.86%EV -7.55%E -4.44%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -2.91%E -0.632%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -8.09%E -2.16%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-08 18:14
BetOnline.ag1.72I 58.14%NM 54.20%EV -6.46%E -3.76%K -8.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -2.91%E -0.632%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -10.54%E -2.89%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 18:14
LowVig.ag1.72I 58.14%NM 54.20%EV -6.46%E -3.76%K -8.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -2.91%E -0.632%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -10.54%E -2.89%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 18:15
BetUS1.72I 58.14%NM 54.20%EV -6.46%E -3.76%K -8.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -2.91%E -0.632%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -10.54%E -2.89%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 18:15
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -10.27%E -6.22%K -15.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -2.91%E -0.632%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 18:04
PMU (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 57.29%EV -16.25%E -10.55%K -30.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.18%EV -2.91%E -0.632%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.53%EV -8.09%E -2.16%K -2.94%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-08 17:34
Bovada1.71I 58.48%NM 53.84%EV -7.01%E -4.10%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.23%EV -3.96%E -0.871%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.93%EV -12.99%E -3.66%K -5.09%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 18:24
Codere (IT)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.73%EV -5.37%E -3.09%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -5.02%E -1.12%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.11%EV -3.18%E -0.806%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 18:20
Coolbet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.25%EV -4.83%E -2.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.10%EV -5.02%E -1.12%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -5.63%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 18:14
Fanatics1.71I 58.48%NM 55.33%EV -7.01%E -4.10%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -5.02%E -1.12%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -1.96%E -0.489%K -0.653%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-08 17:25
DraftKings1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -5.37%E -3.09%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -5.02%E -1.12%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 18:25
Unibet (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.44%EV -5.92%E -3.42%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -7.13%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 18:14
888sport1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -7.55%E -4.44%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -7.13%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-08 18:14
888sport (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -7.55%E -4.44%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -7.13%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-08 18:14
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -7.55%E -4.44%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -7.13%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-08 18:14
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -7.55%E -4.44%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -7.13%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-08 18:14
SportsBet1.66I 60.24%NM 54.77%EV -9.73%E -5.86%K -14.74%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -7.13%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.57%EV -9.31%E -2.52%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-08 18:19
NordicBet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.40%EV -7.55%E -4.44%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -8.18%E -1.88%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 18:14
Betsson1.70I 58.82%NM 54.40%EV -7.55%E -4.44%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -8.18%E -1.88%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 18:14
Betway1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -4.83%E -2.76%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -8.61%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-08 18:24
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 54.20%EV -7.01%E -4.10%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -8.61%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 17:45
theScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 54.20%EV -7.01%E -4.10%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -8.61%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 18:15
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 53.62%EV -7.55%E -4.44%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.05%EV -8.61%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-08 18:24
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 54.07%EV -9.18%E -5.50%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.85%EV -8.61%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.08%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 18:20
1xBet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.69%EV -3.74%E -2.11%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.25%EV -9.87%E -2.31%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.06%EV -3.18%E -0.806%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-08 18:24
PointsBet (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 53.99%EV -7.01%E -4.10%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -10.29%E -2.42%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 18:14
Bet Right1.70I 58.82%NM 53.96%EV -7.55%E -4.44%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.58%EV -10.29%E -2.42%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -8.09%E -2.16%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-08 18:14
betfred_uk1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -7.55%E -4.44%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -11.35%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -8.09%E -2.16%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-08 18:14
Betr (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 53.94%EV -8.64%E -5.14%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -11.35%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -9.31%E -2.52%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-08 18:14
PlayUp1.72I 58.14%NM 52.61%EV -6.46%E -3.76%K -8.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -11.35%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -14.21%E -4.06%K -5.69%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-08 18:14
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 53.34%EV -9.18%E -5.50%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -11.35%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -14.21%E -4.06%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-08 18:20
Betclic (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 54.32%EV -10.81%E -6.59%K -16.90%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.47%EV -12.41%E -2.99%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.21%EV -9.80%E -2.66%K -3.66%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-08 18:15
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.33%EV -8.64%E -5.14%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -13.46%E -3.28%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-08 18:14
NetBet (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 54.32%EV -12.99%E -8.12%K -21.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.20%EV -13.46%E -3.28%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.48%EV -12.99%E -3.66%K -5.09%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-08 18:24
Unibet (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 54.02%EV -12.44%E -7.73%K -20.40%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.48%EV -14.52%E -3.58%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.50%EV -12.99%E -3.66%K -5.09%G +0.000%15.0%2026-05-08 18:19
Ladbrokes (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -9.18%E -5.50%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -15.57%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-08 17:44
Coral1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -9.18%E -5.50%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -15.57%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-08 17:44
Neds1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -9.18%E -5.50%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -15.57%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-08 17:44
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -9.18%E -5.50%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -15.57%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-08 18:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 52.54%EV -11.90%E -7.35%K -19.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.28%EV -15.57%E -3.89%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.19%EV -20.34%E -6.26%K -9.04%G +0.000%17.5%2026-05-08 18:20
Winamax (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 54.11%EV -11.90%E -7.35%K -19.19%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.19%EV -16.63%E -4.21%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.69%EV -9.31%E -2.52%K -3.45%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-08 18:14
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.80I 55.56%NM 55.36%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.34%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.30%0.4%2026-05-08 18:20
Smarkets1.79I 55.87%NM 55.16%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.15%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.69%1.3%2026-05-08 18:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 54.79%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.66%1.4%2026-05-08 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 54.79%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.66%1.4%2026-05-08 18:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.80I 55.56%NM 54.79%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.66%1.4%2026-05-08 18:25