Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Monza v Bari

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 17:30 UTC

Final: Monza 2–0 Bari

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Monza (Local)

Prediction 72.78%1.37fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -2.98%
Kelly -12.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.16%72.60%72.89%74.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.281.291.3284.03%78.11%77.52%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bari (Visit)

Prediction 9.68%10.33fair odd
EV +13.39%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +1.25%
Growth +0.167%

assuming max odds 11.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.24%9.72%9.63%11.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.759.119.0011.7112.90%10.97%11.11%8.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.54%5.70fair odd
EV +1.72%
Edge +0.297%
Kelly +0.359%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 5.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.43%17.67%17.49%19.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.025.005.8022.22%19.90%20.00%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Monza (Local): 72.78%; Bari (Visit): 9.68%; Draw: 17.54%. For Bari (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.33. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.71, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.39%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.76%EV -6.12%E -4.74%K -21.09%G +0.000%11.71I 8.54%NM 8.24%EV +13.39%E +1.14%K +1.25%G +0.167%5.67I 17.64%NM 17.01%EV -0.556%E -0.098%K -0.119%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-11 17:15
Coolbet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.22%EV -5.39%E -4.14%K -17.96%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +6.51%E +0.592%K +0.651%G +0.042%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -7.92%E -1.51%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 17:15
SportsBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.52%EV -11.21%E -9.19%K -50.95%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.54%EV +1.67%E +0.159%K +0.176%G +0.003%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -12.31%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-11 17:15
1xBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.32%EV -5.39%E -4.14%K -17.96%G +0.000%10.10I 9.90%NM 9.44%EV -2.20%E -0.218%K -0.242%G +0.000%5.53I 18.08%NM 17.24%EV -3.01%E -0.545%K -0.665%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 17:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.34%EV -6.12%E -4.74%K -21.09%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -3.17%E -0.317%K -0.352%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -3.54%E -0.643%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-11 17:24
DraftKings🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.34%EV -6.12%E -4.74%K -21.09%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -3.17%E -0.317%K -0.352%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -3.54%E -0.643%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-11 17:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -6.12%E -4.74%K -21.09%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -3.17%E -0.317%K -0.352%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -12.31%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 17:20
BetUS🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.21%EV -8.30%E -6.59%K -31.92%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -3.17%E -0.317%K -0.352%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.57%EV -7.92%E -1.51%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-11 17:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.48%EV -9.03%E -7.22%K -36.11%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -3.17%E -0.317%K -0.352%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -7.05%E -1.33%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 17:10
Bet Victor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.36%EV -9.03%E -7.22%K -36.11%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -3.17%E -0.317%K -0.352%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.47%EV -7.92%E -1.51%K -1.86%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 17:23
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.40%EV -9.75%E -7.87%K -40.64%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.10%EV -3.17%E -0.317%K -0.352%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.50%EV -8.80%E -1.69%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 17:15
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.52%EV -11.21%E -9.19%K -50.95%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.85%EV -3.17%E -0.317%K -0.352%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.63%EV -16.69%E -3.51%K -4.45%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-11 17:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.85%EV -6.12%E -4.74%K -21.09%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.72%EV -5.11%E -0.521%K -0.581%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +1.72%E +0.297%K +0.359%G +0.006%5.0%2026-04-11 17:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.88%EV -6.84%E -5.35%K -24.44%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.52%EV -5.11%E -0.521%K -0.581%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -7.05%E -1.33%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 17:24
Fanatics🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.97%EV -6.12%E -4.74%K -21.09%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.91%EV -8.01%E -0.844%K -0.943%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -3.54%E -0.643%K -0.786%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 17:04
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -5.39%E -4.14%K -17.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -8.01%E -0.844%K -0.943%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -12.31%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 17:05
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -5.39%E -4.14%K -17.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -8.01%E -0.844%K -0.943%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -12.31%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 17:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -5.39%E -4.14%K -17.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -8.01%E -0.844%K -0.943%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -12.31%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 17:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -5.39%E -4.14%K -17.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -8.01%E -0.844%K -0.943%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -12.31%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 17:05
theScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.75%EV -6.12%E -4.74%K -21.09%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -8.01%E -0.844%K -0.943%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -12.31%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 17:15
Bet Right🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.64%EV -6.84%E -5.35%K -24.44%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -8.01%E -0.844%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.71%EV -14.06%E -2.87%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 17:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 71.45%EV -11.21%E -9.19%K -50.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.18%EV -8.01%E -0.844%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.37%EV -21.08%E -4.68%K -6.02%G +0.000%14.7%2026-04-11 17:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 72.88%EV -10.48%E -8.52%K -45.57%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.54%EV -8.98%E -0.956%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.58%EV -10.55%E -2.07%K -2.57%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-11 17:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 72.88%EV -10.48%E -8.52%K -45.57%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.54%EV -8.98%E -0.956%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.58%EV -10.55%E -2.07%K -2.57%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-11 17:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.19%EV -7.57%E -5.96%K -28.04%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.77%EV -10.43%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.03%EV -16.69%E -3.51%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-11 17:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 73.17%EV -13.39%E -11.25%K -70.49%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.41%EV -10.43%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.41%EV -12.31%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-11 17:20
Betsson🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.59%EV -7.57%E -5.96%K -28.04%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.02%EV -10.92%E -1.19%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.39%EV -7.05%E -1.33%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-11 17:25
BetMGM🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.27%EV -4.66%E -3.56%K -15.03%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.52%EV -12.86%E -1.43%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -3.54%E -0.643%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 17:10
NordicBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.27%EV -6.84%E -5.35%K -24.44%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -12.86%E -1.43%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -7.05%E -1.33%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 17:10
Betway🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -6.12%E -4.74%K -21.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -12.86%E -1.43%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -12.31%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 17:09
PlayUp🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.52%EV -6.84%E -5.35%K -24.44%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -12.86%E -1.43%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.31%EV -12.31%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-11 17:05
Sky Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 71.39%EV -11.21%E -9.19%K -50.95%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.68%EV -12.86%E -1.43%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.93%EV -19.32%E -4.20%K -5.37%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-11 17:13
Unibet (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 72.41%EV -10.48%E -8.52%K -45.57%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.12%EV -14.79%E -1.68%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.46%EV -10.55%E -2.07%K -2.57%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-11 17:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.21%EV -9.75%E -7.87%K -40.64%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.23%EV -15.28%E -1.75%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.56%EV -10.55%E -2.07%K -2.57%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-11 17:25
Unibet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.77%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -17.70%E -2.08%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -16.69%E -3.51%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 17:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.77%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -17.70%E -2.08%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -16.69%E -3.51%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 17:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.77%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -17.70%E -2.08%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -16.69%E -3.51%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 17:10
BetRivers🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.77%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -17.70%E -2.08%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -16.69%E -3.51%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 17:10
Grosvenor🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.77%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -17.70%E -2.08%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -16.69%E -3.51%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 17:09
TABtouch🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.77%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -17.70%E -2.08%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -16.69%E -3.51%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 17:10
Casumo🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.77%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -17.70%E -2.08%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -16.69%E -3.51%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 17:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.77%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -17.70%E -2.08%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -16.69%E -3.51%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 17:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.77%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -17.70%E -2.08%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -16.69%E -3.51%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 17:10
betPARX🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.77%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -17.70%E -2.08%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -16.69%E -3.51%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 17:10
BoyleSports🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.58%EV -9.03%E -7.22%K -36.11%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -17.70%E -2.08%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -12.31%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-11 17:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -22.54%E -2.82%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.42%EV -17.57%E -3.74%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-11 17:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -22.54%E -2.82%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.42%EV -17.57%E -3.74%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-11 17:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -3.93%E -2.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -22.54%E -2.82%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.42%EV -17.57%E -3.74%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-11 17:10
Neds🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.46%EV -6.12%E -4.74%K -21.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -22.54%E -2.82%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -12.31%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 17:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.12%EV -8.30%E -6.59%K -31.92%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -22.54%E -2.82%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.52%EV -3.54%E -0.643%K -0.786%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 17:25
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.62%EV -6.84%E -5.35%K -24.44%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -22.54%E -2.82%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV -12.31%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-11 17:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.62%EV -6.84%E -5.35%K -24.44%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -22.54%E -2.82%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV -12.31%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-11 17:10
LeoVegas🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.20%EV -5.39%E -4.14%K -17.96%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.24%EV -22.54%E -2.82%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -19.32%E -4.20%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-11 17:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.40%EV -7.57%E -5.96%K -28.04%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.02%EV -22.54%E -2.82%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.59%EV -21.08%E -4.68%K -6.02%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-11 17:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 71.43%EV -10.48%E -8.52%K -45.57%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.34%EV -24.96%E -3.22%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.23%EV -10.55%E -2.07%K -2.57%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-11 17:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.31I 76.34%NM 75.58%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.50%1.0%2026-04-11 17:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.31I 76.34%NM 75.58%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.50%1.0%2026-04-11 17:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.31I 76.34%NM 75.58%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.50%1.0%2026-04-11 17:05
Matchbook1.31I 76.34%NM 75.58%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.50%1.0%2026-04-11 17:05
Smarkets1.30I 76.92%NM 75.72%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.87%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.41%1.6%2026-04-11 17:10