Language:English
Modena v Padova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Modena (Local)
Prediction 64.29%1.56fair odd
EV -3.56%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -7.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.73%64.23%64.18%65.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.451.441.5076.92%69.19%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Padova (Visit)
Prediction 13.79%7.25fair odd
EV +9.50%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +1.37%
Growth +0.130%
assuming max odds 7.94
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.12%13.68%13.94%15.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.706.596.507.9417.54%15.17%15.38%12.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.92%4.56fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.304%
Kelly -0.391%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.13%22.09%21.88%24.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.034.004.5027.78%24.83%25.00%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Modena (Local): 64.29%; Padova (Visit): 13.79%; Draw: 21.92%. For Padova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.25. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.94, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.50%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.91%EV -6.14%E -4.20%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 7.94I 12.59%NM 12.12%EV +9.50%E +1.20%K +1.37%G +0.130% | 4.38I 22.83%NM 21.97%EV -4.00%E -0.913%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-02-28 13:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.60%EV -6.78%E -4.67%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.27%EV +6.88%E +0.888%K +1.02%G +0.070% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -5.75%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.78%E -4.67%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 7.66I 13.05%NM 12.39%EV +5.64%E +0.736%K +0.847%G +0.048% | 4.29I 23.31%NM 22.13%EV -5.97%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 13:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.86%EV -5.49%E -3.74%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.71%EV +3.43%E +0.458%K +0.528%G +0.018% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.43%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.86%EV -5.49%E -3.74%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.71%EV +3.43%E +0.458%K +0.528%G +0.018% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.43%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -9.99%E -7.14%K -24.98%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV +3.43%E +0.458%K +0.528%G +0.018% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -7.94%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-28 13:43 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.75%EV -8.71%E -6.13%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV +3.43%E +0.458%K +0.528%G +0.018% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.08%EV -6.78%E -4.67%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -3.56%E -0.809%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.74%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-28 13:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.90%EV -8.06%E -5.64%K -18.75%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.84%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.21%EV -8.06%E -5.64%K -18.75%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.67%EV -11.23%E -2.77%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-02-28 13:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.21%EV -8.06%E -5.64%K -18.75%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.67%EV -11.23%E -2.77%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-02-28 13:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.55%EV -8.71%E -6.13%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.09%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.36%EV -10.14%E -2.47%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -9.99%E -7.14%K -24.98%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-02-28 13:46 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -9.99%E -7.14%K -24.98%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -9.99%E -7.14%K -24.98%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.51%EV -5.49%E -3.74%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.94%EV -6.22%E -0.915%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.55%EV -3.56%E -0.809%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.24%EV -4.85%E -3.28%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -10.36%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.13%EV -1.37%E -0.304%K -0.391%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 13:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.41%EV -6.78%E -4.67%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -10.36%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -3.56%E -0.809%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.25%EV -6.78%E -4.67%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -10.36%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -4.66%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.09%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.20%EV -10.36%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.09%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.20%EV -10.36%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.07%EV -6.78%E -4.67%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV -10.36%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-02-28 13:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -10.36%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.52%EV -9.99%E -7.14%K -24.98%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.68%EV -10.36%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -14.52%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 64.46%EV -16.42%E -12.63%K -54.74%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 12.89%EV -10.36%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 22.65%EV -18.90%E -5.11%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 19.3% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -9.99%E -7.14%K -24.98%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.31%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.81%EV -10.14%E -2.47%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-02-28 13:44 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 64.11%EV -13.85%E -10.34%K -40.74%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 13.86%EV -14.50%E -2.34%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.03%EV -14.52%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-02-28 13:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.76%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.94%EV -15.87%E -2.60%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.30%EV -17.81%E -4.75%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.76%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.94%EV -15.87%E -2.60%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.30%EV -17.81%E -4.75%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.66%EV -8.06%E -5.64%K -18.75%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -17.25%E -2.88%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.17%EV -5.75%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.73%EV -4.85%E -3.28%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -17.25%E -2.88%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.29%EV -18.90%E -5.11%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.16%EV -9.99%E -7.14%K -24.98%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.74%EV -17.25%E -2.88%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 63.15%EV -10.64%E -7.65%K -27.27%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.63%EV -17.25%E -2.88%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.22%EV -13.42%E -3.40%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 61.64%EV -9.99%E -7.14%K -24.98%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.38%EV -17.25%E -2.88%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.97%EV -21.10%E -5.86%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 15.9% | 2026-02-28 09:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.10%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -20.70%E -3.60%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.10%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -20.70%E -3.60%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.10%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -20.70%E -3.60%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 63.18%EV -10.64%E -7.65%K -27.27%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.41%EV -21.39%E -3.75%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.42%EV -10.14%E -2.47%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.51% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.85% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63% | 0.4% | 2026-02-28 13:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.51% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.85% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63% | 0.4% | 2026-02-28 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.47% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.06% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47% | 1.1% | 2026-02-28 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.47% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.06% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47% | 1.1% | 2026-02-28 13:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.13% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.99% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.87% | 1.7% | 2026-02-28 13:55 |