L’École des cotes

Modena v Padova

Coup d’envoi : 2026-02-28 14:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

54 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Modena (Local)

Prévision 64.29%1.56cote équitable
EV -3.56%
Avantage -2.38%
Kelly -7.13%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
60.73%64.23%64.18%65.91%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.301.451.441.5076.92%69.19%69.44%66.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Padova (Visiteur)

Prévision 13.79%7.25cote équitable
EV +9.50%
Avantage +1.20%
Kelly +1.37%
Croissance +0.130%

avec la cote maximale 7.94

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
12.12%13.68%13.94%15.55%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
5.706.596.507.9417.54%15.17%15.38%12.59%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 21.92%4.56cote équitable
EV -1.37%
Avantage -0.304%
Kelly -0.391%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.13%22.09%21.88%24.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.604.034.004.5027.78%24.83%25.00%22.22%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (54 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.46I 68.49%NM 65.91%EV -6.14%E -4.20%K -13.34%G +0.000%7.94I 12.59%NM 12.12%EV +9.50%E +1.20%K +1.37%G +0.130%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.97%EV -4.00%E -0.913%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-28 13:55
Coolbet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.60%EV -6.78%E -4.67%K -15.06%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.27%EV +6.88%E +0.888%K +1.02%G +0.070%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -5.75%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-28 13:45
1xBet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.78%E -4.67%K -15.06%G +0.000%7.66I 13.05%NM 12.39%EV +5.64%E +0.736%K +0.847%G +0.048%4.29I 23.31%NM 22.13%EV -5.97%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-28 13:55
LowVig.ag1.47I 68.03%NM 64.86%EV -5.49%E -3.74%K -11.69%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.71%EV +3.43%E +0.458%K +0.528%G +0.018%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.43%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-28 13:45
BetOnline.ag1.47I 68.03%NM 64.86%EV -5.49%E -3.74%K -11.69%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.71%EV +3.43%E +0.458%K +0.528%G +0.018%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.43%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-28 13:45
FanDuel1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -9.99%E -7.14%K -24.98%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV +3.43%E +0.458%K +0.528%G +0.018%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -7.94%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-28 13:43
Tipico (DE)1.42I 70.42%NM 64.75%EV -8.71%E -6.13%K -20.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV +3.43%E +0.458%K +0.528%G +0.018%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 13:45
DraftKings1.45I 68.97%NM 65.08%EV -6.78%E -4.67%K -15.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -3.56%E -0.809%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 13:45
Marathon Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 64.74%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-28 13:55
theScore Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 64.90%EV -8.06%E -5.64%K -18.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.84%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-28 13:45
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 13:45
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 13:45
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 13:45
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 13:45
Bovada1.43I 69.93%NM 64.21%EV -8.06%E -5.64%K -18.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.67%EV -11.23%E -2.77%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 13:55
BetUS1.43I 69.93%NM 64.21%EV -8.06%E -5.64%K -18.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.67%EV -11.23%E -2.77%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 13:55
Bet Right1.42I 70.42%NM 64.55%EV -8.71%E -6.13%K -20.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.09%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.36%EV -10.14%E -2.47%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 13:45
SportsBet1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -9.99%E -7.14%K -24.98%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-28 13:46
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -9.99%E -7.14%K -24.98%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-28 13:45
Betr (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -9.99%E -7.14%K -24.98%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -3.46%E -0.495%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-28 13:45
Codere (IT)1.47I 68.03%NM 64.51%EV -5.49%E -3.74%K -11.69%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.94%EV -6.22%E -0.915%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.55%EV -3.56%E -0.809%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 13:45
Fanatics1.48I 67.57%NM 64.24%EV -4.85%E -3.28%K -10.10%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -10.36%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.13%EV -1.37%E -0.304%K -0.391%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-28 13:55
BetMGM1.45I 68.97%NM 64.41%EV -6.78%E -4.67%K -15.06%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -10.36%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -3.56%E -0.809%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 13:45
Unibet (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 64.25%EV -6.78%E -4.67%K -15.06%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -10.36%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -4.66%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-28 13:45
NordicBet1.44I 69.44%NM 64.09%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.20%EV -10.36%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 13:45
Betsson1.44I 69.44%NM 64.09%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.20%EV -10.36%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.85%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 13:45
Betway1.45I 68.97%NM 63.07%EV -6.78%E -4.67%K -15.06%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV -10.36%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-28 13:55
Bet Victor1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -10.36%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-28 13:45
Sky Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 63.52%EV -9.99%E -7.14%K -24.98%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.68%EV -10.36%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -14.52%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-28 13:45
PMU (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 64.46%EV -16.42%E -12.63%K -54.74%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 12.89%EV -10.36%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.65%EV -18.90%E -5.11%K -7.00%G +0.000%19.3%2026-02-28 13:45
Unibet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 13:45
LeoVegas (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 13:45
Unibet (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 13:45
BetRivers1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 13:45
Casumo1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 13:45
TABtouch1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 13:45
Unibet (NL)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 13:45
Grosvenor1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 13:45
ATG (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 13:45
Svenska Spel1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 13:45
betPARX1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -16.71%E -4.40%K -5.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 13:45
Betclic (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -9.99%E -7.14%K -24.98%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.31%EV -13.81%E -2.21%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.81%EV -10.14%E -2.47%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-28 13:44
NetBet (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 64.11%EV -13.85%E -10.34%K -40.74%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 13.86%EV -14.50%E -2.34%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.03%EV -14.52%E -3.72%K -5.01%G +0.000%16.4%2026-02-28 13:55
Virgin Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 60.76%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.94%EV -15.87%E -2.60%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.30%EV -17.81%E -4.75%K -6.48%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-28 13:45
LiveScore Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 60.76%EV -3.56%E -2.38%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.94%EV -15.87%E -2.60%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.30%EV -17.81%E -4.75%K -6.48%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-28 13:45
Winamax (DE)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.66%EV -8.06%E -5.64%K -18.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -17.25%E -2.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.17%EV -5.75%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 13:45
LeoVegas1.48I 67.57%NM 60.73%EV -4.85%E -3.28%K -10.10%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -17.25%E -2.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.29%EV -18.90%E -5.11%K -7.00%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-28 13:45
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 63.16%EV -9.99%E -7.14%K -24.98%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.74%EV -17.25%E -2.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%13.1%2026-02-28 13:45
Parions Sport (FR)1.39I 71.94%NM 63.15%EV -10.64%E -7.65%K -27.27%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.63%EV -17.25%E -2.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.22%EV -13.42%E -3.40%K -4.55%G +0.000%13.9%2026-02-28 13:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 61.64%EV -9.99%E -7.14%K -24.98%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.38%EV -17.25%E -2.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.97%EV -21.10%E -5.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%15.9%2026-02-28 09:14
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 62.10%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -20.70%E -3.60%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-28 13:45
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 62.10%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -20.70%E -3.60%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-28 13:45
Neds1.44I 69.44%NM 62.10%EV -7.42%E -5.15%K -16.87%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -20.70%E -3.60%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -12.33%E -3.08%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-28 13:45
Winamax (FR)1.39I 71.94%NM 63.18%EV -10.64%E -7.65%K -27.27%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.41%EV -21.39%E -3.75%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.42%EV -10.14%E -2.47%K -3.27%G +0.000%13.9%2026-02-28 13:45
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.52I 65.79%NM 65.51%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.85%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63%0.4%2026-02-28 13:55
Matchbook1.52I 65.79%NM 65.51%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.85%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63%0.4%2026-02-28 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.51I 66.23%NM 65.47%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.06%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%1.1%2026-02-28 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.51I 66.23%NM 65.47%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.06%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%1.1%2026-02-28 13:55
Smarkets1.51I 66.23%NM 65.13%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.99%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.87%1.7%2026-02-28 13:55