Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Modena v Empoli

2026-09-20 17:30 UTC — Serie B - Italy

Head to Head

42 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Modena (Local)

Prediction 55.93%1.79fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -5.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.66%55.90%56.01%57.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.661.661.7264.94%60.22%60.24%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Empoli (Visit)

Prediction 18.59%5.38fair odd
EV +0.031%
Edge +0.006%
Kelly +0.007%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.62%18.66%18.52%20.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.784.705.3823.53%20.94%21.28%18.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.47%3.93fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -0.502%
Kelly -0.678%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.43%25.44%25.47%26.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.573.603.8530.30%28.00%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Modena (Local): 55.93%; Empoli (Visit): 18.59%; Draw: 25.47%. For Empoli (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.378. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.380, producing a positive expected value of +0.031%.

Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.44%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%5.38I 18.59%NM 17.62%EV +0.031%E +0.006%K +0.007%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -3.20%E -0.843%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-13 18:56
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.82%EV -5.47%E -3.24%K -7.93%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -2.39%E -0.455%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 18:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.51%EV -5.47%E -3.24%K -7.93%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.36%EV -3.32%E -0.638%K -0.790%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.13%EV -3.20%E -0.843%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-13 18:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.26%EV -8.83%E -5.42%K -14.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.30%EV -5.18%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.43%EV -2.70%E -0.706%K -0.956%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 19:00
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%5.03I 19.88%NM 18.64%EV -6.48%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.54%EV -2.70%E -0.706%K -0.956%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 19:06
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.13%EV -4.91%E -2.89%K -7.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -7.03%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.78%EV -1.93%E -0.502%K -0.678%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 18:50
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.33%EV -5.47%E -3.24%K -7.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -7.03%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 19:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.92%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -7.03%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-13 18:50
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.21%EV -6.59%E -3.95%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -7.03%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -10.85%E -3.10%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-13 18:45
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.21%EV -6.59%E -3.95%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -7.03%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -10.85%E -3.10%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-13 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.21%EV -6.59%E -3.95%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -7.03%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -10.85%E -3.10%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-13 18:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.21%EV -6.59%E -3.95%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -7.03%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -10.85%E -3.10%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-13 18:45
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.76%EV -9.39%E -5.79%K -15.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -7.03%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -5.75%E -1.55%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 18:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.90%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -8.89%E -1.82%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -7.03%E -1.92%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-13 19:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.90%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -8.89%E -1.82%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -7.03%E -1.92%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-13 19:20
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.69%EV -8.89%E -1.82%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.80%EV -9.57%E -2.70%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 18:50
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.69%EV -8.89%E -1.82%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.80%EV -9.57%E -2.70%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 18:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.76%EV -9.39%E -5.79%K -15.14%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.43%EV -8.89%E -1.82%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -10.85%E -3.10%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 18:56
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV -6.59%E -3.95%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -11.68%E -2.46%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -5.75%E -1.55%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 18:50
Bet Right🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -11.68%E -2.46%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -5.75%E -1.55%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 18:50
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -3.79%E -2.21%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -12.61%E -2.68%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 19:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -3.79%E -2.21%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -12.61%E -2.68%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 19:00
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -3.79%E -2.21%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -12.61%E -2.68%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 19:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -3.79%E -2.21%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -12.61%E -2.68%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 19:00
Grosvenor🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -3.79%E -2.21%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -12.61%E -2.68%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 19:00
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -3.79%E -2.21%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -12.61%E -2.68%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 19:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -3.79%E -2.21%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -12.61%E -2.68%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 19:00
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -3.79%E -2.21%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -12.61%E -2.68%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 19:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -3.79%E -2.21%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -12.61%E -2.68%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 19:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.78%EV -12.18%E -7.76%K -21.37%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.83%EV -13.54%E -2.91%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.38%EV -12.12%E -3.51%K -4.95%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-13 18:49
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -6.59%E -3.95%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -14.47%E -3.15%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-13 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.23%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -14.47%E -3.15%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -13.39%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 19:20
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.23%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -14.47%E -3.15%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -13.39%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 19:20
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.23%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -14.47%E -3.15%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -13.39%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 19:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.67%EV -11.62%E -7.36%K -20.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.55%EV -16.33%E -3.63%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.78%EV -9.57%E -2.70%K -3.75%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-13 18:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 55.50%EV -13.86%E -9.00%K -25.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.99%EV -16.33%E -3.63%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.51%EV -14.67%E -4.38%K -6.24%G +0.000%17.0%2026-09-13 18:50
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.66%EV -6.59%E -3.95%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.37%EV -18.19%E -4.13%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.97%EV -12.12%E -3.51%K -4.95%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-13 19:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.81%EV -7.15%E -4.31%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.30%EV -18.19%E -4.13%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.89%EV -12.12%E -3.51%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 19:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.81%EV -7.15%E -4.31%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.30%EV -18.19%E -4.13%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.89%EV -12.12%E -3.51%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 19:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 53.96%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.23%EV -18.19%E -4.13%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.81%EV -12.12%E -3.51%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 19:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 55.35%EV -12.74%E -8.17%K -22.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.62%EV -18.19%E -4.13%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.03%EV -12.12%E -3.51%K -4.95%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-13 18:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 54.20%EV -12.18%E -7.76%K -21.37%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.02%EV -20.98%E -4.94%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.78%EV -15.94%E -4.83%K -6.93%G +0.000%17.5%2026-09-13 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.57I 63.69%NM 54.57%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.47%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.96%16.7%2026-09-13 18:50