Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Modena v Empoli

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 17:33 UTC

Final: Modena 2–1 Empoli

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Modena (Local)

Prediction 64.42%1.55fair odd
EV -1.43%
Edge -0.936%
Kelly -2.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.93%64.16%64.52%66.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.451.451.5375.76%69.20%68.97%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Empoli (Visit)

Prediction 13.72%7.29fair odd
EV +2.88%
Edge +0.384%
Kelly +0.443%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.52%13.85%13.66%16.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.506.507.5018.52%15.38%15.38%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.86%4.57fair odd
EV -1.20%
Edge -0.265%
Kelly -0.340%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.73%21.99%21.82%24.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.114.004.5227.40%24.35%25.00%22.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Modena (Local): 64.42%; Empoli (Visit): 13.72%; Draw: 21.86%. For Empoli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.29. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.88%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.13%EV -8.52%E -6.00%K -20.28%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV +2.88%E +0.384%K +0.443%G +0.013%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -3.82%E -0.868%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-20 17:24
SportsBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.52%EV -9.16%E -6.50%K -22.35%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.74%EV -0.550%E -0.076%K -0.088%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -7.10%E -1.67%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-20 17:24
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.94%EV -4.01%E -2.69%K -8.18%G +0.000%7.24I 13.81%NM 13.16%EV -0.688%E -0.095%K -0.110%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.90%EV -9.07%E -2.18%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 17:24
Codere (IT)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.63%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.22%EV -1.24%E -0.172%K -0.199%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%EV -1.63%E -0.363%K -0.467%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 17:29
DraftKings🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.76%EV -5.30%E -3.60%K -11.27%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.60%EV -3.98%E -0.569%K -0.663%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.64%EV -3.82%E -0.868%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 17:24
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.28%EV -4.65%E -3.14%K -9.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.59%EV -3.98%E -0.569%K -0.663%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 17:24
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.28%EV -4.65%E -3.14%K -9.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.59%EV -3.98%E -0.569%K -0.663%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 17:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.91%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -3.98%E -0.569%K -0.663%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.64%EV -4.91%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 17:24
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.33%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -3.98%E -0.569%K -0.663%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -14.75%E -3.78%K -5.09%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-20 17:29
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -9.81%E -7.01%K -24.52%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -3.98%E -0.569%K -0.663%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 17:28
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -9.81%E -7.01%K -24.52%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -3.98%E -0.569%K -0.663%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 17:28
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -12.38%E -9.11%K -34.40%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -3.98%E -0.569%K -0.663%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-20 17:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.01%EV -7.87%E -5.51%K -18.31%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.38%EV -4.67%E -0.671%K -0.784%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.62%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 17:29
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.74%EV -4.01%E -2.69%K -8.18%G +0.000%6.93I 14.43%NM 13.92%EV -4.94%E -0.713%K -0.833%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.34%EV -1.20%E -0.265%K -0.340%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-20 17:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.50%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.75%EV -6.72%E -0.989%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 17:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.50%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.75%EV -6.72%E -0.989%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 17:24
BetUS🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.50%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.75%EV -6.72%E -0.989%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 17:24
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.81%EV -8.52%E -6.00%K -20.28%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.53%EV -6.72%E -0.989%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -7.10%E -1.67%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 17:29
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.81%EV -8.52%E -6.00%K -20.28%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.53%EV -6.72%E -0.989%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -7.10%E -1.67%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 17:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.61%EV -9.81%E -7.01%K -24.52%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.51%EV -6.72%E -0.989%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -3.82%E -0.868%K -1.12%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-20 17:24
Bovada🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.27%EV -5.94%E -4.07%K -12.92%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -7.41%E -1.10%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 17:25
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.10%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.77%EV -7.41%E -1.10%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 17:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.40%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.62%EV -7.41%E -1.10%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 17:24
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.19%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -10.84%E -1.67%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.49%EV -5.35%E -1.24%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 17:24
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -10.84%E -1.67%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-20 17:24
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.42%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -10.84%E -1.67%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -10.38%E -2.53%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 17:24
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -10.84%E -1.67%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 17:24
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -10.84%E -1.67%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 17:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -10.84%E -1.67%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 17:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -10.84%E -1.67%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 17:24
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.51%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.94%EV -10.84%E -1.67%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -15.84%E -4.11%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-20 17:24
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -9.81%E -7.01%K -24.52%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -10.84%E -1.67%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-20 17:19
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -3.36%E -2.24%K -6.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 17:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -3.36%E -2.24%K -6.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 17:24
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -3.36%E -2.24%K -6.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 17:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -3.36%E -2.24%K -6.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 17:24
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -3.36%E -2.24%K -6.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 17:24
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -3.36%E -2.24%K -6.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 17:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -3.36%E -2.24%K -6.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 17:24
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -3.36%E -2.24%K -6.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 17:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -3.36%E -2.24%K -6.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 17:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.68%EV -9.16%E -6.50%K -22.35%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.59%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -3.82%E -0.868%K -1.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-20 17:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.72%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.55%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 17:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 64.03%EV -11.74%E -8.57%K -31.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.04%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.93%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-20 17:29
NetBet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 63.30%EV -10.45%E -7.52%K -26.80%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.42%EV -16.33%E -2.68%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.28%EV -13.66%E -3.46%K -4.63%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-20 17:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 64.31%EV -14.96%E -11.33%K -46.75%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 13.92%EV -16.33%E -2.68%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.77%EV -14.75%E -3.78%K -5.09%G +0.000%17.8%2026-09-20 17:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -17.70%E -2.95%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 17:24
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -17.70%E -2.95%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 17:24
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -17.70%E -2.95%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 17:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 64.00%EV -10.45%E -7.52%K -26.80%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -17.70%E -2.95%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.18%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-20 17:29
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.16%EV -9.81%E -7.01%K -24.52%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.74%EV -17.70%E -2.95%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-20 17:23
Virgin Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.13%EV -5.94%E -4.07%K -12.92%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.39%EV -20.44%E -3.52%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -16.93%E -4.46%K -6.05%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-20 17:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.13%EV -5.94%E -4.07%K -12.92%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.39%EV -20.44%E -3.52%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -16.93%E -4.46%K -6.05%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-20 17:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.45%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.43%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.26%EV -20.44%E -3.52%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.29%EV -16.93%E -4.46%K -6.05%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-20 17:24
PMU (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.22%EV -9.81%E -7.01%K -24.52%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.30%EV -23.18%E -4.14%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.48%EV -20.21%E -5.54%K -7.63%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-20 17:24
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.93%EV -1.43%E -0.936%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.70%EV -25.93%E -4.80%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -19.12%E -5.17%K -7.08%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-20 17:16
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.27%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.61%0.6%2026-09-20 17:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.27%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.61%0.6%2026-09-20 17:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.27%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.61%0.6%2026-09-20 17:29
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.27%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.61%0.6%2026-09-20 17:29
Matchbook◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.61%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.82%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58%0.8%2026-09-20 17:29