Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Modena v Empoli

2026-09-20 17:30 UTC — Serie B - Italy

Resultado del partido

42 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Modena (Local)

Predicción 55.93%1.79momio equitativo
EV -3.79%
Ventaja -2.21%
Kelly -5.27%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.72

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.66%55.90%56.01%57.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.541.661.661.7264.94%60.22%60.24%58.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empoli (Visitante)

Predicción 18.59%5.38momio equitativo
EV +0.031%
Ventaja +0.006%
Kelly +0.007%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.62%18.66%18.52%20.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.254.784.705.3823.53%20.94%21.28%18.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.47%3.93momio equitativo
EV -1.93%
Ventaja -0.502%
Kelly -0.678%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.43%25.44%25.47%26.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.573.603.8530.30%28.00%27.78%25.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Modena (Local): 55.93%; Empoli (Visitante): 18.59%; Empate: 25.47%. Para Empoli (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 5.378. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 5.380, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.031%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (42 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.44%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%5.38I 18.59%NM 17.62%EV +0.031%E +0.006%K +0.007%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -3.20%E -0.843%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-13 18:56
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.82%EV -5.47%E -3.24%K -7.93%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -2.39%E -0.455%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 18:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.51%EV -5.47%E -3.24%K -7.93%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.36%EV -3.32%E -0.638%K -0.790%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.13%EV -3.20%E -0.843%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-13 18:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.26%EV -8.83%E -5.42%K -14.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.30%EV -5.18%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.43%EV -2.70%E -0.706%K -0.956%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 19:00
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%5.03I 19.88%NM 18.64%EV -6.48%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.54%EV -2.70%E -0.706%K -0.956%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 19:06
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.13%EV -4.91%E -2.89%K -7.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -7.03%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.78%EV -1.93%E -0.502%K -0.678%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 18:50
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.33%EV -5.47%E -3.24%K -7.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -7.03%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 19:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.92%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -7.03%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-13 18:50
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.21%EV -6.59%E -3.95%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -7.03%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -10.85%E -3.10%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-13 18:45
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.21%EV -6.59%E -3.95%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -7.03%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -10.85%E -3.10%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-13 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.21%EV -6.59%E -3.95%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -7.03%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -10.85%E -3.10%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-13 18:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.21%EV -6.59%E -3.95%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -7.03%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -10.85%E -3.10%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-13 18:45
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.76%EV -9.39%E -5.79%K -15.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -7.03%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -5.75%E -1.55%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 18:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.90%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -8.89%E -1.82%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -7.03%E -1.92%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-13 19:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.90%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -8.89%E -1.82%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -7.03%E -1.92%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-13 19:20
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.69%EV -8.89%E -1.82%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.80%EV -9.57%E -2.70%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 18:50
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.69%EV -8.89%E -1.82%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.80%EV -9.57%E -2.70%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 18:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.76%EV -9.39%E -5.79%K -15.14%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.43%EV -8.89%E -1.82%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -10.85%E -3.10%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 18:56
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV -6.59%E -3.95%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -11.68%E -2.46%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -5.75%E -1.55%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 18:50
Bet Right🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -11.68%E -2.46%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -5.75%E -1.55%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 18:50
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -3.79%E -2.21%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -12.61%E -2.68%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 19:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -3.79%E -2.21%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -12.61%E -2.68%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 19:00
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -3.79%E -2.21%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -12.61%E -2.68%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 19:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -3.79%E -2.21%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -12.61%E -2.68%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 19:00
Grosvenor🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -3.79%E -2.21%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -12.61%E -2.68%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 19:00
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -3.79%E -2.21%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -12.61%E -2.68%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 19:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -3.79%E -2.21%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -12.61%E -2.68%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 19:00
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -3.79%E -2.21%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -12.61%E -2.68%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 19:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -3.79%E -2.21%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -12.61%E -2.68%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 19:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.78%EV -12.18%E -7.76%K -21.37%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.83%EV -13.54%E -2.91%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.38%EV -12.12%E -3.51%K -4.95%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-13 18:49
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -6.59%E -3.95%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -14.47%E -3.15%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-13 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.23%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -14.47%E -3.15%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -13.39%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 19:20
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.23%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -14.47%E -3.15%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -13.39%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 19:20
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.23%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -14.47%E -3.15%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -13.39%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 19:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.67%EV -11.62%E -7.36%K -20.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.55%EV -16.33%E -3.63%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.78%EV -9.57%E -2.70%K -3.75%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-13 18:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 55.50%EV -13.86%E -9.00%K -25.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.99%EV -16.33%E -3.63%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.51%EV -14.67%E -4.38%K -6.24%G +0.000%17.0%2026-09-13 18:50
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.66%EV -6.59%E -3.95%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.37%EV -18.19%E -4.13%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.97%EV -12.12%E -3.51%K -4.95%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-13 19:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.81%EV -7.15%E -4.31%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.30%EV -18.19%E -4.13%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.89%EV -12.12%E -3.51%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 19:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.81%EV -7.15%E -4.31%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.30%EV -18.19%E -4.13%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.89%EV -12.12%E -3.51%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 19:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 53.96%EV -7.71%E -4.67%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.23%EV -18.19%E -4.13%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.81%EV -12.12%E -3.51%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 19:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 55.35%EV -12.74%E -8.17%K -22.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.62%EV -18.19%E -4.13%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.03%EV -12.12%E -3.51%K -4.95%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-13 18:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 54.20%EV -12.18%E -7.76%K -21.37%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.02%EV -20.98%E -4.94%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.78%EV -15.94%E -4.83%K -6.93%G +0.000%17.5%2026-09-13 19:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (1)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets1.57I 63.69%NM 54.57%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.47%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.96%16.7%2026-09-13 18:50