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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Modena v Empoli

Inicio: 2026-09-20 17:33 UTC

Final: Modena 2–1 Empoli

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Modena (Local)

Predicción 64.42%1.55momio equitativo
EV -1.43%
Ventaja -0.936%
Kelly -2.70%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.53

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.93%64.16%64.52%66.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.321.451.451.5375.76%69.20%68.97%65.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empoli (Visitante)

Predicción 13.72%7.29momio equitativo
EV +2.88%
Ventaja +0.384%
Kelly +0.443%
Crecimiento +0.013%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.52%13.85%13.66%16.70%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.406.506.507.5018.52%15.38%15.38%13.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.86%4.57momio equitativo
EV -1.20%
Ventaja -0.265%
Kelly -0.340%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.52

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.73%21.99%21.82%24.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.654.114.004.5227.40%24.35%25.00%22.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Modena (Local): 64.42%; Empoli (Visitante): 13.72%; Empate: 21.86%. Para Empoli (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 7.29. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 7.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.88%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
FanDuel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.13%EV -8.52%E -6.00%K -20.28%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV +2.88%E +0.384%K +0.443%G +0.013%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -3.82%E -0.868%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-20 17:24
SportsBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.52%EV -9.16%E -6.50%K -22.35%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.74%EV -0.550%E -0.076%K -0.088%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -7.10%E -1.67%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-20 17:24
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.94%EV -4.01%E -2.69%K -8.18%G +0.000%7.24I 13.81%NM 13.16%EV -0.688%E -0.095%K -0.110%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.90%EV -9.07%E -2.18%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 17:24
Codere (IT)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.63%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.22%EV -1.24%E -0.172%K -0.199%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%EV -1.63%E -0.363%K -0.467%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 17:29
DraftKings🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.76%EV -5.30%E -3.60%K -11.27%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.60%EV -3.98%E -0.569%K -0.663%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.64%EV -3.82%E -0.868%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 17:24
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.28%EV -4.65%E -3.14%K -9.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.59%EV -3.98%E -0.569%K -0.663%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 17:24
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.28%EV -4.65%E -3.14%K -9.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.59%EV -3.98%E -0.569%K -0.663%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 17:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.91%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -3.98%E -0.569%K -0.663%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.64%EV -4.91%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 17:24
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.33%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -3.98%E -0.569%K -0.663%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -14.75%E -3.78%K -5.09%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-20 17:29
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -9.81%E -7.01%K -24.52%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -3.98%E -0.569%K -0.663%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 17:28
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -9.81%E -7.01%K -24.52%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -3.98%E -0.569%K -0.663%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 17:28
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -12.38%E -9.11%K -34.40%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -3.98%E -0.569%K -0.663%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-20 17:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.01%EV -7.87%E -5.51%K -18.31%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.38%EV -4.67%E -0.671%K -0.784%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.62%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 17:29
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.74%EV -4.01%E -2.69%K -8.18%G +0.000%6.93I 14.43%NM 13.92%EV -4.94%E -0.713%K -0.833%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.34%EV -1.20%E -0.265%K -0.340%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-20 17:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.50%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.75%EV -6.72%E -0.989%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 17:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.50%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.75%EV -6.72%E -0.989%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 17:24
BetUS🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.50%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.75%EV -6.72%E -0.989%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 17:24
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.81%EV -8.52%E -6.00%K -20.28%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.53%EV -6.72%E -0.989%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -7.10%E -1.67%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 17:29
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.81%EV -8.52%E -6.00%K -20.28%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.53%EV -6.72%E -0.989%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -7.10%E -1.67%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 17:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.61%EV -9.81%E -7.01%K -24.52%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.51%EV -6.72%E -0.989%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -3.82%E -0.868%K -1.12%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-20 17:24
Bovada🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.27%EV -5.94%E -4.07%K -12.92%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -7.41%E -1.10%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 17:25
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.10%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.77%EV -7.41%E -1.10%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 17:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.40%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.62%EV -7.41%E -1.10%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 17:24
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.19%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -10.84%E -1.67%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.49%EV -5.35%E -1.24%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 17:24
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -10.84%E -1.67%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-20 17:24
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.42%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -10.84%E -1.67%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -10.38%E -2.53%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 17:24
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -10.84%E -1.67%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 17:24
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -10.84%E -1.67%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 17:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -10.84%E -1.67%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 17:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -10.84%E -1.67%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 17:24
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.51%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.94%EV -10.84%E -1.67%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -15.84%E -4.11%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-20 17:24
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -9.81%E -7.01%K -24.52%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -10.84%E -1.67%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-20 17:19
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -3.36%E -2.24%K -6.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 17:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -3.36%E -2.24%K -6.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 17:24
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -3.36%E -2.24%K -6.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 17:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -3.36%E -2.24%K -6.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 17:24
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -3.36%E -2.24%K -6.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 17:24
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -3.36%E -2.24%K -6.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 17:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -3.36%E -2.24%K -6.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 17:24
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -3.36%E -2.24%K -6.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 17:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -3.36%E -2.24%K -6.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 17:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.68%EV -9.16%E -6.50%K -22.35%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.59%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -3.82%E -0.868%K -1.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-20 17:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.72%EV -6.59%E -4.54%K -14.64%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.55%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 17:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 64.03%EV -11.74%E -8.57%K -31.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.04%EV -14.27%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.93%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-20 17:29
NetBet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 63.30%EV -10.45%E -7.52%K -26.80%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.42%EV -16.33%E -2.68%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.28%EV -13.66%E -3.46%K -4.63%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-20 17:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 64.31%EV -14.96%E -11.33%K -46.75%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 13.92%EV -16.33%E -2.68%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.77%EV -14.75%E -3.78%K -5.09%G +0.000%17.8%2026-09-20 17:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -17.70%E -2.95%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 17:24
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -17.70%E -2.95%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 17:24
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -17.70%E -2.95%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 17:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 64.00%EV -10.45%E -7.52%K -26.80%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -17.70%E -2.95%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.18%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-20 17:29
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.16%EV -9.81%E -7.01%K -24.52%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.74%EV -17.70%E -2.95%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-20 17:23
Virgin Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.13%EV -5.94%E -4.07%K -12.92%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.39%EV -20.44%E -3.52%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -16.93%E -4.46%K -6.05%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-20 17:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.13%EV -5.94%E -4.07%K -12.92%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.39%EV -20.44%E -3.52%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -16.93%E -4.46%K -6.05%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-20 17:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.45%EV -7.23%E -5.02%K -16.43%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.26%EV -20.44%E -3.52%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.29%EV -16.93%E -4.46%K -6.05%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-20 17:24
PMU (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.22%EV -9.81%E -7.01%K -24.52%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.30%EV -23.18%E -4.14%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.48%EV -20.21%E -5.54%K -7.63%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-20 17:24
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.93%EV -1.43%E -0.936%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.70%EV -25.93%E -4.80%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -19.12%E -5.17%K -7.08%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-20 17:16
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.27%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.61%0.6%2026-09-20 17:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.27%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.61%0.6%2026-09-20 17:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.27%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.61%0.6%2026-09-20 17:29
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.27%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.61%0.6%2026-09-20 17:29
Matchbook◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.61%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.82%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58%0.8%2026-09-20 17:29